トレーダーの視点から見た米国選挙：選挙結果とビットコインの価格動向

After dawn, history will come.

The fate of Bitcoin and the US White House election seem to have never been so closely intertwined. Since the end of October, Trumps winning rate on major prediction platforms has been declining, and Bitcoin has also been fluctuating. Related reading: On the eve of the storm, Trump is full of fighting spirit. As the hero and Bitcoin president of the 暗号currency circle, if Trump wins the election, what kind of explosion will the price of Bitcoin usher in? If he loses the election, what will happen to the cryptocurrency circle and Bitcoin?

As the election day draws near, lets take a look at the predictions of top traders and prepare a foolproof トレーディング strategy.

What do traders think about the future trend of Bitcoin?

PlanB: BTCは25年末までに$1百万に達すると予想されている

PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and is well-known in the crypto industry for his unique model of the relationship between asset scarcity and price. His analysis looks at the growth potential of Bitcoins long-term value, especially price fluctuations after the halving event. His latest forecast points out that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may usher in an unprecedented price surge. PlanB constructs a series of monthly timelines to show the direction of Bitcoins price development under different market scenarios.

数か月前の予測では、PlanB は独自のモデル S 2 F に基づいて具体的な値を示しました。

October: A classic month of skyrocketing, BTC reaches $70,000. PlanB predicts that the price of Bitcoin will see a strong rise in October. He believes that the surge in Bitcoin may be driven by increased volatility in the global market and the recovery of investor confidence, which is also the point in time when Bitcoin has shown price surges many times in history.

November: Trump wins the election, Bitcoin price reaches $100,000. PlanBは、トランプ氏が選挙に勝てば、ビットコインは大きな転換点を迎えるだろうと考えている。同氏は、トランプ氏が政権を握れば仮想通貨に友好的な政策がもたらされ、現在のバイデン/ハリス政権による仮想通貨に対する戦争、特にゲイリー・ゲンスラー氏やエリザベス・ウォーレン氏などの上級規制当局者に対する政策上の牽制と均衡が終わる可能性があり、ビットコインの価格が$100,000まで一気に上昇するだろうと指摘した。

December: ETF funds poured in, and Bitcoin soared to $150,000. PlanBは、トランプ氏の勝利によりビットコインETFの承認の道が開かれ、市場に大量の資金が流入すると予想している。ETFの流入は、主流の金融市場の受け入れと認識、投資家の信頼を表しており、ビットコインの価格をさらに$150,000に押し上げるだろう。

January 2025: Crypto returns to the US, Bitcoin climbs to $200,000. With the Trump administrations openness to cryptocurrency policies, a large number of crypto companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the US. PlanB expects this to have a significant market demand effect, pushing the price of Bitcoin to $200,000.

February 2025: The Power Law team takes profits and the price falls back to $150,000. The February pullback is a prediction of a Bitcoin market adjustment. PlanB believes that investors profit-taking will cause Bitcoin to briefly fall back to $150,000 after hitting a high. However, this adjustment will be short-lived and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of the rise.

March to May 2025: Bitcoin globalization trend, price breaks through $500,000. Starting in March, PlanB expects Bhutan, Argentina, Dubai and other countries to gradually use Bitcoin as legal tender, and starting in April, the United States will also start a strategic reserve of Bitcoin under the promotion of Trump. Then, in May, he believes that other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this trend, causing Bitcoin to further climb to $500,000.

June 2025: AI boosts the price to $600,000. In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that AI will begin to autonomously participate in Bitcoin market arbitrage. He predicts that with the participation of AI in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency trading will further drive the price up, causing Bitcoin to exceed $600,000.

July to December 2025: FOMO fades, price reaches $1 million. In the following months, PlanB believes that the markets FOMO sentiment begins to fade, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this point, Bitcoin has not only become a mainstream asset reserve, but also a must-have for global investors.

