크립토 시장 감정 연구 보고서(2024.06.28-07.05): 다른 사람들은 패닉에 빠지지만 나는 욕심이 많습니다. 바닥을 살 수 있을까요

Others are panicking but I am greedy. Can I buy BTC at the bottom?

1. The German government liquidates a large amount of Bitcoin

On-chain data shows that the German government recently transferred more than $195 million worth of Bitcoin to various crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp, a move that has exacerbated market volatility. Critics believe that such a large-scale government sell-off could have a long-term negative impact on the stability of the crypto market. These Bitcoins originated from an investigation into the illegal website Movie 2 k.to, when approximately 50,000 Bitcoins were seized.

2. Panic has not occurred yet, but irrational emotions are likely to spread

Although the market implied volatility is currently at a low level, it has been on an upward trend in recent years. This shows that market sentiment is beginning to become more unstable. Although panic has not yet occurred, irrational emotions are likely to spread.

3. The opportunity to buy at the bottom comes after the real panic occurs

When there is a real panic in the market, prices tend to fall significantly below the intrinsic value of the asset. This is the best time for bargain hunters to exit, as they can buy high-value assets at very attractive prices. Investors should remain calm and wait for further developments in the market to seize the real bargain hunting opportunities.

Specific reference to several time nodes of Bitcoin:

March 2020 -33%, implied volatility 190

Bitcoin Performance: In March 2020, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of around $4,000. The crash became known as “Black Thursday,” as Bitcoin plunged more than 50% from a high of around $9,000 in just a few days.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite the panic in the market, the plunge also provided an excellent opportunity for bottom-pickers. As governments and central banks around the world launched massive economic stimulus plans, Bitcoin rebounded rapidly in the following months, recovering and breaking through the all-time high of $20,000 by the end of the year.

May 2021 -45%, implied volatility 160

Bitcoin Performance: In May 2021, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of around $30,000. The plunge was about half of Bitcoin’s value from its all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite the panic selling in the market, bottom-pickers and long-term investors quickly stepped in, believing that the long-term prospects of Bitcoin remained optimistic. Subsequently, the price of Bitcoin gradually recovered and broke through the $60,000 level again by the end of 2021.

June and November 2022 -22%, implied volatility 110

Bitcoin Performance: In November 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of approximately $16,000. The plunge reflected a significant blow to market confidence in the crypto industry, especially a crisis of confidence in some major trading platforms.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite this, some investors believe that this is a great entry point for long-term holding of Bitcoin. As the market gradually digested the negative news, the price of Bitcoin stabilized in the following months and showed some signs of rebound.

July 2024 -8%, implied volatility rises to 57.5, bottom-fishing still needs to wait

Although the current market implied volatility has increased, it has not yet reached a real panic level. Investors should pay close attention to market trends and wait for more obvious panic signals to appear before buying at the bottom.

요약하다

The plunges and subsequent bottoms at the above time points provide valuable lessons for investors. Short-term market fluctuations should not affect the assessment of the long-term value of Bitcoin. After waiting for panic selling to occur, calm investors can often find undervalued assets and get rich returns when the market recovers.

There are about 24 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.08.01)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

시장 기술 및 정서 환경 분석

감정 분석 구성 요소

기술 지표

가격 추세

BTC price fell -7.55% and ETH price fell -11.32% in the past week.

위 사진은 지난주 BTC 가격 차트입니다.

위 사진은 지난주 ETH 가격 차트입니다.

지난주 가격변동률을 보여주는 표입니다.

가격 분포 차트(지지 및 저항)

Over the past week, BTC and ETH continued to fall after breaking down from the dense trading area at 7.04.

위 그림은 지난주 BTC의 밀집된 거래 지역 분포를 보여줍니다.

위 그림은 지난주 ETH 밀집 거래 지역의 분포를 보여줍니다.

표는 지난주 BTC와 ETH의 주간 집중 거래 범위를 보여줍니다.

거래량 및 미결제약정

Over the past week, BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they fell on July 4; open interest for both BTC and ETH continued to rise.

위 사진의 상단은 BTC의 가격동향, 가운데는 거래량, 하단은 미결제약정, 하늘색은 1일 평균, 주황색은 7일 평균을 나타냅니다. K라인의 색상은 현재 상태를 나타내고, 녹색은 가격 상승이 거래량에 의해 뒷받침됨을 의미하고, 빨간색은 포지션 청산을 의미하며, 노란색은 포지션이 천천히 축적되는 상태, 검은색은 혼잡한 상태를 의미합니다.

위 그림의 상단은 ETH의 가격 추세를 나타내고, 가운데는 거래량, 하단은 미결제약정, 연한 파란색은 1일 평균, 주황색은 7일 평균을 나타냅니다. K라인의 색상은 현재 상태를 나타내고, 녹색은 가격 상승이 거래량에 의해 뒷받침됨을 의미하고, 빨간색은 포지션 청산, 노란색은 포지션이 서서히 축적되고 있음, 검은색은 혼잡함을 의미합니다.

역사적 변동성과 내재된 변동성

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when it fell to 7.4; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH rose simultaneously.

노란색 선은 과거 변동성, 파란색 선은 내재 변동성, 빨간색 점은 7일 평균입니다.

이벤트 중심

No data was released in the past week.

감정 지표

모멘텀 감정

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.

위 그림은 지난주 다양한 자산의 추세를 보여줍니다.

대출금리_대출심리

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 11.4%, and short-term interest rates remained at 12.8%.

노란색 선은 USD 금리 최고가, 파란색 선은 최고가 75%, 빨간색 선은 최고가 75%의 7일 평균입니다.

표는 과거 보유일별 USD 이자율의 평균 수익률을 보여줍니다.

펀딩비율_계약 레버리지 감정

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 10.9%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a low level.

파란색 선은 바이낸스의 BTC 펀딩 비율이고, 빨간색 선은 7일 평균입니다.

표는 과거 보유일별 BTC 수수료의 평균 수익률을 보여줍니다.

시장 상관관계_합의적 감정

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week dropped to around 0.73, and the consistency between different varieties increased significantly.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

시장폭_전반적인 심리

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 3.9% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 16.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 2.3% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 2.3% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market continued to fall.

위 그림은 [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos, etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, 링크, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, 매직, mana, manta, 마스크, matic, meme, mina, mkr, Near, neo, nfp, Ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, 로빈, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui,ushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet,waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30일 비율 각 폭 표시기

요약하다

Over the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continued to fall, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached the highest level during the decline on July 4. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has also increased simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate remains at a low level, which may reflect the continued low leverage sentiment of market participants towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies continue to fall, indicating that the overall market has maintained a weak trend over the past week.

트위터 : @ https://x.com/CTA_ChannelCmt

웹사이트: 채널cmt.com

This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom of BTC?

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