Matrixport Market Observation: BTC is under pressure and consolidating in the short term, can altcoin bull market come?

In the past week, $457 million of Bitcoin outflows occurred, the first large-scale outflow since early September. The continued selling pressure affects the upward trend of BTC, and BTC has entered a short-term pressure consolidation phase. Last week, the price of BTC reached a minimum of $90,792 and a maximum of $97,208, with a maximum intra-week fluctuation of 7.43%. Currently, the price of BTC fluctuates around $95,000. The overall price trend of ETH is consistent with the price of BTC. After breaking through the resistance level of $3,500 on the 27th, it fluctuated and rose to a maximum of $3,760. It fell slightly yesterday and is currently stable at around $3,600 (the above data is from Binance spot, December 3, 18:00).

Last week, U.S. stocks posted their most significant gains in recent memory. In the shortened トレーディング session on November 29, the SP 500 surged 5.73%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7.54%, and the Nasdaq rose 6.21%. Both the SP 500 and the Nasdaq set new all-time highs, marking a perfect end to November. December 2 had a relatively quiet start, with the Nasdaq, SP 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average all falling slightly.

Under this premise, the current SEC Chairman Gensler has also officially resigned, and Donald Trump鈥檚 nomination for SEC Chairman may be announced tomorrow. The 暗号-friendly former U.S. Securities and 交換 Commission Commissioner Paul Atkins is the top candidate.

Affected by the US governments BTC transfer, altcoin activities and geopolitical influence on prices, although the speed of BTC reaching the $100,000 target is slowing down, the increase in holdings by whales and the expectation of loose policies are still stimulating a sharp rise in prices in the crypto market in the short term. In the market where meme coins are in high spirits, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management while capturing market opportunities.

市場 Hotspots

XRP鈥檚 capital inflow reached $95,000, an increase of about 69%, due to the launch of the US ETF

XRP鈥檚 inflow reached $95 million, the largest ever, which may be due to the hype surrounding the possible launch of an ETF in the U.S. According to data from on-chain analysis company Santiment, XRP whales have been busy buying recently, accumulating a large amount of XRP, and XRP prices have recently shown a significant bullish trend.

Currently, the total number of XRP holders has increased by 119,820, the price has increased by about 69%, and the number of XRP non-empty addresses has also exceeded the 5.5 million mark for the first time in XRP history. In addition to the increase in holdings by whales, many large capital investors and retail investors have also poured in due to the optimism of the upcoming cryptocurrency legislation by the US government. Currently, XRP is $2.67 (real-time data at 17:00 on December 3), which exceeds the normal resistance level and reaches an extreme risk level.

Solana and XRP are currently competing to become the next cryptocurrency to receive ETF approval, and with the change of SEC chairman and Trump鈥檚 crypto-friendly policies, the path to launching a cryptocurrency ETF may become easier.

MicroStrategy buys another 15,400 BTC worth about $1.5 billion

MicroStrategy, the listed company with the largest BTC holdings in the world, purchased an additional 15,400 BTC (valued at $1.5 billion) between November 25 and December 1. This is the fourth consecutive week that the company has purchased BTC, and its total BTC holdings currently reach 402,100 BTC.

Previously, the company had sold more than 3.7 million shares of MicroStrategy and plans to continue its stock sales strategy. As of December 1, MicroStrategy still had approximately $11.3 billion worth of shares available for sale. Over the next three years, the company plans to raise a total of $42 billion through the sale of stocks and fixed-income securities. A large part of this money will be used to further acquire Bitcoin.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has increased significantly

According to CMEs Fed Watch, the probability that the Fed will maintain the current interest rate unchanged by December is 25.5%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 74.5%. The probability of maintaining the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 20.6%, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 65.1%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 50 basis points is 14.3%.

New York Federal Reserve President Williams publicly stated at a meeting of the Queens Chamber of Commerce in New York on December 2 that as inflationary pressures continue to cool, the Federal Reserve may further lower its interest rate target to support a sustainable return of inflation to the 2% target.

The US government marked the address to transfer about 19,800 BTC

According to Arkham data, 19,800 BTC transferred from the US government鈥檚 marked address flowed into the new wallet, of which 10,000 BTC (about $968 million) were transferred to Coinbase. The US government currently holds 188,309 BTC, worth about $18.24 billion.

This move attracted a lot of market attention, and the price of Bitcoin once fell nearly 3% to $94,500, but the market quickly recovered. According to on-chain data, these more than 10,000 BTC did not actually flow into the market, and it is not clear whether this is a real sale or a strategy adjustment.

Investment advice

According to recent market performance and data, the current crypto market as a whole is showing a high volatility. Driven by the Feds expectations of rate cuts and the optimism of US cryptocurrency legislation, altcoins such as XRP have seen large inflows and gains, but there are certain short-term risks. Under the influence of an uncertain regulatory environment and market FOMO sentiment, investors need to be cautious of sharp market fluctuations in the short term, pay close attention to changes in market sentiment, and adopt reasonable risk management strategies. Adjust the investment portfolio in a timely manner and avoid excessive risk exposure.

As the worlds leading one-stop crypto financial service platform, Matrixport provides users with diversified asset management products, including structured products such as dual-currency investment, Snowball, Shark Fin, Trend Profit, Seagull, and installment purchase; quantitative strategy, passive strategy and other strategic investments. The above products support multi-currency investment and a wide range of investment cycles.

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