What inspiration does Polymarket’s popularity provide to the Ethereum ecosystem?

原作者: Haotian (X: @tme l0 211 )

I see a lot of people discussing whether @Polymarket belongs to the Ethereum ecosystem. In fact, this is not important at all. Many people are just upset that the super application that became so popular during the Trump election failed to stimulate and catalyze Ethereum. We are looking forward to a phenomenal application that can revitalize the entire Ethereum ecosystem! Next, let me talk about my opinion:

1) @VitalikButerin has praised Polymarket many times. As someone who is anxious about the over-financialization of DeFi, it is hard for him not to like Polymarket , an application that connects on-chain capital investment with real-world prediction scenarios .

Although Polymarket is also a super casino to be precise, it essentially undertakes the prediction needs in the real world, such as sports, politics, entertainment, policy, science, etc. Polymarket does not provide such gambling scenarios. These huge demands can also be met offline through entertainment methods such as betting, gambling, futures, and guessing games.

Polymarket integrates these scattered forecasting needs and connects them to Crypto assets, using the fairness, transparency, and verifiability of blockchain technology to build a new platform for these needs. Doesnt this fit in with the vision of blockchain technology to empower the real world?

This is fundamentally different from the profit models that have been popular in DeFi for some time, such as mining, coin issuance, machine gun pool, arbitrage, Staking, Restaking, and governance.

Although both have a gambling element, Polymarket provides a wider range of consumption scenarios, a larger user base, and stronger resource sources and sustainability.

Vitalik hopes that DeFi in the Ethereum ecosystem can break the pure on-chain PVP cycle like Polymarket and connect real-world funds and users.

2) As for whether Polymarket belongs to the Ethereum ecosystem, I don鈥檛 want to make a conclusion. From the perspective of technical neutrality, Polymarket is built on the Polygon chain, consumes Matic ($POL) gas, and does not even use Polygon zkEVM, which is regarded as Ethereum layer 2. Calling it a super application of the Ethereum ecosystem is somewhat irrelevant. In the context of the overall poor application of the Ethereum ecosystem, such matchmaking is too far-fetched and flattering.

However, Polymarket was launched as early as 2020, when mainstream L2 solutions such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and Starknet were still in their infancy, and Ethereum DeFi, NFT, etc. were popular one after another. Ethereum Gas fees have been in a state of congestion. If Polymarket really chose Ethereum, it might be like Augur, and it would have been tepid. Facts have proved that Ethereums basic infra could not support super applications like Polymarket under the background at that time.

3) In my opinion, the popularity of Polymarket at least provides some inspiration to the Ethereum ecosystem:

1. Low gas fees are very important. The general direction of Ethereums layer 2 strategy is correct. It only lacks applications like Polymarket to be born on layer 2.

2. It is important to connect with the needs of the real world. The DeFi model on the pure Crypto chain has gone through a cycle. It has been proven that it is difficult to create a super application that breaks the circle. How Ethereum can break through the pure chain dilemma and access the larger and broader needs and scenarios off the chain is a difficult problem that must be overcome. DeFi is also a success, but it cannot be limited to DeFi;

3. It is also important that トークンomics can stimulate the price of coins. It seems that the breakthrough of Polymarket did not bring much benefit to Polygon, which is obvious from the price of $POL. Although it is cruel, it is indeed true. If the model design of super applications does not put enough effort into the design of Tokenomics, even if such applications are run on Ethereum layer 2, I am afraid it will have no direct relationship with the price of Ethereum.

4) Many people complain that Ethereum鈥檚 infra > applications is a problem, but in fact, Ethereum鈥檚 infra is not a problem of too much, but a problem of not being able to achieve qualitative change from quantitative change. When there is an infra that can be compatible with more applications in traditional Internet business scenarios, when TPS, parallelism, ultra-large-scale processing, low Gas, etc. become common capabilities of infra, then infra will truly mature and pave the way for the birth of potential super applications.

It is not a problem of lack of applications. It can only be said that applications like x to Earn are also short-term experimental applications built based on the current limitations of infra. Such applications are destined to have a short life cycle. In fact, there has never been a shortage of such applications. To attract the birth of larger-scale and more realistic super applications, infra such as modularization and chain abstraction may have to continue to be built and rolled out. This may be a bit counterintuitive, but it is the fact.

Fortunately, the success of Polymarket has set a successful example for the Crypto ecosystem market. Its success in application has not been reflected in the price of the currency, but it has also taught the Crypto world a good lesson. In addition, Trumps election has given the Crypto market a huge gain buff. In this context, we should remain optimistic, give the market more time to incubate and cultivate, and believe that everything will be fine.

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