SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240729): "비트코인을 절대 매도하지 마세요"

At the highly anticipated Bitcoin 2024 Summit on Sunday, US presidential candidate 지우다 delivered a speech as a keynote speaker. Before the speech began, the market realized the expected positives in advance, pushing the price of Bitcoin to a high of 69,500, but after the speech officially began, the bulls quickly realized that the probability of Trumps official announcement of adding BTC to the US strategic reserve was not very high. He regarded this speech more as a presidential campaign canvassing. The market also quickly gave up the previous gains due to the failure of expectations, causing a short-term decline. The options market also shorted volatility in large quantities during the meeting, causing Vol Curve to quickly go down steeply.

출처: TradingView

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol

Although the markets biggest expectation (strategic reserve plan) has failed, Trump has continued to support the crypto market, shouting slogans such as Never sell your Bitcoin! He also said that the first thing he would do on his first day in office was to fire the current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, On day one I will fire Gary Gensler, and even said it twice. The bullish sentiment in the market began to ferment last night, with intraday volatility as high as ~ 3%, challenging the $70,000 mark all the way up, reaching a multi-week high. The front-end IV and Vol Skew also rose along with the price. The overall volatility level of BTC returned to above 55+%, and Vol Skew was around 3%.

In addition, there are other noteworthy points in BTC’s IV curve. First, the overall volatility level has been suppressed since the end of the year, and the term curve has flattened with 27 SEP 24 as the fulcrum. Second, the two expiration dates of 2 AUG and 8 NOV imply a Forward IV of up to 63%/67.5%, which is significantly higher than other maturities.

Source: Deribit (as of 29 JUL 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Source: SignalPlus, 25 dRR

데이터 출처: Deribit, ETH 거래의 전체 분포

데이터 출처: Deribit, BTC 거래의 전체 분포

출처: Deribit 대량매매

출처: Deribit 대량매매

t.signalplus.com에서 SignalPlus 트레이딩 베인 기능을 사용하면 더 많은 실시간 암호화폐 정보를 얻을 수 있습니다. 업데이트를 즉시 받으려면 Twitter 계정 @SignalPlusCN을 팔로우하거나 WeChat 그룹(WeChat 보조원 추가: SignalPlus 123), Telegram 그룹 및 Discord 커뮤니티에 가입하여 더 많은 친구와 소통하고 상호 작용하세요. SignalPlus 공식 웹사이트: https://www.signalplus.com

This article is sourced from the internet: SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240729): “Never Sell Your Bitcoin”

Related: EMC Labs June report: The high interest rate environment of the US dollar is about to end, and BTC will most likely star

Original author: 0xWeilan The information, opinions and judgments on markets, projects, currencies, etc. mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. After the COVID-19 crisis, the story of the United States using the dollars status as the worlds largest reserve currency to reap other economies through the dollar tide seems to be becoming a reality. All economies are under pressure, and the yen-dollar exchange rate has fallen to a low level last seen in 1986. —— On June 5, Canada cut interest rates, and on June 6, the Euro cut interest rates. Why hasn’t the Federal Reserve cut interest rates yet? ——Because only the Japanese yen exchange rate has collapsed, it is not full yet. Europe cant hold on, Canada cant hold on,…