ビットコインが$80,000を突破。新高値の原動力は何でしょうか?

GSR Research Analyst Toe Bautista said after Trump won the US election that from the perspective of altcoins, many project owners have been waiting for the opportunity to see what happens with other token issuances and the election results. He also believes that if macro conditions remain favorable, Bitcoin prices may rise further. It is easy to foresee Bitcoin going to $80,000, whether it is the first quarter of next year or the end of the month.

After Trump was elected as the President of the United States, everyone expected BTC to break through $80,000 soon, but no one expected that $80,000 would come so quickly.

Micro Strategy Positions

Micro Strategy is a company that holds a large amount of BTC. Currently, MicroStrategy holds a total of 252,220 ビットコインs, with a total purchase cost of approximately US$9.9 billion and an average purchase price of approximately US$39,266. The current total value of Bitcoin holdings is US$20.177 billion.

ETF Inflows

The ETF attracted much attention when it was first launched, mainly because of the influx of a large amount of new funds, and the price of Bitcoin also set a new record. However, the total funds of the ETF soon began to flow out, and the market sentiment began to decline. But recently, the BTC ETF has continued to see a large amount of capital inflow.

Not only did it set a new record for net daily capital inflow, it also set a new record for holdings. The logic is also very clear. After Trump takes office, there is a high probability that 暗号currency gold will appear, and the power of American political forces to support cryptocurrencies will become stronger and stronger. For the big players in traditional finance, their possibility of allocating funds to cryptocurrencies will increase, and BTC ETF has become the most convenient channel for investing in cryptocurrencies. For other US stock investors, BTC ETF will also become very attractive under Trumps platform.

Rate cuts

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September, which was much higher than expected, and Bitcoin also rose sharply at the time. A 25 basis point interest rate cut was also confirmed in the November interest rate meeting, which was generally understood by the market as a positive factor. After all, the starting point of the last bull market was the interest rate cut in March 2020.

November historical data

In addition to the data, there is also a sense of ceremony.

According to Coinglass data, after Bitcoins halving in 2012, 2016, and 2020, the investment returns in the fourth quarter all performed well, at 97.7%, 58.17%, and 168.02%, respectively. The returns in November 2016 were 5.42%, and the returns in November 2020 were 42.95%. The returns this month are still worth looking forward to.

It is worth noting that Bitcoin closed up 7.35% in September this year, setting a record for its best performance in history. Historically, every time Bitcoin closed up in September, it would rise until the end of the year.

After dawn, history will come.

What do traders think about the future trend of Bitcoin?

PlanB: BTCは25年末までに$1百万に達すると予想されている

PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and is well-known in the crypto industry for his unique model of the relationship between asset scarcity and price. His analysis looks at the growth potential of Bitcoins long-term value, especially price fluctuations after the halving event. His latest forecast points out that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may usher in an unprecedented price surge. PlanB constructs a series of monthly timelines to show the direction of Bitcoins price development under different market scenarios.

数か月前の予測では、PlanB は独自のモデル S 2 F に基づいて具体的な値を示しました。

November: Trump wins the election, Bitcoin price reaches $100,000. Trump wins the election, and PlanB believes that Bitcoin will usher in a major turning point. He pointed out that Trumps coming to power may bring friendly policies to cryptocurrencies, thus ending the current Biden/Harris administrations war on cryptocurrencies, especially the policy checks and balances on senior regulators such as Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren, which will cause the price of Bitcoin to climb directly to $100,000.

December: ETF funds poured in, and Bitcoin soared to $150,000. PlanB believes that Trumps victory will clear the way for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and a large amount of funds are expected to flow into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents the acceptance and recognition of the mainstream financial market and the trust of investors, which will further push the price of Bitcoin to $150,000.

January 2025: Crypto returns to the US, Bitcoin climbs to $200,000. With the Trump administrations openness to cryptocurrency policies, a large number of crypto companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the US. PlanB expects this to have a significant market demand effect, pushing the price of Bitcoin to $200,000.

February 2025: The Power Law team takes profits and the price falls back to $150,000. The February pullback is a prediction of a Bitcoin market adjustment. PlanB believes that investors profit-taking will cause Bitcoin to briefly fall back to $150,000 after hitting a high. However, this adjustment will be short-lived and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of the rise.

