Bitcoin Market Report: Key Trends, Insights and Bullish Price Predictions

オリジナル記事: Bitcoin Magazine Pro

原文翻訳: Felix、PANews

Bitcoin Magazine Pro published an article reviewing Bitcoin in October and discussing some key topics, including the decline in Bitcoin exchange balances, ETF fund inflows exceeding $5 billion, and optimistic predictions that Bitcoins value may be reデフィned in the coming quarter. The following are the details of the report.

Key Highlights:

• Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: Bitcoin exchange balances are at historic lows, indicating that holders are increasingly confident and are increasingly choosing self-custody.

• Bitcoin ETF surges: ETF inflows exceeded $5.4 billion in October, with BlackRocks IBIT leading the market. This reflects the growing acceptance of Bitcoin in mainstream financial markets.

• Mining dynamics: Russia and China are expanding their mining influence, while the United States still maintains the largest share of computing power.

• Bullish Price Prediction: Bitcoin analyst Tone Vays predicts a potential price range of $102,000 to $140,000 for Bitcoin by mid-2025, backed by strong technical indicators.

Bitcoin on-chain

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• BTC exchange balances hit record low, indicating rising preference for self-custody

• Addresses with balances of over 100 tokens reached a record high, reflecting the expansion of adoption

• Strong on-chain fundamentals suggest that price momentum will continue into 2025.

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Declining Bitcoin exchange balances and growing wallet adoption bode well for the potential for higher prices, and investors should monitor exchange inflows and growth in high-balance wallets as indicators of demand and potential price strength in Q4 and beyond.

Insights

The total balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has decreased significantly in October and is currently just below 3 million, as shown in Figure 1. This decline suggests that investors are increasingly choosing self-custody rather than leaving funds on exchanges, a trend generally associated with long-term holding strategies. When exchange balances decrease and prices rise, it indicates confidence in the medium- to long-term trend of Bitcoin. This shift toward self-custody could become a supply-side constraint, which could put upward pressure on prices if demand continues.

Mining

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• Russia and China currently contribute significantly to the global Bitcoin computing power.

• The United States still leads in hashrate, but Russia holds second place, while China is quietly increasing activity despite a mining ban.

• Emerging markets such as Ethiopia and Argentina are also seeing growth, which could affect the distribution of computing power.

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If China and Russia’s hash rate continue to grow, U.S. miners could face new global competition next year.

Insights

Russia and China are emerging as key forces in the global Bitcoin mining sector. Russia is now the second-largest contributor to global hashrate. It exploits its abundant natural resources, giving miners access to cost-effective energy. This expansion is driven by the region’s support for mining as a profitable and strategic economic activity. Meanwhile, underground mining continues despite an official ban in China, which has seen increasing activity in recent years. This dual development hints at a shift in mining power that could affect market dynamics, especially as global hashrate distribution is no longer dominated by the United States.

While the United States still leads in Bitcoin computing power, Russias rapid rise and Chinas resilience pose challenges to American miners, and emerging markets such as Ethiopia and Argentina are also increasing mining activities, creating a more decentralized global mining network. This diversification may enhance the security and operational stability of the Bitcoin network, making it less vulnerable to regional disruptions. As these trends continue, Bitcoin miners in the United States may face more intense competition, both in terms of access to energy resources and in maintaining profitability in volatile market conditions.

ETFs

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• BlackRock’s BTC ETF (lBlT) saw its largest daily inflow of $872 million, with a net トレーディング volume of $4.6 billion for the month.

• Fidelity saw the largest single-day inflow of $239 million, but its net trading volume was only $496.8 million, dwarfing lBIT.

• Bitwise (BITB) had the largest daily inflow of $100.2 million, and its net trading volume for the month reached $137.3 million.

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Expect volatility in the BTC ETF in the short term. While IBIT remains the volume and liquidity leader, it may not offer the best trading volatility. FBTC and ARKB have seen significant fluctuations in relative size, providing the best opportunities for trading.

Insights

Bitcoin ETFs saw record net inflows of approximately $5.415 billion in October (Figure 1). The popularity and demand for these products has prompted the U.S. SEC to further approve options trading on many BTC ETF products. Increased speculation, leverage, margin calls, market maker delta hedging, and sentiment effects could impact BTC ETFs, which would have a carryover effect on the direct Bitcoin spot market itself.

