トランプが暗殺され、BTCは$62,000に反発、市場は底を打ったのか？

オリジナル｜Odaily Planet Daily ( ＠OdailyChina )

著者: ウェンザー ( ウェンサー )

After the Mt.Gox creditor compensation crisis and the German governments BTC shipments, the market has rebounded sharply in the past two days. The BTC price has returned to over $62,500, with a 24-hour increase of nearly 5%; the ETH price has exceeded $3,300, with a 24-hour increase of more than 4%. This rebound may be affected by the assassination of Trump yesterday and his safe escape.

Does this round of market rebound mean that the market has bottomed out? Odaily Planet Daily will briefly analyze the market outlook in this article.

The biggest variable: Trumps assassination becomes a new hot spot for encryption

On July 14, 78-year-old Trump was stabbed at a short distance at an offline campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Although the bullet once passed by Trumps ear, fortunately only the right ear was injured; when leaving the venue under the protection of agents and security personnel, Trump also raised his arms and shouted – it is said that he shouted the slogan Fight continuously. As the news continued to spread, the crypto market responded.

Trump chanted slogans after being assassinated

The prediction market was the first to give feedback. Data from the crypto prediction market Polymarket showed that as news of Trumps good condition after the shooting broke, the platforms probability of Trump winning the presidential election has risen to 69%, setting a new record and leading by a clear margin (Bidens probability of winning is only 14%). Influenced by this news, the price of Bitcoin rose by more than 2% yesterday, reaching $59,850 – Trumps previous positive remarks and support for the cryptocurrency industry also laid the groundwork for this market reaction.

About 3 hours after the assassination, CoinGecko market showed that Trump-related Meme coins rose across the board, including:

• MAGA（TRUMP） 24時間 The increase is 30.9% and the current price is $8.22;

• MAGA Hat has increased by 30.7% in 24 hours and is currently priced at $0.0002376;

• TREMP has increased by 68% in 24 hours and is currently quoted at $0.6482;

• Super Trump rose 43.7% in 24 hours and is now quoted at $0.01241;

• BABY TRUMP has risen by 20.7% in 24 hours and is currently priced at $0.05508.

As an important influencer in the PolitiFi sector, Trumps every move also caused fluctuations in related tokens. Affected by Trumps attack, the PolitiFi token sectors trading volume in the past 24 hours exceeded US$300 million, reaching US$315,727,766. The market value of the sector rose by 14%, and it was close to US$900 million at that time.

As the two most eye-catching sectors this year, Meme Coin and PolitiFi Token also played the role of barometer in yesterdays market rebound.

After the impact was transmitted, he still insisted on attending the Bitcoin conference

The impact of Trumps assassination is still being transmitted. Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, 言った after the Trump shooting, he saw clients flocking to Bitcoin and gold. This news marks a turning point in American political norms and the emergence of greater political violence. For the market, this means safe-haven trading, but it is more inclined to non-traditional safe-haven trading.

Bill Ackman, the billionaire founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management 、発表 his official support for Trump on social media; Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla, posted a message saying that he fully supports Trump and hopes he will recover soon. He also forwarded several news related to Trumps shooting. Later, this statement was also supported by Sun Yuchen, the founder of Tron, who also said , Trump is a better choice for the cryptocurrency industry and can ensure fairer treatment.

Bitcoin Magazine CEO David Bailey said Trump still plans to attend and speak at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, Tennessee, from the 25th to the 27th of this month. According to Bailey, he spoke with Trump and the team, and he (referring to Trump) is in good spirits and is very happy to see everyone in Nashville and give a speech that the whole world can hear.

It can be seen that although many people believe that Trump expressed support for cryptocurrency for votes (such as アーサー・ヘイズ ), he chose to attend industry conferences after being assassinated. Such a clear statement is in sharp contrast to the recent US House of Representatives failed to overturn Bidens veto of SAB 121 . No wonder the market reacted very positively to this matter.

Market view at a glance: Good news comes faster than most people think

Recently, many research institutions and analysts have expressed different views on the market conditions. The following are some representative views selected by Odaily Planet Daily.

10x Research: Counterpoint or beacon?

On July 9, the well-known research institution 10x Research once again published a market opinion article (for details, see 10x Research points the way again: this time look at 60,000 first, then 50,000 ), and stated, All six applicants for the spot Ethereum ETF have submitted updated S-1 forms, which indicates that the SEC may approve the application soon. In addition, the oversold indicator suggests a short-term reversal, and a small rebound may be expected. Currently, two of the three reversal indicators have turned bullish, and the RSI index is 38%. Short sellers may need to wait until Bitcoin experiences a potential failure in breaking through $ 60,000-62,000 , which may drive prices lower.

On the 10th, Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, 言った that BTC has the potential to reach $ 60,000 , but this rise will be short-lived. From a technical analysis perspective, the $ 55,000-56,000 range is forming a base, but there will be no tactical bullish counter-trend rebound in the short term.

Subsequently, 10x made statements on the 11th, 12th and today, saying that the recent rebound in Bitcoin may be due to short covering before the release of CPI . The negative impact of the Feds interest rate cut on the crypto market in the context of economic weakness cannot be ignored . Bitcoin is expected to experience a larger-scale sell-off in the coming weeks and months .

Whether it is a market counter-indicator or a beacon of encryption, the effective index rate of 10x is still exerting its strength.