2026-2027: 市場 adjustment and bear market. In 2026, PlanB expects the price of Bitcoin to fall from $1 million to $500,000 and enter the distribution stage. By 2027, the market will enter a bear market and the price of Bitcoin is expected to drop to $200,000.

PlanBは、この予測の鍵はビットコインの希少価値にあると結論付けた。同氏は、希少性が不動産や金などの希少資産と同様に資産価格を左右する中核的な要因になると指摘した。PlanBは、今後18か月でビットコインの価格は半減期効果と市場の需要により急騰し、世界中の投資家の間でデジタルゴールドとしての地位を強化し続けると予想している。

The key to PlanBs prediction is the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He pointed out that investors like scarcity, and there are basically three options for scarcity now: real estate (S2F 100, market value of $10 trillion), gold (S2F 60, market value of $20 trillion) or Bitcoin (S2F 120, market value of $1 trillion). Therefore, the scarcity of Bitcoin will become a core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold.

PlanB proposed the opposite scenario, that if Harris wins, he believes it will represent the end of Western civilization and continue to exacerbate the decline of the American empire. He expects the crypto industry to be further oppressed under the supervision of Gensler and Warren, continue more choke point actions, and may even face more stringent tax policies, such as the introduction of unrealized capital gains tax. However, he also emphasized that Bitcoin does not rely on a specific regulatory environment, and its value drive will still come from the global demand for scarcity.

Alex Kruger: BTC spot will be the main currency on election night

Alex Kr眉ger, an Argentine economist, trader and consultant, believes that the election results will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin prices:

Trump wins: Bitcoin price target is $90,000 by the end of the year. Kr眉ger estimates that if Trump wins, Bitcoin price will quickly reach $90,000 by the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin price will soar rapidly because the market has partially anticipated the positive impact of Trumps victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there is still a certain degree of price underestimation, and the markets rapid reaction will be reflected soon after the news is confirmed.

Harris wins: Bitcoins target price at the end of the year is $65,000. If Harris wins the election, Bitcoin is expected to fall slightly before rising, and may eventually close at $65,000. Kr眉ger puts the probability of this scenario at 45%, and points out that Harriss coming to power may mean the continuation of existing policies. Market fluctuations in this scenario are more uncertain, but Kr眉ger believes that Bitcoin prices are still supported and may continue to rise after the shock, although the magnitude is not as expected when Trump was elected.

Kr眉ger stressed the importance of timing, especially for leveraged investors. He pointed out that if the market confirms Trumps victory, the price of Bitcoin will rise rapidly, while in the case of Harriss victory, the price trend may experience a longer period of volatility. Krugers personal operation is an unleveraged position (mainly Bitcoin and some technology stocks such as Nvidia). He believes that spot positions should be the main focus to avoid the volatility risks brought by high leverage.

At the same time, Kr眉ger said that regardless of the election results, he remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market, but the premise is that there will be no blue sweep – that is, the Democratic Party wins both the presidency and both houses of Congress. He pointed out that the rise and fall of the stock market will directly affect Bitcoin, because the price of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the U.S. stock index. Especially in the scenario of Trumps victory, he expects that more friendly cryptocurrency policies and growth-oriented economic measures will drive the stock market higher, which will in turn benefit Bitcoin.

At present, Kr眉ger pointed out that the market has partially priced in Trumps victory, but based on different betting data and election models, Trumps chances of winning are still between 50% and 63%. This suspenseful setting of the election has prevented the market from fully digesting the possibility of winning, bringing a greater surprise impact to the election results. Regarding the strategy on election night, Kruger said that he will mainly hold Bitcoin spot and take long-term operations if Trump wins, such as increasing his holdings of Solana (SOL).

