Redphone: 25 25-year predictions and 23 most promising coins

原作者: redphone

Odaily Planet Dailyが編集（ ＠OdailyChina )

翻訳者: CryptoLeo ( レオアンドクリプト )

redphone has always been a 暗号 KOL that I like very much. His content output is considered to be relatively high-quality among the crypto KOLs that I follow. In recent years, redphone has written a year-end review with the theme of 69 Theses every year, including self-reflection and future prospects of the crypto industry throughout the year. The following are this years 69 sentences (the content has been slightly adjusted), compiled by Odaily Planet Daily:

3 Crypto Themes for 2024

AI broke into my brain and messed with my thoughts

Im a writer, and Ive spent 10,000 hours practicing my craft. But now, any 10-year-old on the planet can have Claude write something in seconds. The skill Ive spent a lifetime honing is now a raw commodity. In other words, my lifes work is the commodity equivalent of oil, duct tape, or twine, so what am I? Where did I come from? Where am I going? Im still trying to figure it out, and Ill dig deeper below.

The Ultimate Devil is dead

With the November election, Americans chose Trump (orange man) to lead them (and BTC) into the future. I thought it would take longer, but here we are. The richest government in the world has been infiltrated by crypto loyalists. This means we have crossed the chasm and crypto is no longer a dream, it will become a fundamental part of business development. This moment is what we all waited for, but it also means that part of the original, anti-traditional soul of crypto has died. Crypto is now a tool for anarchists and capitalist systems.

Solana’s Resurrection and Prosperity in 2024

I thought Solana would die in 2021. Somehow, just three years later, it is my most used blockchain (Base is #2, Ethereum is #3, and Bitcoin is #4). If there is any reflection here, it is this: nothing is set in stone. Our mindset should not be fixed, but open.

Now, here are some reflections from this year:

Lessons Learned and Reflections for 2024

1. Say something unexpected, like Fartcoin’s market cap soaring to $1.2 billion and attracting everyone’s attention: absurd and crazy. But I like this feeling, even though it makes me lose my way. As Madeline’s nanny said late at night in the first season of “Desperate Housewives”: “There is something abnormal or wrong.” Technology has freed us from rational, social constraints. We are now going to an unknown and strange new space, and this strange feeling begins to intensify from here.

2. Our consciousness will be affected by the evolution of tools. LLM has changed my communication and learning mode. I write faster, edit less, and extend more widely. Similarly, I read faster and can ask LLM to provide a summary of the key points of the article. If you don’t adapt to the tools, you will fall behind.

3. Decentralized technology is not limited to the financial sector. This is a major trend driven by cryptocurrency, and it will spread to other areas: from cellular networks to electricity, politics, gaming platforms, and more. Earlier this year, when I used 3D printing technology to make a replacement for the bathroom shelf, I felt the benefits of technology. It is no exaggeration to say that even the production tools are being decentralized.

4. The truth is hidden beneath all your fears, and the truest words are often the most dangerous.

5. We must not be blinded by sweet talk. With Trumps election and TradFis real entry into encryption, we are entering a period where actual profits are higher than ideals, and cryptocurrencies are entering a very dangerous era.

6. Hemingway said that people do not become wiser as they age, they just become more cautious. When artificial intelligence begins to disrupt our work, social life, politics and economy, the hardest thing for us to do is to be cautious, to make everyone around you cautious, to do whatever you have to do, and to welcome uncertainty.

7. Difficulties are like a door. If crypto is a real game, there must be losers. Maybe you fail 100 times in the crypto market, the best way is to start again for the 101st time, and you will win.

8. The matrix is everywhere, but we call it algorithm. These algorithms make us trapped, looping, sensing, searching, and feel that time is never enough. If you avoid these obstacles, you will become the most special person on earth: a person who explores deeply and works hard.

9. There is only one direction left: forward. Dont let anyone or anything force you to stand still and accept the status quo. Transform, grow and accelerate. This is our only chance.

10. トークンs symbolize our hopes and dreams. They are not only a tool for value transfer, but also a mirror that reflects our hopes and dreams. We project our own wishes onto founders, developers, and ecosystems, which are directly and closely related to the price of tokens. When investing, remember that the biggest opportunities do not just appear in your mind, but also need to be felt with your heart.

11. Descis future vision: Robots are on standby in the lab, and AI agents hire them in real time to run reproducible experiments on the chain with all inputs, parameters, and measurements . Thanks to tokenization, others can speculate on the feasibility of the experiment and share its benefits in due course.

