シグナルプラスボラティリティコラム（20240626）：パニックは沈静化

Yesterday (JUN 25), Bitcoin spot ETFs finally stopped outflows, and the uncertainty reflected in the options market also basically fell. Since the Mentougou Compensation Trustee announced on June 24 that repayments would be initiated in early July, the price of Bitcoin has fallen for a short time due to market panic. Alex Thorn, head of Galaxy Research, said in a post that the number of tokens ultimately allocated to individual creditors in the bankruptcy case was less than people thought, about 65,000 BTC (far lower than the 140,000 previously announced by the media), and the resulting Bitcoin selling pressure will be less than expected. This is mainly because some creditors chose debt acceptance (similar to FTXs packaged sale of debt) and received early payment, and the money eventually flowed to large institutions. In addition, the letter did not mention the specific repayment period, but it should not be too short, and these Mentougou creditors themselves are all early digital currency users who are proficient in technology. There is reason to believe that creditors clearly prefer long-term Bitcoin holders, so the maximum daily selling pressure is not exaggerated.

Source: Farside Investors; SignalPlus, ATM Vol.

Judging from the price trend of the currency yesterday, although the price rebounded to around 62,000 and the ETF temporarily ended the outflow of funds, it still cannot change the current negative sentiment and poor liquidity. Therefore, the next macro trend should be paid attention to, such as PCE this Friday, the speech of Fed Chairman Powell next Tuesday, and the hourly wage and non-agricultural data next Friday, which will affect the market repricing and capital flow.

Source: SignalPlus Economic Calendar, Important US economic events this week

Source: SignalPlus Economic Calendar, important US economic events next week

Source: Deribit (as of 26 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

In terms of trading, after the panic subsided, BTC saw bargain-hunting of call options in late June and July. In addition, a large transaction at the end of September was also particularly eye-catching. This strategy protected the remote positions by selling 190 ATM Calls worth 62,000 in exchange for 1,140 Puts worth 48,000 at almost zero cost.

データソース: Deribit、BTC取引の全体分布

データソース: Deribit、ETH取引の全体分布

出典: Deribit ブロック取引

出典: Deribit ブロック取引

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This article is sourced from the internet: SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240626): Panic subsides

関連: a16z、ブラックロック、コインベースが保有する有望なトークン10選

原著者：Atlas、Crypto KOL 原文翻訳：Felix、PANews ベンチャー投資家は毎日何百万ドルもの資金をさまざまなアルトコインに投資し、これらのアルトコインの価格を押し上げています。トップのベンチャーキャピタル機関やクジラのウォレットを追跡し、保有資産を追跡すると、超過利益が発生する可能性があります。 Crypto KOL Atlasは、100以上のファンドウォレットと収益性の高いクジラをスキャンし、ウォレットを分析し、すべてのプロジェクトをレビューし、a16z、BlackRock、Coinbaseなど、Web3で最もパフォーマンスの高いファンドを選択しました。これが、保有する最も有望な10のトークンです。 PANews 注：この記事は市場情報を提供することを目的としており、投資アドバイスを構成するものではありません。 DYOR。 Compound Labs（COMP）ユーザーがプールの1つに預けられた暗号通貨に対して利息を得ることができる貸付用のDeFiプロトコル。 時価総額：$386…