ギバー：中間選挙は選挙後に行われる

The Giver is an anonymous senior investor with extensive experience in buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He currently works in special situation private equity, providing a different perspective. The Givers strategy is more conservative and short-term-focused than Kr眉ger and PlanB. He believes that the election-driven rise in Bitcoin is more of a temporary phenomenon than a long-term trend. This view places special emphasis on the driving effects of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that Bitcoin may see a downward adjustment after the election. His specific analysis is:

The driving force behind Bitcoins rise this time is from event-driven non-sticky buyers, that is, some short-term speculators seeking to hedge against election risks, not due to overall trends. These buyers will not hold Bitcoin for a long time, and they may quickly exit the market once the election dust settles. Therefore, these funds lack stickiness and Bitcoin prices may face selling pressure after the election.

アルトコインのパフォーマンスの低迷とビットコインへの集中。彼の意見では、資金の流入は主にビットコインに集中しており、アルトコインには広く流入していないため、アルトコインのパフォーマンスが低迷している。これは、現在の資本の流れが、暗号通貨市場全体の利益というよりも、ヘッジツールとしてのビットコインに基づいていることを示しています。

The Giver expects that Bitcoins open interest and positions will continue to be crowded in the coming week, and even reach new highs. He pointed out that this right-side effect may bring a short-term surge in Bitcoin prices, but it is unlikely to last into the next year due to the limited market capacity in the fourth quarter of 2024. This short-term effect makes it more likely that Bitcoin prices will peak before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is not enough to support a long-term rally.

Based on this judgment, The Giver gave a relatively aggressive investment strategy: Based on the current market environment, he suggested going long on Bitcoin and shorting other mainstream coins and altcoins. Bitcoin will test $70,000 before Election Day, but after the results are announced, no matter who wins, there will eventually be a mid-term decline. More related reading: From the Trump effect, Microstrategy premium to the liquidity cycle, analyzing the BTC price performance in 2024

マーカス: BTC ロングと SOL ショートのヘッジ戦略

Markus Thielen 氏は、Matrixport および 10X Research の著名なアナリストです。数か月前に彼がビットコインの市場価値を $1 兆と予測したことは極めて正確で、投資コミュニティに急速に広まり、彼を有名にしました。

Markus latest analysis is based on 10X Researchs latest signal model, which has a hit rate of 73% to 87%, usually achieved within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if the price of Bitcoin continues to develop along the historical trend, it may rise by 8% in the next two weeks, 13% in a month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. Based on this calculation, the price of Bitcoin may exceed $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach a target of about $140,000 on April 29, 2025.

Regarding the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election results on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. If Trump wins, Markus predicts that Bitcoin may rise by 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also gain similar gains. He believes that Trumps victory will bring a more cryptocurrency-friendly policy environment, which is expected to drive the market up.

If Harris wins, Bitcoin will fall by about 9%. At the same time, the tightening of the Democratic Partys regulatory policies may affect the approval process of other cryptocurrency ETFs. For example, the Solana ETF submitted by 3 iQ Digital may face delays or even rejection due to the Harris administration. The increased difficulty of Solana ETF approval will further affect Solanas market demand and price performance. Therefore, Markus predicts that Solana may fall more than Bitcoin, by about 15%.

In this scenario, Markus recommends a strategy of going long on Bitcoin and short on Solana to hedge against the uncertainty caused by the election . However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or disputed, this will increase market uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.

In the event that the election results are controversial or Harris victory causes a short-term decline in Bitcoin, Markus emphasized that Bitcoin may still show strong resistance to declines, and therefore recommends that investors seize the buying window after a short-term decline in Bitcoin.

From the derivatives market and on-chain data, the total amount of Bitcoin held by short-term holders increased in October, while the Bitcoin holdings of long-term holders decreased. This dynamic usually occurs when the price is about to break through an important threshold. The total amount of open contracts in the Bitcoin options market has soared to $22.5 billion in 2024, showing the markets high sentiment for the Bitcoin bull market. Bitcoins 25 Delta skewness is at the lower end of the annual range (-8% to -10%), which indicates strong bullish sentiment.

Thielen also paid special attention to the impact of MicroStrategys stock performance on Bitcoin prices. He pointed out that MicroStrategys stock price has risen 33% since October, and its stock surge has had a dog tail effect on Bitcoin prices. The covering of a large number of short positions has also further boosted the markets bullish sentiment on Bitcoin.

