암호화폐 시장 심리 조사 보고서(2024.06.07-06.14): CPI가 예상보다 낮고 금리 회의는 유지됨

CPI is lower than expected, interest rate meeting maintains interest rate

At 20:30 on June 12 (Beijing time), the US CPI was lower than expected. After the data was released, Bitcoin rose from $68,000 to $70,000 in a short period of time, up 3%. After the Fed鈥檚 interest rate meeting at 02:00 on June 13 (Beijing time), the price of Bitcoin fell from $70,000 to $67,000, down -4.3%. Chairman Powell clearly released a message at the subsequent press conference: it is very inappropriate to cut interest rates in a short period of time. Only when the Fed sees more encouraging data and is more confident that inflation can sustainably move closer to the 2% target, can interest rate cuts be put on the agenda.

There are about 45 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.08.01)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

시장 기술 및 정서 환경 분석

감정 분석 구성 요소

기술 지표

가격 추세

BTC price fell -5.69% and ETH price fell -9.02% in the past week.

위 사진은 지난주 BTC 가격 차트입니다.

위 사진은 지난주 ETH 가격 차트입니다.

지난주 가격변동률을 보여주는 표입니다.

가격 분포 차트(지지 및 저항)

In the past week, BTC and ETH broke down from the dense trading area and fluctuated at a low level.

위 그림은 지난주 BTC의 밀집된 거래 지역 분포를 보여줍니다.

위 그림은 지난주 ETH 밀집 거래 지역의 분포를 보여줍니다.

표는 지난주 BTC와 ETH의 주간 집중 거래 범위를 보여줍니다.

거래량 및 미결제약정

In the past week, BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they fell on June 7, followed by the CPI and FOMC events on June 12. The open interest of BTC and ETH both decreased.

위 사진의 상단은 BTC의 가격동향, 가운데는 거래량, 하단은 미결제약정, 하늘색은 1일 평균, 주황색은 7일 평균을 나타냅니다. K라인의 색상은 현재 상태를 나타내고, 녹색은 가격 상승이 거래량에 의해 뒷받침됨을 의미하고, 빨간색은 포지션 청산을 의미하며, 노란색은 포지션이 천천히 축적되는 상태, 검은색은 혼잡한 상태를 의미합니다.

위 그림의 상단은 ETH의 가격 추세를 나타내고, 가운데는 거래량, 하단은 미결제약정, 연한 파란색은 1일 평균, 주황색은 7일 평균을 나타냅니다. K라인의 색상은 현재 상태를 나타내고, 녹색은 가격 상승이 거래량에 의해 뒷받침됨을 의미하고, 빨간색은 포지션 청산, 노란색은 포지션이 서서히 축적되고 있음, 검은색은 혼잡함을 의미합니다.

역사적 변동성과 내재된 변동성

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when the data was released on June 12; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH has declined.

노란색 선은 과거 변동성, 파란색 선은 내재 변동성, 빨간색 점은 7일 평균입니다.

이벤트 중심

In terms of events, at 20:30 on June 12 (Beijing time), the US CPI was lower than expected. After the data was released, Bitcoin rose from US$68,000 to US$70,000 in a short period of time, an increase of 3%. Subsequently, at 02:00 on June 13 (Beijing time), the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain interest rates at its interest rate meeting. The price of Bitcoin fell from US$70,000 to US$67,000, a decrease of -4.3%.

감정 지표

모멘텀 감정

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, Nasdaq was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.

위 그림은 지난주 다양한 자산의 추세를 보여줍니다.

대출금리_대출심리

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 10.4%, and short-term interest rates rebounded to around 11.2%.

노란색 선은 USD 금리 최고가, 파란색 선은 최고가 75%, 빨간색 선은 최고가 75%의 7일 평균입니다.

표는 과거 보유일별 USD 이자율의 평균 수익률을 보여줍니다.

펀딩비율_계약 레버리지 감정

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 11%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a normal level.

파란색 선은 바이낸스의 BTC 펀딩 비율이고, 빨간색 선은 7일 평균입니다.

표는 과거 보유일별 BTC 수수료의 평균 수익률을 보여줍니다.

시장 상관관계_합의적 감정

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week rose to around 0.9, and the consistency between different varieties was at a high level.

위 그림에서 파란색 선은 비트코인의 가격이고 녹색 선은 [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, 원숭이, apt, arb, ar, astr, 원자, 오디오, avax, axs, bal, 밴드, 박쥐, bch, bigtime, 흐림, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, 사이버, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, 링크, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, 매직, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, Near, neo, Ocean, one, ont , op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, 장미, rune, rvn, 모래, sei, sfp, skl, snx, sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui,ushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t , uma, uni, vet,waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] 전반적인 상관 관계

시장폭_전반적인 심리

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 5.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 7.8% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 7% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 6.3% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that the overall market was in a downward trend with most coins returning to a downtrend.

위 그림은 [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos, etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, 링크, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, 매직, mana, manta, 마스크, matic, meme, mina, mkr, Near, neo, nfp, Ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, 로빈, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui,ushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet,waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30일 비율 각 폭 표시기

요약하다

In the past week, both Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) experienced two price declines, and volatility reached an all-time high when the data was released on June 12. Bitcoin and Ethereums trading volume reached its highest level during the decline on June 7, and then there was a large volume when the data was released on June 12. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has dropped slightly, and the implied volatility has also dropped. In addition, Bitcoins funding rate remains at an average level, and the market breadth indicator shows that most currencies have returned to a downward trend. In terms of events, the prices of mainstream currencies rose after the release of US CPI data, and then fell again after the Feds interest rate meeting.

트위터 : @ https://x.com/CTA_ChannelCmt

웹사이트: 채널cmt.com

This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.07-06.14): CPI is lower than expected, interest rate meeting maintains interest rate

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