Solana の「スマートウォレット」1,000 個を覗いてみよう: 最も儲けているのは誰か? そこから何を学べるか?

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オリジナル | Odaily Planet Daily ( ＠OdailyChina )

著者｜ナン・ジー（ アサシン )

Recently, the difficulty of Meme transactions in the Solana ecosystem has gradually increased, and the number of Golden Dogs has decreased. However, in such an environment, there are still a group of smart wallets that are still making huge profits. Which addresses are still printing money, what are their transaction characteristics, and what indicators are the key to success ?

In this article, Odaily sorted out the top holding addresses of 27 popular and large-cap Meme tokens and summarized their data, totaling 1,080 wallet addresses, to answer the above questions. Among them:

Market capitalization: greater than $1 million, including a few tokens with more than $10 million (rocky) and more than $100 million (BILLY);
Top addresses: The top 40 holding addresses of each token, each of which has a profit of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars on the corresponding token;
Data source: mainly from GMGN , some win rate data from cielo .

Preprocessing and Score Algorithm

This section describes in detail the sample processing method, statistical dimensions, and scoring algorithm. Readers who only want to know the conclusion can go directly to the next chapter .

Preprocessing

The following processing was performed on the top 1080 wallet addresses

LP addresses and exchange addresses (such as Matcha, Gate.io, etc.) are removed;
Removed duplicate addresses (the same address became the front row of multiple high-market-cap tokens);
Addresses that have never purchased any tokens in 30 days are removed;
Addresses with an absolute profit of less than $10 in 30 days were removed (due to a large conflict with the subsequent evaluation system, they are not included for the time being);
Addresses whose winning rates cannot be counted by GMGN and cielo are not included for the time being.

After processing, there are 541 wallet addresses left, which are evaluated by the following dimensions:

Statistical Dimensions

The wallets are evaluated based on winning rate, stability, and profitability, and the scores are calculated based on the following six dimensions:

30-day wallet win rate;
The average of the number of purchases to the profit (30-day profit ÷ 30-day number of purchases);
The average of the number of sales to the profit (30-day profit ÷ 30-day number of sales);
Total profit amount;
The absolute value of the top three profits as a percentage of the total profit (the higher the percentage, the more unstable the profit and the lower the score. It is also possible that a single token has a lot of profit, while the rest are all losses, and the total profit is very low, resulting in a high ratio);
The absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profit (the higher the percentage, the greater the drawdown and the lower the score);

スコア計算方法

ここ、 Z-Score (i.e. standard score) is used to calculate the score. Each of the above six indicators will be distributed in the interval [0, 1] after calculation using Z-Score, so the highest score will be 6 points.

Who is making huge profits?

After processing and calculation using the above method, the highest score is 4.85 points. This address has only traded 42 times in the past 30 days, with a winning rate of 100%, a profit of 106,000 US dollars in 30 days, and a total profit of 436,000 US dollars. The three largest losses added up to only 8,000 US dollars.

The lowest score is 1.1 points. This address has traded 29 times in 30 days, with a win rate of 0% and a loss of $38,000 in 30 days. The highlight is the three largest profits totaling $40,000, but the three largest losses totaled $38,000.

Top 10 Features

The average of the top ten addresses with the highest comprehensive scores is calculated, and the data is as follows:

30-day wallet win rate: 63.55% (the average of the next 90 is 63.58%)
Average profit per purchase: $4,717 per purchase (average of the next 90 purchases is $623)
Average profit per sale: $4,090 per sale (average of the next 90 is $628)
Total profit amount: $980,000 (the average of the next 90 is $279,000);
The absolute value of the top three profits to the total profit share: 90.8% (the average of the next 90 is 90.67%)
The absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profits: 11.07% (the average of the next 90 is 11.62%)

It can be concluded that the strength of the top 100 players is almost the same, and the top 10 masters only have a slight advantage in retracement control. When other data are almost the same, the difference between the addresses ranked 11-100 in indicators 2 and 3 is mainly because the amount of each purchase is relatively small, so the score is lower.