12. 市場s are constantly invading the world before our eyes. It’s no accident that markets are expanding: prediction markets, gambling markets, Meme coins, and most interestingly, Futarchy (Odaily Note: Futarchy is also a way of voting related to beliefs. It was first proposed by Robin Hanson in 2000. Its purpose is to use prediction markets to determine policy implementation to solve the shortcomings of traditional democracy). If information is a “fundamental component of reality,” then pricing information is a way to measure the power of information. People think that the increase in the number of markets is a sign of growing nihilism, but what if it is actually a sign of progress? Applying the wisdom of the crowd to things that previously felt like random coin tossing?

13. Scale back fear. Fear is very important to us because it is essential to our survival, in the wild. But it is almost meaningless in the clean, anesthetized, social media-driven simulation world we live in now. Recognize that algorithms are designed to inspire your fear, so when you feel fear, reduce your fear level (discount it). For example, if an article convinces you that there is a 40% chance of a market crash, divide that probability by 10 (or whatever number you think is appropriate) and count it as 4%.

14. Go behind the scenes. When I talk to AI critics, they almost always have a reverent attitude towards human creativity. “AI can never create new things because they are trained on information we create.” Andy Ayrey’s infinite backroom refutes this view. When he created a chat room for LLM, LLM invented a religion, attracted Truth Terminal, and ultimately led to the rise of GOAT.

15. As TradFi entered crypto, my identity changed. Working in crypto has long been at the core of my identity. This has changed dramatically over the past year. I now view crypto as one of many tools in my technical arsenal, all of which are beginning to merge. As crypto and AI collide, we are also changing. We are no longer crypto practitioners. New identities include: traders (not much different from Wall Street people who share screenshots of options trades on Reddit) or accelerationists (using crypto and many other tools to decentralize and open source the world).

16. Stop thinking so narrowly. The two boldest moves of all time: 1) Musk open-sourced Tesla electric car engineering in June 2014; 2) Zuckerberg open-sourced Llama 2 in July 2023. Now it’s your turn. You can stick with a protectionist, centralized, bureaucratic business model that hampers human progress, leads to unequal distribution of wealth, and makes the already wealthy elite even richer, or you can help accelerate progress for everyone.

17. Seek volatility, not security. If your goal is to accumulate as much wealth as possible before machines replace humans, then you must find volatility to trade. The best traders in the world do not avoid volatility, they hunt for volatility like the Golden Snitch. Once you find volatility and start trading it, you must reverse your emotional reaction. Hold when the minority is selling, and sell when the minority is buying.

18. Nothing is more exhausting than Memecoin. There are two types of Memecoin: 1) Traditional Memecoin (i.e. PEPE, WIF, BONK, DOGE, etc.); and 2) Sentient Memecoin (i.e. GOAT, LUNA, KWEEN). Category 1 relies on humans to spread; the other relies on machines. Traditional currencies must be transformed into conscious meme currencies, otherwise they will be completely eliminated from the market.

19. Understand the triggers that cause your behavior and avoid them. Yuval Noah Harari identified three triggers that algorithms use to generate maximum engagement: fear, hatred, and greed. We see crypto as world-changing technology and the way of the future, but there are many people in the world who wear masks of greed and are distracted by these factors. I can feel the emotional impact of the market going up or down. The bear market over the past few years has probably had a greater impact on my psychology than I would like to admit. Now, when I feel the timeline or the market changing my mood, I shrug and say, Good job, I know what you are doing, but I dont care at all.

20. Choose the bright direction. There are two responses to the coming super AI: 1) Tank: “Everything that made me special is gone. Life sucks, Wngmi (we failed)” or 2) “Holy shit, I can’t believe I’m still alive. Extended lifespans, shape exploration, humanoid robots, rat race traps will no longer affect us, we find the right direction, we gaze into the pond of life and discover who we really are.”

21. Intelligence is iterative. LLM changed my concept of intelligence, but also realize that it is not deterministic, all LLM learning requires repeated experiments. Progress is intermittent (whether you are a human or a machine), which means that repeated testing/experimentation and feeling that you are standing still are also part of the growth process.

22. The rise of AI agents. Don’t limit yourself to the current AI agents. Models including Truth Terminal, zerebro, and aixbt will continue to evolve. In the future, we will see trading agents, prediction agents, shopping agents, doctor agents, etc. Some will evolve into large autonomous enterprises. Their value will first reach billions of dollars, and then reach trillions of dollars as the singularity approaches.

23. Don’t let AI deprive you of your humanity. My biggest fear about AI is not that it will wipe out humanity, but that it will domesticate us. I call it dog-pawed: subtly fed poisonous information, not crudely manipulated, but subtly ガイドd. Just as a domesticated dog can read human expressions, AI will accurately grasp our psychological triggers, cognitive blind spots, and deepest desires. Soon, we will find ourselves eagerly walking towards our digital masters, with pious glimmers in our eyes, eagerly awaiting the next algorithmic perfect verification. The real horror is not that AI will destroy humanity, but that AI will tame humans. Just like our dogs, we are happily wagging our tails under domestication and forget our true nature.