March to May 2025: Bitcoin globalization trend, price breaks through $500,000. Starting in March, PlanB expects Bhutan, Argentina, Dubai and other countries to gradually use Bitcoin as legal tender, and starting in April, the United States will also start a strategic reserve of Bitcoin under the promotion of Trump. Then, in May, he believes that other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this trend, causing Bitcoin to further climb to $500,000.

June 2025: AI boosts the price to $600,000. In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that AI will begin to autonomously participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage. He predicts that with the participation of AI in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive the price up, causing Bitcoin to exceed $600,000.

July to December 2025: FOMO fades, price reaches $1 million. In the following months, PlanB believes that the markets FOMO sentiment begins to fade, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this point, Bitcoin has not only become a mainstream asset reserve, but also a must-have for global investors.

2026-2027: 市場 adjustment and bear market. In 2026, PlanB expects the price of Bitcoin to fall from $1 million to $500,000 and enter the distribution stage. By 2027, the market will enter a bear market and the price of Bitcoin is expected to drop to $200,000.

PlanBは、この予測の鍵はビットコインの希少価値にあると結論付けた。同氏は、希少性が不動産や金などの希少資産と同様に資産価格を左右する中核的な要因になると指摘した。PlanBは、今後18か月でビットコインの価格は半減期効果と市場の需要により急騰し、世界中の投資家の間でデジタルゴールドとしての地位を強化し続けると予想している。

PlanBの予測の鍵はビットコインの希少価値です。彼は投資家が希少性を好むと指摘し、現在、希少性の選択肢は基本的に不動産（S2F100、時価総額$10兆）、金（S2F60、時価総額$20兆）、ビットコイン（S2F120、時価総額$1兆）の3つです。したがって、ビットコインの希少性は、不動産や金などの希少資産と同様に、資産価格を動かす中核的な要因になるでしょう。

PlanB proposed the opposite scenario, that if Harris wins, he believes it will represent the end of Western civilization and continue to exacerbate the decline of the American empire. He expects the crypto industry to be further oppressed under the supervision of Gensler and Warren, continue more choke point actions, and may even face more stringent tax policies, such as the introduction of unrealized capital gains tax. However, he also emphasized that Bitcoin does not rely on a specific regulatory environment, and its value drive will still come from the global demand for scarcity.

Alex Kr眉ger: BTC spot will be the main currency on election night

Alex Kr眉ger, an Argentine economist, trader and consultant, believes that the election results will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin prices:

Trump wins: Bitcoins target price is $90,000 by the end of the year. Kr眉ger believes that after Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin will quickly rush to $90,000 by the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that the price of Bitcoin will soar rapidly because the market has partially anticipated the positive impact of Trumps victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there is still a certain degree of price underestimation, and the markets rapid reaction will be reflected soon after the news is confirmed.

ギバー：中間選挙は選挙後に行われる

The Giver is an anonymous senior investor with extensive experience in buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He currently works in special situation private equity, providing a different perspective. The Givers strategy is more conservative and short-term-focused than Kr眉ger and PlanB. He believes that the election-driven rise in Bitcoin is more of a temporary phenomenon than a long-term trend. This view places special emphasis on the driving effects of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that Bitcoin may see a downward adjustment after the election. His specific analysis is:

今回のビットコイン上昇の原動力は、全体的なトレンドによるものではなく、イベント主導の非粘着性買い手、つまり選挙リスクをヘッジしようとする一部の短期投機家によるものだ。こうした買い手はビットコインを長期間保有することはなく、選挙騒ぎが収まるとすぐに市場から撤退する可能性がある。そのため、こうした資金は粘着性に欠け、選挙後にビットコイン価格は売り圧力に直面する可能性がある。

アルトコインのパフォーマンスの低迷とビットコインへの集中。彼の意見では、資金の流入は主にビットコインに集中しており、アルトコインには広く流入していないため、アルトコインのパフォーマンスが低迷している。これは、現在の資本の流れが、暗号通貨市場全体の利益というよりも、ヘッジツールとしてのビットコインに基づいていることを示しています。

The Giver expects that Bitcoins open interest and positions will continue to be crowded in the coming week, and even reach new highs. He pointed out that this right-side effect may bring a short-term surge in Bitcoin prices, but it is unlikely to last into the next year due to the limited market capacity in the fourth quarter of 2024. This short-term effect makes it more likely that Bitcoin prices will peak before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is not enough to support a long-term rally.