The top ten addresses are:

6FNbu3i6vpigXMatC6SyWKibUAdJyyX8nM8WDtZCNcEz

6xUL8CUfV1fzd3UQoDBs7agWNXpwyE5q56css1wHNFFU

4J5rDTvRbzjuKkB4B9rvNEvDz6f1BEBzUVT5mdctKHoT

9v6RGY46wf672PtpYMxCJ1nvrVTrukUDn1AjE634rvCf

GpNbukV5nggkJfsEEbKrJaZkdgYcNWCAaD91Mi4MmGQi

DNfuF1L62WWyW3pNakVkyGGFzVVhj4Yr52jSmdTyeBHm

FTg1gqW7vPm4kdU1LPM7JJnizbgPdRDy2PitKw6mY27j

69ngexW9UkgRp5KFjLpaK9XNSCxUFmps6jYmqhK3q6m9

7XgBprwnRfFHd287pnNQj4AZ6Yb9QE5pJ6ChQ3zhsGpJ

4Be9CvxqHW6BYiRAxW9Q3xu1ycTMWaL5z8NX4HR3ha7t

What is the gap between 101st and 200th place?

The average wallet data of users with scores from 101st to 200th are as follows:

30-day wallet win rate: 45%
Average profit from purchases: $317
Mean profit from sales: $425
Total profit amount: $129,000
The absolute value of the top three profits to the total profit share: 145%
The absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profit: 25%

It can be seen that there are considerable gaps in the six dimensions, among which the most obvious gaps are indicator 2 the average of the number of purchases to the profit and indicator 6 the proportion of losses , which may mean that when the winning rate is insufficient, people are more keen to buy, resulting in insufficient profits and amplified drawdowns.

What did the ten worst players do?

30-day wallet win rate: 17%
Mean value of purchases to profit: -$10,797
Mean profit from sales: -$23,547
Total profit amount: -$146,000
The absolute value of the top three profits to the total profit ratio: 2092%
The absolute value of the top three losses as a percentage of total profit: 642%

It is worth noting that among the ten addresses with the lowest scores, three addresses had the largest three profits of US$694,000, US$403,000, and US$150,000 respectively, but their final total profits were very low.

What is the key to success?

In trading, it is often difficult to take into account multiple indicators such as win rate, profit and loss ratio, and drawdown. What aspects should we focus on to most effectively increase the net value growth of our account in Meme trading?

The Pearson correlation coefficient is used here to statistically analyze the relationship between multiple indicators and the final score. The conclusions are as follows:

Win rate has the strongest correlation with score (0.610), which shows that Solanas meme is still a fast PvP battlefield, and maintaining win rate is more important than maintaining profit and loss ratio (Diamond Hand failed).
The second strongest correlation is the maximum loss ratio (-0.495), which shows that controlling drawdown is also a key factor. Traders need to control their positions or stop losses in time (those who like to go all-in may join the worst ten-person package).
The correlation coefficients between other indicators and scores all belong to the “weak correlation category”.
The number of shots is completely unrelated to the score, which means that whether you are pumping a lot or occasionally, the results are basically the same (which may mean that most pump.fun token participation is just rolling the dice, which ultimately conforms to the law of large numbers).

結論は

To sum up, in Solana Memes PvP battlefield, escaping quickly and losing less are the keys to victory.

Odaily reminds that Meme investing is risky and this article is for reference only. Investors should decide on their own the specific investment targets and styles.

Appendix (Top 100 Smart Money Addresses)

