シグナルプラスマクロ分析（20240506）：リスク資産は再びゆっくりと上昇し始める可能性がある

For the first time this year, employment data was lower than expected (no surprise increase), with an overall employment change of +175,000 (the previous average increase was around 275,000), and the unemployment rate also unexpectedly rising from 3.83% to 3.87%.

Other higher-frequency job market indicators are also beginning to show signs of a slowdown, such as the recent JOLTS report showing a lower ratio of job openings to the unemployed, and private sector hiring and quits at multi-year lows.

In addition, hiring trends among small businesses weakened significantly, with both the employment components of the ISM and PMI showing weakness, and the share of service and manufacturing firms hiring falling to levels typically seen in recessions.

Last Friday, we pointed out that the non-farm payrolls data was more likely to be dovish, especially considering that the Federal Reserve FOMC made it clear that they were increasing their attention to the weakening of the job market and were willing to ignore the recent inflation situation. Now that the employment data is indeed weak, the return of interest rate cut expectations to the market has triggered another wave of risk rebound.

Yields have seen a bullish steepness, with the 2-year yield falling from 5% to 4.8% and the 10-year yield returning to 4.5%, with the market pricing agあいn predicting nearly 2 rate cuts this year. In the stock market, technology stocks rose 2%, the SPX closed above 5,100 points, and the USD/JPY fell from last weeks high of 159 to 152.5 in 48 hours. All in all, market sentiment was boosted by the dovish interest rate backdrop, ending last week with a strong risk rebound.

This weeks macro data will be relatively light, and the comments of Fed officials may be more important than the data itself. China will release money supply/financing data, while the United States will have Barkin, Williams, Kashkari, Jerrferson, Collins, Cook and Bowman take turns to express policy opinions. After a few weeks of risk cleansing, market positions should be cleaner than in March, and risk sentiment may have found a recent bottom, at least before the data begins to imply more hard landing risks. As investors continue to adjust their portfolios rather than sell stocks directly, the realized volatility of the SPX remains very low. Bloomberg reported that during the current adjustment, the leading stocks of the SPX have changed, although it is more like a rotation in the magnificient 7. Risk assets are expected to have a chance to slowly climb from here.

Cryptocurrency is increasingly correlated with macro sentiment, as sentiment shifted back toward an accommodative Fed/lower forward rates/stronger equities, crypto prices rebounded sharply last Friday, with BTC spot price exceeding $64,000 over the weekend, despite weak spot gold performance. US ETF inflows were strong last Friday, reaching $378 million, and even Grayscale saw $63 million in inflows. In the current macro environment, we maintain our view that risk-reward has become more neutral, and expect short-term price corrections to be more favorable for buying on dips.

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This article is sourced from the internet: SignalPlus Macro Analysis (20240506): Risk assets have a chance to start climbing slowly again

関連：今週、ペペ（PEPE）価格は史上最高値を更新できるか？

簡単に説明すると、ペペ価格は過去最高値 $0.00001000 から下落した後、過去 24 時間で 27% 回復したと述べています。この上昇は、再び利益を期待する過去最高値の15,300社の心に希望と自信を植え付けた。ほぼ$9億相当のPEPEが利益を生もうとしているため、投資家は強気の勢いを維持することになるだろう。ペペ価格は水曜日、チャート上で大幅な上昇を記録した後、投資家の間で強気の感情を再燃させた。これにより、一部の投資家グループの間に、再び利益が得られるという期待が芽生えました。しかし、より広範な市場状況が、ミームコインが史上最高値を更新するまでの障害となっています。投資家の目標$9億ペペの価格は、2月末以来643%の上昇を記録し、価格を史上最高値に達しました…