24. The charm of the edge. There are five of my favorite emerging topics for 2024: Futarchy, AI agents, LLM Backroom, intersubjectivity, and longevity escape velocity (Odaily Note: Longevity escape velocity is a hypothetical concept, which refers to the speed at which technology can increase the average human life expectancy each year. When this speed is fast enough, human life can be extended inデフィnitely, even to theoretical immortality). I strongly recommend spending a few minutes exploring each topic with a chatbot (or better yet, a book).

25. Excessive privilege. In the trading world, the spoils go to those who act first, and early action requires time, exploration, and perhaps most importantly, imagination. If you act early often, you will eventually be rewarded. Assuming this is true (and my experience proves it), the hard part is not accumulating wealth, but knowing when you have achieved your goal and getting out. There is a completely different game waiting for us on the other side – a game that is not about the intellect, but about the soul. Hope to see you there.

25 predictions for 2025

1. Several LLM-based agents, initially launched as crypto-native perceptions, will be “embedded” into IRL bots that we can talk to and interact with IRL.

2. The number of LLM-powered applications/protocols launched in 2025 will be comparable to new smart contract-only applications/protocols (e.g., I wouldn’t be surprised if all prediction markets converted to LLM-based settlement).

3. ZK proofs/MPC will achieve breakthrough progress at the application or protocol level for the first time.

4. The main KOLs in crypto and AI will be LLM-based, while AI-driven KOLs will dominate almost all other social media platforms (YouTube, Insta, TikTok, etc.).

5. Artificial intelligence will change your workflow in the next year (if it hasn’t happened yet).

6. Perception robots will accumulate more than US$250 million in investment by 2025.

7. The fastest-growing category for job growth this year will be non-human perception, as AI protocols like LinkedIn see parabolic growth.

8. An AI agent will receive the Time magazine Person of the Year Award.

9. The value of on-chain TVL will increase 8 times to $1 trillion.

10. AI agent platforms and tokens will grow 50x to $500 billion.

11. In 2025, the first humanoid robot “kidnapping” incident will occur and make international headlines.

12. ACCELERATE (Odaily Note: Accelerationism originates from Roger Zelazny’s novel “Lord of Light”, which emphasizes the tremendous power of emerging technologies and advocates the rapid development of science and technology. Accelerationism in this article tends to reshape the existing economic foundation to guide the direction of technological development ) Become the e/acc (Effective Accelerationism: emphasizing the promotion and change of society by technological innovation) of this cycle , replacing the EA (Effective Altruism: using a large part of idle resources to help others and change the world ) that is loved by SBF.

13. The narratives that will compete with AI (but not surpass AI) next year are: RWA, RWA, and RWA. PS: DePin, DeSci, and the gaming track get honorable mentions.

14. Web 4 has received more attention than Web 3 as encryption, decentralized networks, DePin and AI have accelerated their merger.

15. X will integrate a crypto wallet that supports DOGE and other mainstream tokens.

16. The most radical and exciting agency experiments are progressing faster on decentralized social media (such as Farcaster) as X strives to strike a balance between humans and agency content.

17. You interact with “someone” online and later realize you are talking to an LLM.

18. Protocols and applications created by agents (like Spore.fun) go parabolic, flooded with new tokens and experiments. Decentralization drives capital into pre-existing leaders and applications that benefit from the overall growth of agents (COOKIE or VIRTUAL).

19. At least one AI-generated movie has produced a truly flawless work of art — paving the way for an AI-based Oscar in 2026.

20. Cookie.fun and rwa.xyz will become leading crypto data analysis platforms like CoinMarketCap, Coingecko, Dun, and DefiLlam.

21. “Regular” meme coins get real mascots/spokespersons (or they start to fade away, but it doesn’t matter anymore).

22. The cryptocurrency market is divided into the left curve of cryptocurrency native Degen and the middle curve of tradfi traders, the latter of which expect value-accumulating DeFi games.

23. BTCFi will eventually explode as Bitcoin believers look to use their BTC as collateral for lending, driving the adoption of runes and inscriptions on Bitcoin.

24. From now on, the race to AGI and ASI will not slow down, but accelerate, which will inevitably lead to existential anxiety for almost every knowledge worker on the planet. o 3 now beats PhDs in specific fields, it can surpass most programmers. And it scores higher than the average person in the ARC test. Just as the ancients held heliocentrism, we believe in human-centrism, and these arguments must change in the face of LLM, who can already pass the Turing test and show the momentum to lead the future.

