暗号通貨市場の嵐後の機会と課題、市場の回復、あるいは別の弱気市場の罠？ | ウィークリーマーケット

At 8 pm on August 22, in a live broadcast on Matrixport’s official YouTube channel, Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management at Matrixport, discussed in depth the opportunities and challenges of the current cryptocurrency market and provided investors with comprehensive market analysis and strategic recommendations to help users make more rational investment decisions in the current complex market environment.

The highlights of the live broadcast are as follows

Daniel analyzed the signals of the market rebound this week (August 18-August 24), pointing out that the recent US employment report may have overestimated the extent of economic weakness, thereby raising market expectations for a shift in the Feds policy. This expectation may drive a rebound in risky assets such as Bitcoin in the short term, but investors should be cautious to avoid falling into a bear market trap. In addition, the Mt. Gox massive Bitcoin transfer event may have once again triggered market concerns about selling pressure. Investors are advised to pay close attention to large transactions to assess their potential impact on market liquidity.

Market Overview

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has rapidly dropped from nearly $62,000 to $57,000, showing a box-shaped oscillation trend. The market atmosphere is sluggish, and investment research reports show that investment returns have declined, especially the performance of quantitative strategies and arbitrage strategies. The sale of Bitcoin and tokens by large institutions such as Mt.Gox and the US government has affected the market, leading to increased price fluctuations. The market seems to be affected by the quantitative selling strategy of institutions, and prices often fall after reaching new highs.

Perpetual contract funding rate hits bottom

• The funding rate of perpetual contracts has reached the lowest level in recent years, and even turned negative. Short-term yields are low, but long-term yields remain at a high level, reflecting the markets uncertainty about the short term.

• Short selling is evident, with selling occurring every time prices rise, and market sentiment has yet to recover.

Ethereum Performance and Short-Term Bearish Pressure

• Ethereum has performed poorly recently, with low on-chain activity and prices. Institutions tend to short in the futures market rather than sell spot.

Cryptocurrency market expectations and Bitcoin supply and demand

• Bitcoin is regarded as digital gold, and its valuation is greatly affected by supply and demand and macroeconomic factors. In contrast, the valuation of Ethereum and other assets depends more on on-chain activity and business activities.

• The current market may have upward momentum after experiencing bottom support, but attention should be paid to the impact of institutional reduction and interest rate cut expectations. The Bitcoin market has not broken through the previous high, and the U.S. stock and gold markets have performed strongly.

• Bitcoins long-term returns benefit from limited supply and changes in monetary policy, while assets such as Ethereum face different valuation challenges. For investors who want to obtain stable returns, quantitative strategies and structured products provide good options. When choosing, you should pay attention to the maximum loss and return range of the product.

The impact of the Fed’s rate cut on the crypto market

• Since the halving, the price of Bitcoin has not been as good as market expectations, and investors are pinning their hopes on a rate cut. Currently, the probability of a rate cut on September 24 has increased significantly, but the base for the cut is still controversial.

• After the market obtains a bottom support through interest rate cuts, there may be an upward momentum and some good expectations, but there will not be a big rise or even a direct start of a bull market, and the related impacts have already been priced in.

• In addition to Bitcoin, some tokens or projects did not really attract global users in this rate cut. On the contrary, a large amount of institutional funds or quantitative strategies will gain an absolute return. Because institutional investment has some advantages over retail investors in terms of personnel, trading team, trading system and information advantages, financial management is a good choice at present.

Current Market Asset Allocation

Take advantage of high volatility markets to profit

• Investment strategies for high-volatility assets: Analyze the nature of the high volatility characteristics of the crypto market (similar to tidal power generation) and explore how to achieve returns through strategic investment in the high-volatility crypto market

• Choose a professional institution: Currently, a large number of quantitative transactions in the market may be hosted by machines. Frequent transactions will greatly increase the probability of making mistakes. Therefore, through the quantitative tools or products of professional institutions, risks can be reasonably avoided and some volatility investments can be made.

• Structured products: Investors are advised to use structured products and quantitative strategies during market downturns. The characteristics of Matrixport’s Shark Fin, Snowball, Dual Currency and other products determine that they can take advantage of the high volatility of the market.

Crypto market segmentation and investment allocation

• Crypto market segmentation: The Crypto market can be divided into mid-bull stage, peaking stage, mid-bear stage, bottoming out stage and early bull stage. Currently, most investors in the market expect the market to be in the early and mid-bull stage, and it has not yet reached the top.

• Market expectations and investment advice: In view of the current market conditions, it is recommended to choose some products for personalization based on your own risk management needs, such as structured products (such as Shark Fin, Snowball, Dual Currency and Trend Intelligence), to help investors obtain stable returns in market fluctuations.

• Core-satellite strategy: Currently, the core-satellite strategy can be adopted, which is to invest most of the funds in stable principal-guaranteed products, and at the same time allocate a small part of the funds to high-yield structured products. Through the combination of different financial products, strategic investment can be used to achieve returns in the high-volatility market. For example, 70%-80% of the assets are selected for principal-guaranteed products, and the remaining 20%-30% are selected for relatively high-risk and high-yield financial products to achieve risk management.

Collar Option Strategy and Risk Management

• Option strategy and risk management: Compared with direct mortgage lending, the financing rate of USDT financing for collar options is as low as about 4%, which can help miner investors who are worried about insurance calls and tail risks to reduce capital costs and avoid risks in a high volatility environment.

さらに興味深いコンテンツについては、YouTube コンテンツのリプレイをご覧ください。 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwzworphd_w

【About Matrixport Weekly Market Insights】

【Matrixport Weekly Market Insights】is a new interactive knowledge sharing column launched by Matrixport, which is broadcast live on Matrixportの公式YouTubeチャンネル 毎週開催されます。このコラムでは、業界の製品リーダー、トップアナリスト、KOLを定期的に招き、さまざまな市場状況での投資ロジックについて議論し、投資経験を共有し、ユーザーが資産価値の向上を実現できるよう支援します。

Matrixport YouTubeチャンネルを購読する 今すぐ最新の市場情報をリアルタイムで入手しましょう。

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This article is sourced from the internet: ​​Opportunities and challenges after the Crypto market storm, market rebound or another bear market trap? | Weekly market insight review

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