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin whales are building positions

クリプトクアント データは示している that Bitcoin whales are currently hoarding Bitcoin at the fastest rate (calculated by the 30-day MA moving average) since several local banks collapsed in the United States in April 2023. CryptoQuant analyst Minkyu Woo added: This suggests that the bottoming of Bitcoin may be about to be completed.

But CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju also gave a different view , saying that whale users only use a lot of leverage at cyclical bottoms. Ironically, when whales go long, the Bitcoin market becomes over-leveraged and the trend rebounds. It would be great if whale users were over-leveraged, but that is not the case now.

IntoTheBlock: $54,000 may be the bottom

によると データ from IntoTheBlock, Bitcoin whale addresses increased their holdings by 71,000 BTC, worth approximately $4.3 billion, when the price of the currency fell to $ 54,200 on July 5.

K33 Research: Still facing billions of dollars of selling pressure in the middle of the year

Recently, K33 研究 言った the market will have to withstand $4 billion to $7 billion in Bitcoin selling pressure by the middle of this year, which will put pressure on prices.

Matrixport: Bitcoin has become an institutional stage

Matrixports latest report points out that despite Bitcoins rebound of more than 300% since the end of 2022, retail participation remains sluggish, the market is dominated by institutional investors, and volatility has dropped to 41%, below the 5-year average (60%). As retail participation decreases, Bitcoin is increasingly dominated by institutional investors, leading to lower volatility. When Bitcoin fell below $60,000, the liquidation of retail positions in South Korea further demonstrated this significant shift from retail to institutions. At the same time, ETFs continue to maintain a steady inflow of funds. In addition, most of the declines in the past 30 days occurred in the Asian trading session, accounting for -13% of the overall decline (-15%), mainly affected by retail trading activities in South Korea.
Google Trends data shows that the trend of Bitcoin searches has dropped from 100% in 2017 to 41% in 2024, indicating that retail investors have limited interest but increased awareness. The trading volume of Korean exchanges is closely related to the annualized funding rate of Bitcoin. Korean retail investors play an important role in the altcoin market, bringing a large number of leverage opportunities.

Collective Shift: Bitcoin has reached its bottom, and a rise is in sight

Ben Simpson, founder of crypto education platform Collective Shift, said that a local bottom for Bitcoin has now formed and believes that it is now heading for an upward trend. He believes that the price of Bitcoin has been hit by a lot of forced selling recently, most of which came from the German governments nearly $3 billion sell-off and negative sentiment about the repayment of about $8.5 billion to Mt.Gox creditors. Overall, I just feel that there is a big mismatch between market sentiment and fundamentals, looking ahead, there are several key positive factors for the price of Bitcoin in the coming weeks and months, with Powell hinting that interest rate cuts may be coming soon. We are also seeing new highs in the SP 500 and strong Bitcoin ETF fund inflows.

From the above viewpoints, it is not difficult to see that perhaps this market rebound has also been beyond the expectations of many research institutions and individuals, but the unexpected good news comes much faster than expected.

Next focus: policy and news

It is worth noting that a large part of the reason for this market rebound may be due to the rise of investment risk aversion. In the current volatile world political situation, the turbulence in some regions has exacerbated investors risk aversion anxiety. Just like the market performance when the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out a few years ago, cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin and Ethereum first fell sharply, then quickly repaired the price gap and once soared.

Eugene Cheung, head of institutional business at Bybit, 言った that Bitcoin is unique because it performs well in both risk-on and risk-off market sentiments. Although we currently only have historical data in a risk-on environment, it is enough to prove that Bitcoin has performed better than any other asset in the market. As inflation declines, we believe that funds previously invested in money market funds and short-term bonds may flow back into the market, and it is difficult to deny that the price of Bitcoin will flourish in the future. In fact, as institutions such as traditional finance, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds continue to invest in cryptocurrencies, its investment value has become more obvious. Moreover, given the attractiveness of Bitcoin as an asset, the possibility of reverse price behavior or even investment bubbles in the future is higher.

Therefore, we have reason to believe that the next market trend depends mainly on two aspects: on the one hand, the market developments affected by the policies of relevant US government regulatory departments, including Ethereum spot ETF and Solana ETF; on the other hand, it is affected by market news such as Trump’s latest remarks, US presidential election campaign events, and FTX bankruptcy compensation progress.

Summary: Key market factors remain unclear

It is worth mentioning that the Mt.Gox creditor compensation incident that caused market panic has not directly affected the market price. Instead, the German governments dumping that had not attracted much attention before caused the market to suffer heavy losses, and Bitcoin fell below US$54,000.

As time goes by, the key factors that can influence market prices are still relatively limited, and the situation is not clear. Therefore, in the short term, we still cannot make a judgment that the market has fallen to the bottom or has no room to fall further. Whether cryptocurrencies can grab the attention of a wider range of people again with the help of Trumps assassination remains an unknown.

After all, according to CryptoQuant 統計 , Bitcoin traders are still facing a difficult situation, with a loss rate of only 17% , the lowest level since the FTX collapse. Perhaps the August FTX compensation plan customer vote (deadline is August 16) will determine whether the market in the next few months will be dominated by buying or selling.

This article is sourced from the internet: Trump was assassinated, BTC rebounded to $62,000, has the market bottomed out?

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