オリジナル | Odaily Planet Daily
著者 | 南志
Recently, amid the general market decline, the view that the excessive listing of VC-related tokens on exchanges has drained market liquidity has become popular. Anti-VC rhetoric has been around since the inscription era, becoming a banner and slogan during the meme boom, and this decline has intensified this contradiction to a new level.
Odaily will explain in this article whether VC coins have sucked blood from the market, whether exchanges have facilitated this process, and what users’ demands are for listing coins.
“VC-based tokens” siphoning market funds?
Regardless of the impact of whether the exchange launches VC tokens or not, since the core way for users to enter Crypto is still to purchase USDT or USDC, the total amount of stablecoins represents the total amount of on-site liquidity to a certain extent. Therefore, we simply make a preliminary comparison between the incremental amount of stablecoins and the incremental amount of VC token market value.
Where did the incremental funds go?
A year ago, USDTs circulating market value was $ 83.2 billion , and now it is $112.7 billion, an increase of $29.5 billion. USDC, on the other hand, rose from $28.4 billion to $32.6 billion , an increase of $4.2 billion. The total increase of the two in one year is $33.7 billion.
The following are ten VC tokens that have been launched in the past six months , with a total market value of 5.47 billion (all units below are in US dollars) : PYTH (1.1 billion), ENA (950 million), STRK (900 million), ZRO (670 million), ZK (600 million), ETHFI (360 million), DYM (270 million), ALT (270 million), ATH (250 million), and EZ (100 million).
In the second half of 2023, there are still giant tokens such as TIA (1.17 billion) and SEI (1.05 billion). And this circulating market value is calculated based on a drop of at least 20%-30% in recent weeks . Therefore, we can draw a preliminary conclusion that at least 50% of the incremental funds are captured by dozens of VC tokens .
Existing tokens suck blood together
ARB was launched in March 2023, with an initial circulation of 1.275 billion. Calculated at a price of 1.25 USDT, the initial circulation market value was 1.02 billion. The current circulation market value of ARB is 2.5 billion, but the token price has fallen by about 40%. If the increase in the circulation market value is understood as a net inflow of funds, but the holders are still losing money, then the funds can only flow to the unlocked part.
Exchange Role
In the previous section, we concluded that “VC tokens” do have a clear siphoning effect on funds, so did the exchanges facilitate this process?
Regarding this issue, Binance co-founder He Yi expressed his views on the X platform: The cryptocurrency industry is a free market, and the liquidity and trading volume of various trading platforms are shared. Even if Binance does not list new projects, these projects will still exist, and funds will be diverted to the entire industry. In addition to the unlocking of VC-invested projects, Meme coins, on-chain local dogs, wool-pulling, and Ponzi schemes will all be diverted. After the ETF is approved, the traditional financial market will also divert funds that flow directly to the cryptocurrency industry.
To briefly summarize, their views can be transformed into VCs can also dump tokens that are not listed on exchanges in other places and fund diversion cannot be attributed solely to VC unlocking. We have already proved who is the main player in fund diversion through data in the previous section. As for the former view, Odaily Planet Daily believes that it ignores two important factors: user attributes in different scenarios and leverage ratios in different scenarios .
In the on-chain scenario, except for users who focus on DeFi Farming or arbitrage, most traders have an aversion to high-market-value projects due to the low profit-loss ratio and the characteristics of fast shipment through AMM features. If a project has a circulation market value of hundreds of millions and the FDV is sky-high, in the eyes of on-chain users, it will be no different from the 90% SCAM dog tokens reserved, and the willingness to undertake it will be significantly reduced .
On the other hand, the exchange provides a leverage function that is far higher than that on the chain, with the maximum leverage being dozens of times, providing sufficient counterparty liquidity for shipping. The on-chain capacity is far inferior to the centralized trading market after leverage.
Therefore, the user attributes and leverage ratio in different scenarios significantly affect the willingness and ability of VCs to unlock tokens. If the projects transactions are conducted outside of CEX, the price is more likely to return to a reasonable range quickly rather than falling slowly as the tokens are unlocked. Perhaps the situation where the circulating market value rises while the token price falls will not occur. It cannot be said that centralized exchanges have no influence on the VC unlocking process.
Can exchanges do better?
For exchanges, there is no possibility that king-level projects such as ZKsync and LayerZero will not be put online as long as the project owners have not run away and the hackers have not robbed the assets. However, for other currencies, users have many demands, and exchanges still have many better options.
Give “value” projects a chance
Some valuable projects can generate extremely high profits and cash flows, such as the recent popular project Pump.fun , which has an annualized revenue of up to $219 million. Many users are looking forward to its token issuance and are willing to buy it . Or projects such as BananaGun and Whales Market, whose market capitalizations have reached $160 million and $40 million respectively.
The data of these projects are not constructed by VCs or the interaction of freeloaders, but are truly needed by users. They have grown step by step from small-market-cap projects to large-market-cap projects. In the last bull market, SOL and MATIC were able to develop after being listed on exchanges with a market value of tens of millions of dollars. However, we have not seen these projects have the same opportunities and treatment this time.
Compared with projects that are deserted after issuing coins, giving more opportunities to valuable projects is one of the fundamental demands of the majority of users.
Establish clearer standards
How to determine valuable projects? Judging by financial data is a very direct and effective method. The financial data here does not refer to indicators such as the number of addresses and the number of interactions that are easy to inflate, but more realistic data such as TVL and project revenue. Some users question that this may lead to entrepreneurship for exchanges. However, traditional markets such as US stocks will not decline due to clear standards, but will allow truly valuable projects to gain more opportunities, rather than some AI projects that are disguised, organized, or inflated.
Furthermore, it is even possible to establish delisting standards for these projects, so as to “leave liquidity to those in need” and guide the healthy development of the market.
More transparent information disclosure
There is no way to query the token operation data, how much and when it will be unlocked in the exchange. Of course, the current market generally believes that this is not the obligation of the exchange.
The power to open a long or short position lies entirely in the hands of the trader. However, if the exchange has clearly informed users that operating data is declining and large amounts of unlocking are imminent, but users still choose to take over the operation, then there is no way to pass the buck.
結論
It is certainly not a completely correct statement to blame the exchange for the market decline, but it is not the best way to think that you are completely right and educate users. As the party with the most voice and traffic in the industry, exchanges may still have many better options to guide the healthy and rapid development of the industry and projects.
This article is sourced from the internet: The crazy listing of VC-related tokens on exchanges was pointed out as the culprit for the market decline. We used data to restore the truth…
関連：アナリストはビットコインが最高値に達し、$42,000まで下落する可能性があると主張
要約 ビットコインは$63,000～$61,000の範囲をテスト、下回る恐れ。アナリストは$42,000への価格調整の可能性を予測。機関投資家の関心が高まることで価格が安定する可能性がある。主要な暗号通貨専門家による最近の分析によると、現在$63,000～$61,000の間で変動しているビットコインは、大幅な下落の可能性があるという。これらのアナリストは、市場のピークが訪れ、激しい価格調整につながる可能性があると警告している。 ビットコインが$42,000に暴落する可能性がある理由 テクニカルアナリストのDonAlt氏は、$63,000～$61,000のサポート価格帯が繰り返しテストされ、弱まる可能性があることを懸念している。 「ビットコインは、$63,000 から $61,000 の間の同じ古いレベルに戻りました。テストされる頻度が高ければ高いほど、それを下回る可能性が高くなります。この時点では、強気派でさえそれを下回るウォッシュアウトを望んでいると思います」とドンアルト氏は説明しました。彼は、強気派でさえ…
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