6FNbu3i6vpigXMatC6SyWKibUAdJyyX8nM8WDtZCNcEz

6xUL8CUfV1fzd3UQoDBs7agWNXpwyE5q56css1wHNFFU

4J5rDTvRbzjuKkB4B9rvNEvDz6f1BEBzUVT5mdctKHoT

9v6RGY46wf672PtpYMxCJ1nvrVTrukUDn1AjE634rvCf

GpNbukV5nggkJfsEEbKrJaZkdgYcNWCAaD91Mi4MmGQi

DNfuF1L62WWyW3pNakVkyGGFzVVhj4Yr52jSmdTyeBHm

FTg1gqW7vPm4kdU1LPM7JJnizbgPdRDy2PitKw6mY27j

69ngexW9UkgRp5KFjLpaK9XNSCxUFmps6jYmqhK3q6m9

7XgBprwnRfFHd287pnNQj4AZ6Yb9QE5pJ6ChQ3zhsGpJ

4Be9CvxqHW6BYiRAxW9Q3xu1ycTMWaL5z8NX4HR3ha7t

5wPWthsivjuGi43WbTo5LdSjDTJ8pXSSHyfXWVojJjUF

27nKnCT3DD5NLJw3xbq3KDL3thx6KTe6DmrRCbi2uszE

2zc9rfAQybucpfQxdgW9otWBFnqxDoz5Fva1vD2wmaha

6HRZ8qLqmAuJ3anksqAEHLqwN7akoCU1ZjihQyoQbK64

ENRayX3P4At1eBj87TZJvZT1JVCAykwwYB5SjKT6Y2ZA

D49JMtrnenWigKNWxrACtyXfybZLjKsufXvdcD1ng8BA

DVFpA1mKBWSEuyuiWXQEdrhkyZ8mSPM2Fe7y1KhbbqxT

7HUpxcqNkUF2sGsNcTPMTWTVXok9mUiG8QcRJHM61jys

8deJ9xeUvXSJwicYptA9mHsU2rN2pDx37KWzkDkEXhU6

CeoqFgsd6sob3S1Ka7qDnXj1e76MweXx2cwUrjVqmRmv

6p8cxa2G17qaJf4LnoioyQ2vjmfaY91hc2cYghQiovXf

9NmtJ6MpuH8mzNnbQHvwaVpKbs3T51nr6VMFRTshNCMS

8r5Y6gRPBLoiT4jSGgpMwPPn4PitdSuKqDGPUx2aU5Wh

79CmfobG1sLjUZRyT9nUzfwy5xcJuWETMqTMVxFqNFwh

6AtHTM75tnpvazEwMBmd2spbxcQFTBqrNxNKUvTWxUMp

A4vCNjNJxs6UxsHT99oNkNZaoLBBYS7ZF4RwaPwZ7PKp

8yJFWmVTQq69p6VJxGwpzW7ii7c5J9GRAtHCNMMQPydj

EKWkKPRGEQzTHW32j7i4hbtzoW6s3ZGAfL7T8RkSvrhJ

FfCmMs68EYGkd3mnMf7T7uLRxEh5z1cY7TVpqawQxCEF

HbzEtahBdLk61kCP9wgqEecvP5oebFaqWHCANJupYM8Q

Ffb9SFFAFgBhiEU1XUj3r4JEz5Rva7SUfEAJWFinpUau

Eb5u4wu1bjjyeytxiuatuqNGGQLFFHjcW9rLeTiGzrMf

HS8BjVNAT4m36hLnD3GZvc74Y8iMVkx7pYhiMSDv1pWm

AVAZvHLR2PcWpDf8BXY4rVxNHYRBytycHkcB5z5QNXYm

12L63BUpPKi8ZDdD1Kj5dsyPcozjAc1vTQpVwLbBa19H

6YQSZp2mnp8BUMyMkT7MPg33YHXtnJVBPvS8wNStiF6H

9ru9BSVFSUqSRQFwdjjnkzQGf9yUdpRTjpjXPKc4BvxX

4mbEf27m7XVGSuFpiAQiRxCyX5Epu2qd2gevY2joPmQk

Cgzgw9agWXSJPHPWXFoM4W5iKeUi1dNVREfq5u86XMKx

ExCsisSuZuXmnuPMNVUiR7zTejfN3kmZdVidSExQE1vc

BrFcBzjdb6iWgnogjaDws8CxnB6ApWtacCtUtsgzEHCf

9oTsfYWULoX9V9X1xJosKquiv2RUxia6XTLZHn6aa5BN

5mta8pCqi2Zm3kFWLyMXseZtAFpHd5m2vHLh7N7hWyqX

3kebnKw7cPdSkLRfiMEALyZJGZ4wdiSRvmoN4rD1yPzV

8Ga6pH8cpxspHEeF9Q3nc6BTgHCxnMwMJvvvecErLux7

Bgm3tCLEcUQweuDcYARyoXioLCQQ3pdMYLMoneKdKP2m

9vuf62XM3nf1TqceYYfd5RUawZ1rvmVYJJRmhc5e9Lgt

HiJ46Rrgdx7hmsgaibmi9LEM7U5nsHmVD22rngwk4Udc

7UiWFNRmbwFph7247WTzfxGHqELDigqpsiysb3y3tKQf

E8hK8YbE8iBPywf4Q9TahgAT42Az2jgJL6uCHcpkP196

ARGivPcb6uapd5N3EFMAzpWDZ4wRxriMH1kkdeFHYUvS

5cN5vAuXpRfE56QJTKFxw7m3UkuVVcZMjTwGb2DQZkrG