スタンダード・チャータードのアナリスト：トランプ氏が勝利すれば、BTCは年末までに$125,000に上昇する

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick has predicted that if Trump wins the November election, the price of Bitcoin could climb to $125,000 by the end of the year, Cointelegraph reported on Oct. 25.

Kendrick鈥檚 model shows that Bitcoin could stabilize around $73,000 on Election Day (November 5). In the event of a Trump victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to rise by about 4% immediately and another 10% in the following days , with rising market confidence and a looser regulatory environment becoming the main drivers.

If Harris is elected president, Kendricks expectations are relatively conservative, predicting that Bitcoin may face selling pressure in the short term, but is expected to stabilize around $75,000 by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, a research report from another brokerage, Bernstein, pointed out that if Trump wins the US election in November, Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high later this year, and the price of Bitcoin may reach $90,000 by the fourth quarter. In contrast, if Harris wins, the market may expect increased regulation, and the price of BTC may fall back to the range of $30,000 to $40,000.

誰が大統領になるのか、そして他の資産はどれほどの影響を与えるのか？

Overall, if Harris wins, assets that tend to be bullish include gold, crude oil, copper and the US dollar; stocks (including A-shares and US stocks) and Bitcoin (BTC) may be under pressure in the short term, while US bonds will show a short-term bearish and long-term bullish trend. At the same time, cryptocurrencies such as Solana (SOL) may also face downward pressure under the expectation of stricter regulation.

If Trump wins, the trading mechanism will be more complicated. Asset categories that are more bullish include cryptocurrencies such as gold and Bitcoin. US stocks and the US dollar may show a trend of short-term rise but medium-term correction. A-shares are short-term bearish and long-term bullish, while assets such as crude oil, US bonds, and copper may be affected to a certain extent. Assets that are more closely related to traditional crypto regulation, such as Solana, are expected to benefit from policy support, but their benefits are slightly less than Bitcoin.

米国株

トランプ氏の勝利は、米国株式市場の小型株と特定の産業、特に伝統的なエネルギー、銃器製造、民間刑務所運営者、小規模小売業者に利益をもたらすと予想されている。トランプ氏は、特に国内製造業に対する低税率と規制緩和を好んでいるため、法人税減税とエネルギーおよび鉱業への支援は小型株の上昇を後押しする可能性がある。ラッセル2000指数（小型株ベンチマーク）はこの予想を反映し始めており、10月初旬から約4%上昇している。

If Harris is elected, the market tends to pay attention to her policies of expanding health insurance and Medicaid. Healthcare stocks may benefit, but overall US stocks are under pressure. In addition, the US dollar and US bonds may strengthen in the short term, and the market remains vigilant about possible regulations and corporate tax policies, which may suppress confidence in the overall stock market.

米ドルと外国為替 交換 市場

The expectation of Trumps victory has been reflected in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Mexican peso, which is considered one of the currencies most affected by Trumps immigration policies. Market volatility has also increased significantly when Trumps election prospects have improved, with the MSCI Latin American Currency Index falling more than 3%, while the US dollar has strengthened significantly after Trumps statement on import tariffs on Mexican goods.

If Harris wins, the dollar may remain relatively strong in the short term, especially as the Fed is expected to remain prudent in its interest rate decisions. If economic policies promote long-term fiscal stimulus, the medium-term volatility of the dollar may remain moderate, and the pressure on emerging market currencies such as Latin America will be reduced.

石油と銅

If Trump wins, traditional energy industries (such as oil and fossil fuels) may rise due to Trumps supportive policies. Trumps energy policies tend to reduce regulations and support domestic mining and fossil fuel use, which will have a positive impact on related markets.

Harris is inclined to adopt stricter policies on environmental protection and climate policy, which may bring certain medium- and long-term pressure on oil. Metals such as copper may benefit from the expected demand growth brought about by green infrastructure construction, but the market needs to be vigilant about the potential supply chain pressure brought about by tax increase policies and environmental protection policies.