Based on this judgment, The Giver gave a relatively aggressive investment strategy: Based on the current market environment, he suggested going long on Bitcoin and shorting other mainstream coins and altcoins. Bitcoin will test $70,000 before Election Day, but after the results are announced, no matter who wins, there will eventually be a mid-term decline. More related reading: From the Trump effect, Microstrategy premium to the liquidity cycle, analyzing the BTC price performance in 2024

マーカス: BTC ロングと SOL ショートのヘッジ戦略

Markus Thielen 氏は、Matrixport および 10X Research の著名なアナリストです。数か月前に彼がビットコインの市場価値を $1 兆と予測したことは極めて正確で、投資コミュニティに急速に広まり、彼を有名にしました。

マークスの最新の分析は、10Xリサーチの最新シグナルモデルに基づいており、そのヒット率は73%から87%で、通常2週間から9か月以内に達成されます。彼は、ビットコインの価格が歴史的傾向に沿って発展し続ければ、今後2週間で8%、1か月で13%、2か月で26%、3か月で40%上昇する可能性があると予測しています。この計算に基づくと、ビットコインの価格は2025年1月27日までに$100,000を超え、2025年4月29日に約$140,000の目標に達する可能性があります。

Regarding the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election results on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Markus predicted that after Trump takes office, Bitcoin may rise by 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also gain similar gains. He believes that Trumps victory will bring a more cryptocurrency-friendly policy environment, which is expected to drive the market up.

In this scenario, Markus recommends a strategy of going long on Bitcoin and short on Solana to hedge against the uncertainty caused by the election. However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or disputed, this will increase market uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.

In the event that the election results are controversial or Harris victory causes a short-term decline in Bitcoin, Markus emphasized that Bitcoin may still show strong resistance to declines, and therefore recommends that investors seize the buying window after a short-term decline in Bitcoin.

From the derivatives market and on-chain data, the total amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders increased in October, while the Bitcoin holdings of long-term holders decreased. This dynamic usually occurs when the price is about to break through an important threshold. The total amount of open contracts in the Bitcoin options market has soared to $22.5 billion in 2024, showing the markets high sentiment for the Bitcoin bull market. Bitcoins 25 Delta skewness is at the lower end of the annual range (-8% to -10%), which indicates strong bullish sentiment.

Thielen also paid special attention to the impact of MicroStrategys stock performance on Bitcoin prices. He pointed out that MicroStrategys stock price has risen 33% since October, and its stock surge has had a dog tail effect on Bitcoin prices. The covering of a large number of short positions has also further boosted the markets bullish sentiment on Bitcoin.

スタンダード・チャータードのアナリスト：トランプ氏が勝利すれば、BTCは年末までに$125,000に上昇する

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick has predicted that if Trump wins the November election, the price of Bitcoin could climb to $125,000 by the end of the year, Cointelegraph reported on Oct. 25.

Kendrick鈥檚 model shows that Bitcoin could stabilize around $73,000 on Election Day (November 5). In the event of a Trump victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to rise by about 4% immediately and another 10% in the following days, with rising market confidence and a looser regulatory environment becoming the main drivers.

Meanwhile, a research report from another brokerage, Bernstein, pointed out that if Trump wins the US election in November, Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high later this year, and the price of Bitcoin may reach $90,000 by the fourth quarter. In contrast, if Harris wins, the market may expect increased regulation, and the price of BTC may fall back to the range of $30,000 to $40,000.

What we can predict in the future is that BTC has broken through the ATH, and there is no so-called pressure level in the future price increase. BTC has not let down any spot holder.

However, there are still about two months before Trump officially takes office. Will a new narrative emerge during this narrative void to lead the market to continue to rise? Will Trump fulfill his previous promises after taking office? Let us wait and see.

This article is sourced from the internet: Bitcoin breaks through $80,000. What are the driving forces behind the new high?

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