Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom

Others are panicking but I am greedy. Can I buy BTC at the bottom?

1. The German government liquidates a large amount of Bitcoin

On-chain data shows that the German government recently transferred more than $195 million worth of Bitcoin to various crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp, a move that has exacerbated market volatility. Critics believe that such a large-scale government sell-off could have a long-term negative impact on the stability of the crypto market. These Bitcoins originated from an investigation into the illegal website Movie 2 k.to, when approximately 50,000 Bitcoins were seized.

2. Panic has not occurred yet, but irrational emotions are likely to spread

Although the market implied volatility is currently at a low level, it has been on an upward trend in recent years. This shows that market sentiment is beginning to become more unstable. Although panic has not yet occurred, irrational emotions are likely to spread.

3. The opportunity to buy at the bottom comes after the real panic occurs

When there is a real panic in the market, prices tend to fall significantly below the intrinsic value of the asset. This is the best time for bargain hunters to exit, as they can buy high-value assets at very attractive prices. Investors should remain calm and wait for further developments in the market to seize the real bargain hunting opportunities.

Specific reference to several time nodes of Bitcoin:

March 2020 -33%, implied volatility 190

Bitcoin Performance: In March 2020, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of around $4,000. The crash became known as “Black Thursday,” as Bitcoin plunged more than 50% from a high of around $9,000 in just a few days.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite the panic in the market, the plunge also provided an excellent opportunity for bottom-pickers. As governments and central banks around the world launched massive economic stimulus plans, Bitcoin rebounded rapidly in the following months, recovering and breaking through the all-time high of $20,000 by the end of the year.

May 2021 -45%, implied volatility 160

Bitcoin Performance: In May 2021, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of around $30,000. The plunge was about half of Bitcoin’s value from its all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite the panic selling in the market, bottom-pickers and long-term investors quickly stepped in, believing that the long-term prospects of Bitcoin remained optimistic. Subsequently, the price of Bitcoin gradually recovered and broke through the $60,000 level again by the end of 2021.

June and November 2022 -22%, implied volatility 110

Bitcoin Performance: In November 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of approximately $16,000. The plunge reflected a significant blow to market confidence in the crypto industry, especially a crisis of confidence in some major trading platforms.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite this, some investors believe that this is a great entry point for long-term holding of Bitcoin. As the market gradually digested the negative news, the price of Bitcoin stabilized in the following months and showed some signs of rebound.

July 2024 -8%, implied volatility rises to 57.5, bottom-fishing still needs to wait

Although the current market implied volatility has increased, it has not yet reached a real panic level. Investors should pay close attention to market trends and wait for more obvious panic signals to appear before buying at the bottom.

要約する

The plunges and subsequent bottoms at the above time points provide valuable lessons for investors. Short-term market fluctuations should not affect the assessment of the long-term value of Bitcoin. After waiting for panic selling to occur, calm investors can often find undervalued assets and get rich returns when the market recovers.

There are about 24 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.08.01)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

市場テクニカルおよび感情環境分析

感情分析コンポーネント

テクニカル指標

価格動向

BTC price fell -7.55% and ETH price fell -11.32% in the past week.

上の画像は、過去 1 週間の BTC の価格チャートです。

上の画像は、過去 1 週間の ETH の価格チャートです。

表には過去 1 週間の価格変動率が表示されています。

価格ボリューム分布チャート（サポートとレジスタンス）

Over the past week, BTC and ETH continued to fall after breaking down from the dense trading area at 7.04.

上の図は、過去 1 週間の BTC の取引密度の高いエリアの分布を示しています。

上の図は、過去 1 週間の ETH 密集取引エリアの分布を示しています。

この表は、過去 1 週間の BTC と ETH の週ごとの集中取引範囲を示しています。

取引量と建玉

Over the past week, BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they fell on July 4; open interest for both BTC and ETH continued to rise.

上の図の上はBTCの価格動向、真ん中は取引量、下は未決済建玉、水色は1日平均、オレンジ色は7日平均です。Kラインの色は現在の状態を表し、緑は価格上昇が取引量によって支えられていること、赤はポジションのクローズ、黄色はゆっくりとポジションを蓄積していること、黒は混雑した状態を意味します。

上の図の上はETHの価格動向、真ん中は取引量、下は未決済建玉、水色は1日平均、オレンジ色は7日平均です。Kラインの色は現在の状態を表し、緑は価格上昇が取引量によって支えられていること、赤はポジションをクローズしていること、黄色はゆっくりとポジションを蓄積していること、黒は混雑していることを意味しています。

ヒストリカルボラティリティとインプライドボラティリティ

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when it fell to 7.4; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH rose simultaneously.

黄色の線は過去のボラティリティ、青い線はインプライド ボラティリティ、赤い点は 7 日間の平均です。

イベント駆動型

No data was released in the past week.

感情指標

モメンタムセンチメント

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.

上の図は、過去 1 週間のさまざまな資産の傾向を示しています。

貸出金利_貸出感情

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 11.4%, and short-term interest rates remained at 12.8%.

黄色の線はUSD金利の最高値、青い線は最高値の75%、赤い線は最高値の75%の7日間平均です。

この表は、過去の保有日数ごとの米ドル金利の平均リターンを示している。

資金調達率_契約レバレッジ感情

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 10.9%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a low level.

青い線はBinanceでのBTCの資金調達率、赤い線は7日間の平均です。

この表は、過去のさまざまな保有日における BTC 手数料の平均リターンを示しています。

市場相関_コンセンサスセンチメント

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week dropped to around 0.73, and the consistency between different varieties increased significantly.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

市場の幅_全体的な感情

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 3.9% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 16.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 2.3% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 2.3% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market continued to fall.

上の図は、[bnb、btc、sol、eth、1000 floki、1000 lunc、1000 pepe、1000 sats、1000 shib、100 0x ec、1inch、aave、ada、agix、ai、algo、alt、ankr、ape、apt、arb、ar、astr、atom、avax、axs、bal、band、bat、bch、bigtime、blur、cake、celo、cfx、chz、ckb、comp、crv、cvx、cyber、dash、doge、dot、dydx、egld、enj、ens、eos、etc、fet、fil、flow、ftm、fxs、gala、gmt、gmx、grt、hbar、hot、icp、 icx、idu、imx、inj、iost、iotx、jasmy、jto、jup、kava、klay、ksm、ldo、リンク、ルーム、lpt、lqty、lrc、ltc、ルナ 2、マジック、マナ、マンタ、マスク、マチック、ミーム、ミナ、mkr、ニア、ネオ、nfp、オーシャン、ワン、オント、オプ、オルディ、ペンドル、 pyth、qnt、qtum、rndr、ロビン、ローズ、ルーン、rvn、サンド、セイ、sfp、skl、snx、ssv、stg、storj、stx、sui、sushi、sxp、theta、tia、trx、t、uma、uni、vet、waves、wif、wld、woo、xai、xem、xlm、 xmr、 xrp、xtz、yfi、zec、zen、zil、zrx] 各幅指標の30日間の割合

要約する

Over the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continued to fall, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached the highest level during the decline on July 4. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has also increased simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate remains at a low level, which may reflect the continued low leverage sentiment of market participants towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies continue to fall, indicating that the overall market has maintained a weak trend over the past week.

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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom of BTC?

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