米国債

トランプ氏の勝利は米国債にとって短期的にはプラスとなる。金利・債券市場では、市場アナリストはスマートマネーが債券市場に注目し始めていると指摘。トランプ氏の勝利への期待から米国債の利回りが上昇する可能性がある。長期的には、財政拡大とインフレリスクの影響で、米国債はより大きな売り圧力に直面する可能性がある。

But if Harris wins the election, the U.S. bond market may show short short and long long in the short term. Short-term selling pressure may be exacerbated by interest rate expectations or the shift of funds to risky assets, but in the long run, the demand for bonds may be supported due to lower expected inflation.

金

最も伝統的なインフレヘッジツールである金は、選挙で誰が勝利するかに関係なく、引き続き上昇するようです。アナリストは一般的に、米国政府の債務問題は拡大し続け、インフレによって緩和されると考えています。そのため、金とビットコインは、投資家にとってインフレに対するヘッジの主な選択肢となっています。金は、その安全資産としての特性により、米ドルの潜在的な下落圧力と経済の不確実性に対処するために投資家を引き付けるでしょう。

しかし、スタンダード・チャータード銀行のアナリストは、トランプ氏の勝利後には財政支出が増加すると市場が予想しており、短期的にはインフレが進み、金の需要がさらに高まることから、金価格はトランプ氏の勝利後に上昇する可能性が高いと指摘した。

The hero of the crypto world, what has Trump done in the crypto world?

かつてトランプ氏は仮想通貨の強硬な反対者だった。2019年初頭、まだ大統領在任中だったトランプ氏は、ビットコインやその他の仮想通貨は価値がなく、暗号資産は違法行為の道具として利用される可能性があると公に批判した。同氏はビットコインは通貨ではなく、極めて不安定だと述べた。

After leaving the White House, Trump continued to be reserved in interviews, calling Bitcoin a scam and insisting that the U.S. dollar should be the worlds only reserve currency. During this period, Trumps attitude towards cryptocurrencies was generally negative. But the NFT trend in 2021 soon began to influence Trumps views.

The story begins in 2022. At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a cold winter, many crypto projects were on the verge of bankruptcy, and market confidence was low. At this time, Trumps long-term adviser Bill Zanker appeared in his life and brought a suggestion to change Trumps mind: issuing Trump-themed NFTs.

トランプ氏はこれに意外な関心を示したが、NFTという用語が気に入らず、デジタルトレーディングカードと呼ぶことを好んだ。奇妙に思えたが、これらのカードは非常に人気があり、1枚あたり$99で販売され、発売後すぐに完売した。トランプ氏のNFTは、実際に前大統領が初めて暗号通貨業界の人々の前に立つことを可能にした。数千万ドルの収入をもたらしただけでなく、新しい強力な支援グループを発見することも可能にした。

その結果、暗号化に対するトランプ大統領の姿勢はここ数年で完全に逆転した。

November 1, 2024 is the 16th anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin white paper. Trump tweeted his blessing for Bitcoin and said that if elected, he would end the Harris administrations crackdown on cryptocurrencies and even called on supporters to help him realize his vision of Bitcoin Made in America. At this point, he is no longer an opponent or even just a bystander, but a presidential candidate of crypto advocates.

最も象徴的な出来事は、ナッシュビルで開催されたビットコイン2024カンファレンスへの出席で、トランプ氏は仮想通貨の熱心な支持者になると発表した。彼は仮想通貨コミュニティの最大の問題点を理解しており、SECの現議長ゲイリー・ゲンスラー氏を解任し、仮想通貨を理解している規制当局者を後任に任命すると約束した。

彼は、暗号化に反対するのは間違った政策であり、米国をビットコイン大国にし、より友好的な規制環境を通じて世界の暗号化産業の発展をリードしたいと率直に述べた。さらに、ビットコインを現代経済の中核と称賛し、将来ビットコインが月に行くなら、米国がそのリーダーになれることを望んでいると述べた。