DKwybycDSWidrHfpMjaahUsT1Yid3kig86ncXPAGe7AU

EceAXcGP69ZKCnXougTSpuHoGrLZT7e9hkxXmDPx8Qcd

GYGazbafxrSffoFF6xPUwVmqnV8CziwkD89KijUorhHi

H6azfrDwWFmQav8UMLiofEi73q6uZVv9geNqpy6VQXV9

ErG9AkyQQvf7j8rha71dtba2zxqmEfPfc819TMzAbnWk

B4M9RqyTF9jF5Zb8ZG9ZeLkvWXCeKMAq6TdE9L4NqUr2

HkiCryXaSgvYPHenUv2YYfcoYd8HcNgUUDKZdScpyP6Z

99qwBygWc1nPo9AvKgLbKDXxSkdmvy5CXTNk5CWVwzGT

5B3wpkaPZAKSZpYxmyMx5xNpeRZy67WdFNGQJToziAHP

DosUh54Scj73jcPepYmiFPAzmn3oQYyd94FZqwNmBeGC

Hp7fx5PoK6jg7brkJYiQ1fdAR73fZpwtFZCuUPTY8pVg

ArSJoBSqugxk8s1ub56YENhDvHXneCnfXJujzpugkCbT

Et45ydaesDDBN1zjXA9m7iTqgatTnxL6MrMgtWNfCbuX

8A4yM724ep3dqv9GQ7Rx3B9QcV8Tjc2H1toHAnEEmAeK

JDkA2zGDoL184ZCxkETmZMUucZve3S9iCpCygK7X383m

7dMyG1PVNpqz9FpxyGAg7kkhVQmQ9zUJHwQw6RHs4vyo

Eq38QQAc2auEEoXKx2iV7sXhGzmUaVMwf2SzHmw6cg4u

7fLjm9dYn9chMXX58Au2H1p3cwoTvh3Ri3erm1bxWXk2

HF9G11htJrFUGD5cpj8t9Fks7DZ4eJy78YqmrAZquydg

4bUb5YV7zcvabHsPd7NTpvMmbdMJkTwAtvY269PjNFh8

FvTBarKFhrnhL9Q55bSJnMmAdXisayUb5u96eLejhMF9

4ZCo5NLb1KxRymHaWh341WidGF3nYqBGanhHoq4HUGaf

CuEeVczBi4ahyc6kwDodA24CzLVbk5wWUaMnL21da8Ws

8MaVa9kdt3NW4Q5HyNAm1X5LbR8PQRVDc1W8NMVK88D5

CPydqKcEEeKTR6wt3L15G8S5Ea4bxjS2vvjiW9vw1UwK

34ZEH778zL8ctkLwxxERLX5ZnUu6MuFyX9CWrs8kucMw

6CHhn9g1F7msGdekeJTtAcC6EsaEeHBCn6xz6hKpqhsQ

CMcHRygKpNG2Jx83T1cTiqAvg55mYXv6uSwjhFzLwQFc

4q7rNU1nRUWY14vaLPpzpc2C756UQE36vaDwphBpLf2s

AgMroLKUzcvHcvS79xDJmg9ZeuvReyvNxTLunyzqh1nZ

FxqnyvqQbqvfzKZ7uNgu3aFfJzD7FPYi4J7foMwYJgMu

Gb8hF3dex5XsDYMFThaCUvLQngshMJbKuU4fc9PjiVp1

6Y9shDFcKwXh16SR1hatzSsWCBQctjY8VCGbyLWY8NFp

DKgvpfttzmJqZXdavDwTxwSVkajibjzJnN2FA99dyciK

4n1pWS2RLCg4tRoWU3RCpf5YT6tP41rBDJ25TEyi5cMK

5aR9jGBLnko6YfbnC8heWhFzwtf267StEUSobN6N8Eap

9nhwAE4d2FPeRngHSvDfz4J5JqCxhAnm6xL88wnNKAbu

CVu6fpZFZMnWvQfun1yKjje3kV8L14i5knQ9PLKyzLE

62LBFpTA85Z4hHYofP79NiSozxHQWTh88MQzmFFRbgQo

GTPPYMjBbuAp4hbQTHidEMwS3Gyy34ysR4fYLRd6aPjt

2m5498hY3hpSvm1pVyZwwyU6bpQGFGu3PADSoEoZFXQB

CySCk3xgpsnkYe1B4XByg75UiHhwM8XEv5FVDCKGGdr4

HPx7GxQjaVvox8kcBvCkUKSSh4oYm4TUeB8fXG9oGuZM

HFtjJ4Ud1bn4gv1sZznBffpRDYdLK53vCLoDhm9Ks82R

28ipXVfkdmu1PDowCHbcSfzkpH9edZmSiVoDhY5xGVfR

3ZXQXrHAqNUcFgApjS9BDBkG8J14h5rxrQNAmAwqqEGH

FTKTNFqeu9wzckDzmsaL1dTgB19BK6fE6DMTHdbETtd1

Ex5UkpSmcS3zaGyYsv1GFcuRah5U8zvPxp9NBC4KCuVB

This article is sourced from the internet: A look inside a thousand Solana “smart wallets”: Who’s making the most money? What can we learn from them?

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