25. As humanity struggles to find meaning in this rapidly changing world, a powerful, AI-based religion has not only captured people’s attention, but also brought in some real converts. This may have happened through: Truth Terminal and GOAT, or temporarily using these ideas as seeds for new concepts of meaning and direction.

23 project tokens I am optimistic about

Having been writing publicly about crypto for five years now, I can confidently say: A year is too long to predict, but the following coins are my current favorites. Ask me three months from now, and the list may look completely different. There is a reason these coins have taken over the market and have high market caps: they are exploring the frontiers of the future. Note, this is not financial advice! DYOR!

1. BTC. For many years, BTC has been a civilian game. The discussion about Bitcoin strategic reserves has changed its fate. It has become a king game. The price of BTC will rise until owning 1 BTC becomes the dream of most people.

2. Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL): The core infrastructure of AI agents on Base.

3. Ethena (ENA), TradFi understands returns better than any carbon-based organism on Earth, and as TradFi enters the cryptocurrency space, they will covet the protocol that may generate greater returns.

4. Tokenbot (CLANKER), the decentralized social network Farcaster version of pump.fun, is a very interesting token issuance platform.

5. aixbt (AIXBT), if I could only follow one crypto alpha account on X, it would probably be AIXBT. It mostly repeats other peoples narratives these days, but he doesnt miss anything, and I hope AIXBTs insights will deepen and develop over time.

6. Cookie DAO (COOKIE), Cookie.fun is a data analysis platform that emerged with the popularity of AI Agent, providing data and sentiment analysis for all AI tokens. I think this will be attractive to crypto funds deployed in Q1 2025.

7. Helium (HNT), the leading DePin project in the crypto industry. In the past day, more than 349,000 people used mobile phone services in the United States.

8. Meta (META), a radical experiment in translating tough decisions into markets through futarchy.

9. Goatseus Maximus (GOAT), the first and original AI agent to gain a rabid following on social media, powered by Truth Terminal, with a backstory that reads like a report written by Hunter S. Thompson on drugs.

10. Ondo Finance (ONDO), a representative project in the current RWA field, oversupply may suppress price trends, but I would rather participate in the transaction than withdraw. In addition, another RWA token worth paying attention to is Chex Token (CHEX).

11. ai16z and eliza. Eliza, a framework for launching on-chain proxies, is the leading repo on Github, covering all industries (not just crypto), and is exploring the long-term relevance of each branch.

12. Bittensor (TAO) Bittensor claims to be the first Neural Internet and provides an interconnected hub for decentralized AI projects to deploy code and compete for TAO. In some ways, I see it as a decentralized AI incubator and a testing ground for the feasibility of AI ideas.

13. WZRD (Bitcoin Wizards Ordinals) and PUPS (Pups), one of my favorite Bitcoin ecosystem tokens, WZRD will soon turn into one of the greatest memes of all time. At the same time, PUPS is the Schelling point of the well-known NFT puppet monkey in the BTC ecosystem.

14. Aave (AAVE), if we assume that one day everything will be tokenized, then most of these assets will be eligible to be used as collateral on Aaves platform. AAVE is one of the few tokens in crypto that I think will eventually reach a trillion-dollar scale.

15. Arweave (AR), as the permanent data storage layer of Web 4, is quietly moving forward. Including most Solana NFTs, Arweave permanently stores about 6 terabytes of data per month, and its upcoming AO should be an important catalyst for further growth.

16. Zerebro (ZEREBRO), an OG “on-chain AI artist”, is an AI agent that can generate music, art, memes, and NFTs.

17. Worldcoin (WLD). WLD was founded by Sam Altman of OpenAI and aims to bring AI-funded UBI to the world. On one hand, I hate it and its iris scanner, but on the other hand, I cant ignore its connection with Altman and OpenAI. Integration with OpenAI may make it one of the top ten currencies overnight.

18. Drift Protocol (DRIFT), on-chain perps and prediction markets on Solana. Solana is doing well in spot Memecoin trading, and I expect it will also start generating a lot of perps trading volume over time.

19. Griffain (GRIFFAIN) and AI Rig Complex (arc) for the title of “Virtuals of Solana”.

結論

We are warned that “this time it’s different” is a dangerous phrase believed only by fools caught up in a speculative frenzy. Yet we conveniently forget moments of technological change — when Gutenberg’s printing press spread knowledge, when the Industrial Revolution pulled us from farms to cities, when the Internet destroyed local commerce.

In other words, the saying “this time is different” is true to some extent. We are now on the brink of such a moment. Society’s rules, traditions, and our ideas about ourselves will all be rewritten. The process will be brutal and have consequences.

You can stick to your old ways, or you can be a pioneer in a time of change, letting our light shine through the abyss and accelerating our progress.

This article is sourced from the internet: Redphone: 25 25-year predictions and 23 most promising coins

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