BlackRock’s lBlT is far ahead, with $4.6 billion in monthly volume and the most active trading. For traders looking to act on market dynamics, this also means that for every trade that is made on an lBlT, there is someone willing to take it. Other ETF options, such as Fidelity’s FBTC, Ark 21 Shares’ ARKB, and Bitwises BlTB, can provide better entry opportunities as the volume of each option is reduced (Figure 2). While ETFs strive to track the BTC market price perfectly, lower liquidity and trading volume can create opportunities to enter favorable positions during these imbalances.

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• MicroStrategy (MSTR) has announced a three-year, $42 billion Bitcoin investment plan aimed at putting more BTC on its balance sheet.

• Despite Bitcoin’s 63.9% year-to-date gain, six of the top ten Bitcoin-related stocks have underperformed (negative returns).

• Metaplanet INC (TYO: 3350) is up 838.82% year to date, largely due to the announcement of a Bitcoin balance sheet strategy.

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Bitcoin-related stocks could rally in the coming months, driven by positive sentiment around Bitcoin at the start of Q4. Opportunities could exist for stocks like Semler Scientific (SMLR), which is quietly adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet, providing a positive upside to the stock’s value.

Insights

While it would seem intuitive that Bitcoin-related stocks would follow BTCs bullish trend, most have not benefited from Bitcoins 63.9% year-to-date (YTD) gain (Figure 1). Marathon Digital (MARA) Riot Platforms (RlOT) and CleanSpark (CLSK) are down -31.42%, -38.98% and -6.39% year-to-date, respectively, indicating operational difficulties or sensitivity to 暗号 mining costs, Tesla (TSLA) is up just 0.2% since the beginning of 2024, and Block inc. (SO) is down 6.72%. While Coinbase (COlN) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY or BRPHE) have performed positively, their performance has not outperformed the spot Bitcoin price trend.

In contrast, MicroStrategy (MSTR) surged 263.68%, reflecting the impact of its leveraged Bitcoin holdings and investor confidence in its Bitcoin-focused strategy. MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced a three-year, $42 billion Bitcoin investment plan, continuing the companys buy and hold strategy (Figure 2). In Japan, Metaplanet Inc. (TYo: 3350) has increased 838, 82% year-to-date since announcing its Bitcoin reserve strategy earlier this year. With Bitcoin on the cusp of its next bull run, companies should consider adopting a Bitcoin holding strategy.

デリバティブ

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• Bitcoin recently broke through $70,000, with short positions liquidated exceeding $100 million.

• Funding rates remain relatively neutral, likely due to uncertainty surrounding the US election.

• Funding rates are very low at this stage of the market cycle. This is bullish as it will allow BTC prices to rise further without accumulating excessive leverage in the derivatives market.

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Once the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election and the subsequent market volatility passes, Bitcoin is expected to rise by the end of the year.

Insights

BTC has been trending upwards over the past month. While there have been downside corrections along the way, most of the liquidations have been for traders who attempted to short BTC.

The US election has brought short-term uncertainty to the Bitcoin derivatives market. Expect significant market volatility in the coming weeks.

However, once the impulsive reaction in either direction subsides, expect the derivatives market to stabilize again. Currently, funding rates remain very low at this stage in the Bitcoin market cycle. This is bullish and should allow Bitcoin prices to move significantly higher in the coming months until we see funding rates of +0.06. At that point, caution may be warranted, but we are far from these levels at this point.

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• MicroStrategy (MSTR) announced a $42 billion capital program, including a $21 billion ATM stock offering to purchase Bitcoin.

• Metaplanet (3350.T) holds over 1,000 BTC and is the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder in Asia.

• Microsoft (MSFT) will hold a shareholder meeting in December and vote on a potential ビットコイン financial strategy.

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MicroStrategys (MSTR) decision to use Bitcoin as a financial reserve is a boon to shareholders and boosts Bitcoin adoption among publicly traded institutions. Since January, companies such as Metaplanet (Asias largest public Bitcoin holder, with over 1,000 BTC), Semler Scientific, and Samara Asset Group have followed suit. This trend could influence Microsofts (MSFT) shareholders to vote on a similar strategy in December.

Insights

MicroStrategy plans to issue $21 billion of Class A common stock over the next three years to purchase Bitcoin, and Michael Saylors $42 billion capital plan includes $21 billion in stock issuance and aims to raise $21 billion in fixed income securities to finance the purchase of Bitcoin.

