Mild inflation data, price range fluctuations
画像出典: https://hk.investing.com/
This week, two important inflation data, PPI and CPI, were released. CNBC said the data showed that the United States has passed the environment of ultra-high inflation. Moderate inflation data may mean that the Federal Reserve can turn its attention to other economic challenges, such as employment rate.
Data: PPI data, an indicator of producer inflation, showed that prices rose by only 0.2% in July and were up about 2.2% year-on-year. This figure is now very close to the Feds 2% target, indicating that market expectations for the central bank to start cutting interest rates are basically on target.
CPI data, an indicator of consumer inflation, showed a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9% over the past 12 months, a figure that, while much lower than the high point in mid-2022, is still far from the Feds 2% target.
In terms of market conditions: After the release of the PPI data at 20:30 on the evening of the 13th, Hong Kong time, the market began to rise, and Bitcoin rose from 59,000 to around 61,500. It was not until the release of the CPI data at 20:30 on the 14th that the market began to fall, and Bitcoin fell from 61,500 to around 58,000.
Future events: The latest employment rate data will be released on September 6, the latest CPI and PPI data will be released on September 11 and 12, and the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate decision at 02:00 Hong Kong time on September 19. September will be a critical node. If the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates, the market may bring a new round of surprises.
There are about 33 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (September 19, 2024)
https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168
市場テクニカルおよび感情環境分析
感情分析コンポーネント
テクニカル指標
Price Trends
BTC price fell -6.72% and ETH price fell -4.2% in the past week.
上の画像は、過去 1 週間の BTC の価格チャートです。
上の画像は、過去 1 週間の ETH の価格チャートです。
表には過去 1 週間の価格変動率が表示されています。
価格ボリューム分布チャート（サポートとレジスタンス）
In the past week, both BTC and ETH have been fluctuating downward in a range of dense trading areas.
上の図は、過去 1 週間の BTC の取引密度の高いエリアの分布を示しています。
上の図は、過去 1 週間の ETH 密集取引エリアの分布を示しています。
この表は、過去 1 週間の BTC と ETH の週ごとの集中取引範囲を示しています。
取引量と建玉
In the past week, both BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they rebounded sharply on August 12; the open interest of BTC increased while that of ETH decreased.
上の図の上はBTCの価格動向、真ん中は取引量、下は未決済建玉、水色は1日平均、オレンジ色は7日平均です。Kラインの色は現在の状態を表し、緑は価格上昇が取引量によって支えられていること、赤はポジションのクローズ、黄色はゆっくりとポジションを蓄積していること、黒は混雑した状態を意味します。
上の図の上はETHの価格動向、真ん中は取引量、下は未決済建玉、水色は1日平均、オレンジ色は7日平均です。Kラインの色は現在の状態を表し、緑は価格上昇が取引量によって支えられていること、赤はポジションをクローズしていること、黄色はゆっくりとポジションを蓄積していること、黒は混雑していることを意味しています。
ヒストリカルボラティリティとインプライドボラティリティ
In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when they rebounded sharply on August 12; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH both decreased.
黄色の線は過去のボラティリティ、青い線はインプライド ボラティリティ、赤い点は 7 日間の平均です。
イベント駆動型
The PPI and CPI inflation data were released this past week. After the PPI data was released at 20:30 on the evening of the 13th Hong Kong time, the market began to rise, and Bitcoin rose from 59,000 to around 61,500. It was not until 20:30 on the 14th when the CPI data was released that the market began to fall, and Bitcoin fell from 61,500 to around 58,000.
感情指標
モメンタムセンチメント
先週、ビットコイン/ゴールド/ナスダック/ハンセン指数/SSE 300の中で、ナスダックが最も強かったのに対し、ビットコインのパフォーマンスは最悪でした。
上の図は、過去 1 週間のさまざまな資産の傾向を示しています。
貸出金利_貸出感情
The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 8.1%, and short-term interest rates remained at 6.7%.
黄色の線はUSD金利の最高値、青い線は最高値の75%、赤い線は最高値の75%の7日間平均です。
この表は、過去の異なる保有日における米ドル金利の平均リターンを示している。
資金調達率_契約レバレッジ感情
The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 0.2%, and contract leverage sentiment continued to decline.
青い線はBinanceでのBTCの資金調達率、赤い線は7日間の平均です。
この表は、過去のさまざまな保有日における BTC 手数料の平均リターンを示しています。
市場相関_コンセンサスセンチメント
The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.45, and the consistency between different varieties has dropped from a high level.
In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation
市場の幅_全体的な感情
Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 4% of them were priced above the 30-day moving average, 24% of them were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 6% of them were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 7% of them were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market maintained a downward trend.
The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator
要約する
In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) showed a volatile downward trend, especially when the historical volatility and trading volume reached a peak during the sharp drop and rebound on August 12. The open interest of BTC increased, while that of ETH decreased. The implied volatility decreased. Bitcoin performed the worst in comparison with gold, Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index and CSI 300, while Nasdaq performed the strongest. Bitcoins funding rate continued to decline, reflecting the continued decline in market participants interest in its leveraged trading. The correlation between the selected 129 currencies remained at around 0.45, showing that the consistency between different varieties has declined from a high level. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies in the overall market are still in a downward trend. The market began to rise after the PPI data was released on the 13th, and then the market began to fall after the CPI data was released on the 14th.
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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.08.09-08.16): Mild Inflation Data Price Range Fluctuation
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