トランプ大統領はビットコイン2024カンファレンスに出席した。出典：WSJ

演説の中でトランプ氏は、仮想通貨に対する民主党の厳しい姿勢と自分を対比させようと全力を尽くし、特に仮想通貨規制で知られるエリザベス・ウォーレン氏と自分を比べた。また、当選すれば大統領仮想通貨諮問委員会を設置すると指摘した。トランプ氏の発言は、聴衆から即座に温かい拍手と歓声を巻き起こした。さらに衝撃的なのは、ビットコインの市場価値が将来的に金を上回る可能性を示唆し、バイデン政権とハリス政権の反仮想通貨政策を公然と批判したことだ。

会議中、トランプ氏は国民の覚醒を経験したようだ。彼はもはや仮想通貨に懐疑的だった前大統領ではなく、ビットコインと自由市場の擁護者になった。聴衆は彼の態度の変化に感化され、彼を仮想通貨界の英雄とみなした。

トランプ大統領はビットコイン2024カンファレンスに出席した。出典：ニューヨークタイムズ

この変化の背後にあるもう一つの詳細から、トランプ氏と仮想通貨の微妙なつながりが明らかになる。会議でトランプ氏は、群衆の中の仮想通貨支持者を見ながら、ビットコインが前回の大統領在任中に$1,000未満から$30,000以上に3,900%上昇したと述べた。彼のスピーチは聴衆を熱狂させただけでなく、イーロン・マスク氏、双子のウィンクルボス兄弟、ベンチャーキャピタル大手A16Zの創設者マーク・アンドリーセン氏などビットコイン業界の大物たちの支持も獲得し、全員がトランプ氏の仮想通貨政策への支持を表明した。

ビットコイン自体に加え、トランプ大統領はビットコインマイニングが米国のエネルギー安全保障と経済主権において果たす重要な役割を徐々に認識し始めている。2024年6月、トランプ大統領は米国の複数の大手ビットコインマイニング企業の幹部と会談し、政策面で暗号通貨マイニング活動を強力に支援することを約束した。さらにトランプ大統領は、ビットコインマイニングが中央銀行デジタル通貨（CBDC）に対する最後の防衛線であり、残りのビットコインがすべて米国で製造されることを望んでいると、Truth Socialプラットフォームに投稿した。トランプ大統領の見解では、ビットコインマイニングは単なる経済活動ではなく、中央銀行と戦う米国の意志を象徴するものでもある。

9月、トランプ大統領はニューヨークのビットコインをテーマにしたバー「パブキー」でビットコインでチーズバーガーを購入した。この行動はビットコインを金融投資商品から日常取引通貨へと引き戻す可能性も促し、彼の暗号通貨に対する姿勢の象徴となった。

トランプ大統領は仮想通貨コミュニティに対してさらに大きな約束もしました。ビットコインの戦略的備蓄を保持すると公言しただけでなく、ダークウェブプラットフォームの運営で終身刑を宣告されたローズ・ウルブリヒトを恩赦する計画も立てました。これらの過激な措置により、トランプ大統領は仮想通貨コミュニティの救世主になることに成功しました。彼はビットコインを政府の過度な規制から守り、米国を世界の仮想通貨の中心にすることを約束しました。

トランプ氏がホワイトハウスに復帰するかどうかの不確実性の中で、ビットコインと暗号通貨市場全体の将来は岐路に立っているようだ。過去数年間、政治的混乱、政策変更、世界経済の不確実性により、ビットコインは一歩ずつ新たな高みへと押し上げられてきた。トランプ氏が再び政権に就けば、暗号通貨に対する彼の支持が間違いなく市場に新たな熱狂を引き起こし、ビットコインを新たな高みへと導き、さらには米国の金融環境を一変させるかもしれない。

This article is sourced from the internet: US election from a trader鈥檚 perspective: Election results and Bitcoin price trends

Related: ​INTO: The “value gravity field” of the Web3 world

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