Inspired by the success of MicroStrategy, Japans Metaplanet also adopted a Bitcoin reserve strategy this spring and currently holds more than 1,000 BTC, becoming the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder in Asia. Due to Bitcoins deflationary nature and an average annual return of 40%, it has become the preferred reserve asset for hedging excess cash. Even large technology companies are beginning to follow suit: Microsoft shareholders will vote in December on whether to adopt Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Although management has said no, strong shareholder interest may change the decision, which may trigger a wider adoption of Bitcoin by listed companies.

Regulation

Key Points

• SEC approves Bitcoin ETF options: an important step towards mainstream financial product integration.

• Pennsylvania’s Bitcoin Bill of Rights: A milestone in protecting Bitcoin self-custody and payment rights.

• Thailand proposes crypto fund access: Crypto adoption in Asia could increase

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Recent regulatory developments, especially the approval of Bitcoin ETF options and active legislative movements in the United States, could significantly boost investor confidence. This could lead to a surge in Bitcoin prices, especially if these moves are seen as paving the way for more mainstream financial integration. In addition, monitor regulatory developments from key markets such as the United States, where political changes may affect regulatory approaches, and countries such as Asia are opening up to crypto funds, which may affect regional and global market sentiment.

Insights

October was a pivotal moment for the Bitcoin regulatory landscape, with the SEC’s approval of Bitcoin ETF options trading demonstrating the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies by traditional finance. This development not only provides investors with additional hedging and speculation tools, but may also improve Bitcoin’s liquidity and price stability in the long run.

Pennsylvanias recent legislation recognizing Bitcoins self-custody and payment rights may influence other US states. This may lead to a more Bitcoin-friendly environment, reduce concerns about strict regulation, and create an atmosphere conducive to investment. Asian markets, especially Thailands move to allow private funds to invest in cryptocurrencies, hint at the widespread acceptance of cryptocurrencies in one of the worlds largest economic zones, which may drive trends in neighboring countries.

Macro Outlook

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• The rising U.S. federal debt has highlighted the limitations of fiat currencies, driving interest in Bitcoin.

• The continued inflation shown by the CPl has enhanced the appeal of Bitcoin as a hedge. Amid concerns about the long-term stability of the US dollar, institutional investors are increasingly considering Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward trend, driven by growing concerns about federal debt and inflation, and monitoring CPL and federal debt levels can provide early indicators of Bitcoins potential appreciation in the coming months.

Insights

In a high-debt, inflation-prone market environment, Bitcoins value proposition is clearer than ever. The first chart below shows the relationship between federal debt and Bitcoin price. As federal debt climbs to unprecedented levels, the sustainability of the U.S. dollar as a store of value has been increasingly questioned. Investors, especially institutional investors, are seeking alternatives that are not subject to currency debasement. Bitcoin has a limited supply and can effectively hedge against the risks of excessive debt accumulation and currency debasement.

The second chart below shows the continued rise in inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) relative to Bitcoin, which remains high even when excluding more volatile categories such as food and energy. This solidifies Bitcoins position as a long-term store of value that can maintain purchasing power during times of economic uncertainty. With inflation showing no signs of abating and the federal debt continuing to expand, Bitcoin is uniquely positioned as a strategic asset to preserve value and hedge against economic instability.

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Key Points

• Price action is about to close at all-time highs on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts, which is very bullish on all of these time frames.

• This is only the 7th time in Bitcoins history that MRl has closed the 2-month bar chart with a green asterisk. All six previous times resulted in gains of more than 100% in the following year.

• The cup-with-handle chart pattern and Fibonacci extensions offer additional bullish price targets in the $100,000 to $105,000 range.

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The biggest concern right now is groupthink where everyone expects prices to go over $100,000. Personally, I dont see anything worrisome in the TA charts, on-chain analysis, 4-year halving cycle analysis, mining, or any regulatory setbacks. Many people bought Bitcoin expecting it to receive greater regulatory acceptance under the Trump administration.

Insights

Bitcoin is primed for a potential bull run, with technical indicators pointing to three price targets. The Tone Vays MRl indicator on the 2-month chart shows gains of at least 100% over the past 6 months, suggesting a peak of around $140,000 or more by the second quarter of 2025. This pattern is consistent with the big rallies in 2017 and 2021.

Furthermore, the cup and handle pattern on the weekly and monthly charts points to a target of $105,000, which is usually achieved within 4-6 months based on historical trends. Finally, the Fibonacci extension shows an initial target of $102,000, with higher levels of $155,000 and $210,000 likely to be reached if the previous cycle repeats.

This article is sourced from the internet: Bitcoin Market Report: Key Trends, Insights and Bullish Price Predictions

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