業界のベテラン 7 人: イーサリアム スポット ETF の承認は暗号通貨市場にどの程度の影響を与えるでしょうか?

出典: DLNews

編集：Odaily Planet Daily Wenser

Editors note: Recently, the trend of Ethereum spot ETF has reversed, which has attracted great attention from the market and regulators. Based on the optimism of the US approval of the Ethereum spot ETF, the price of Ethereum has risen sharply this week, and the current price is $3,807. Although the reasons behind the sharp change of direction are still controversial, market observers and senior cryptocurrency practitioners generally believe that the approval of regulators will have different degrees of impact on Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. It is reported that asset management company VanEck is the first brokerage firm to submit an application for Ethereum spot ETF to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The result of the 19b-4 document application will be produced around 4 am on May 24th, Beijing time. Lets take a look at the views of 7 senior industry insiders on this matter and its subsequent impact.

Digital Asset Management Company: Galaxy Digital

Mike Novogratz , CEO of Galaxy Digital, 言った in an interview with CNBC that the massive shift in Washington in the past 24 hours has overturned the Ethereum spot ETF game. He believes that if the SECs changes are politically motivated, then this will be a huge shift. If that is the case, the price (in the cryptocurrency market) will be much higher than it is now.

In addition, he also said that as Trump leads Biden in the polls and cryptocurrency super political action committees have raised more than $150 million to promote candidates who support the industry (such as in some swing states), Democrats aversion to cryptocurrencies is becoming increasingly untenable. In fact, it was Democratic Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and a small group of people who tied the Democrats to this matter.

Novogratz added: “There is no reason to turn cryptocurrency as a technology into an outright political issue.”

Ethereum Core Organization: Consensys

Joseph Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and founder of crypto infrastructure firm Consensys , said he expects “massive demand” for Ethereum, which could lead to a supply squeeze and push up its price.

Lubin told the media that institutions that have been exposed to a Bitcoin ETF will likely want to diversify into a second approved ETF. He said that there will be considerable natural, pent-up pressure to buy Ethereum through an ETF. He added that there will be less supply to meet this demand than when the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved in January.

In the case of Bitcoin, authorized participants (i.e., companies that enter into contracts to buy Bitcoin on behalf of ETFs as new shares are created each day) can simply buy idle Bitcoin on exchanges or through over-the-counter counterparties. But on-chain data shows それ more than 27% of Ethereum has been staked, meaning it is locked in contracts and earning returns for its owners.

“Most of Ethereum is either in the core protocol, DeFi systems, or DAOs (decentralized autonomous organizations),” Lubin noted . In other words, not only does Ethereum have a smaller market cap than Bitcoin — making its price more sensitive to capital inflows — but a large portion of its supply is not available for trading in spot ETFs.

Money Management Giant: Bitwise

“Cryptocurrency is going mainstream, a development that will propel cryptocurrencies to new all-time highs,” Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at asset management giant Bitwise, wrote in a blog post this week.

But Hougan said the catalyst was not sudden optimism about an Ethereum spot ETF. “A big thing happened in Washington: a bipartisan group of senators and representatives passed the first pro-cryptocurrency legislation in Washington’s history. 」 He was referring to the bill to repeal the SEC’s SAB 121 policy, which imposed strict rules on cryptocurrency custody.

“Whether or not we get approval for an Ethereum spot ETF, the latest sign of support for cryptocurrencies in Washington, D.C. is palpable,” Hougan added.

Blockchain infrastructure platform: Swarm

Timo Lehes , co-founder of blockchain infrastructure platform Swarm, believes that once the Ethereum spot ETF is approved, capital will flow into Ethereum in large quantities.

“Once you have an allocation to Bitcoin, you will also look for other things as part of your portfolio diversification,” he told the media. “Investors will naturally choose ETH as the next important position allocation for crypto assets. Although this may be dwarfed by the inflow of funds compared to the Bitcoin spot ETF launched in January this year, it is still enough to change its price trend.”

Data analysis platform: Kaiko

Adam McCarthy, an analyst at data analysis platform Kaiko, said that option traders who flocked around call options are now seeking higher returns, but investors should remain cautious. He said: The demand for Hong Kong Ethereum spot ETFs is not large, and it has experienced net outflows for several days. The lack of a pledge channel for Ethereum spot ETFs is also an important factor and may further affect demand.

He suggested keeping an eye on Grayscale’s $9 billion ETHE product, “If it starts to have a large outflow of funds, it will have a significant impact on the price of Ethereum.”

Analyst Research Company: Bernstein

According to estimates by Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, analysts at Bernstein, a $725 billion research firm, approval of a spot Ethereum ETF would send Ethereum prices soaring by about 75% to as high as $6,600.

They noted that the SEC approved a similar bitcoin spot ETF product in January, an event that sparked a roughly 75% rise in bitcoin prices to an all-time high of $73,000 three months later.

“We expect similar price action for ETH,” Chhugani and Sapra said in a report this week.

It is worth mentioning that in November 2021, Ethereum set an all-time high of US$4,878. If it can really reach US$6,600, the price of Ethereum will break its historical high again.

This article is sourced from the internet: Seven industry veterans: How much impact will the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF have on the crypto market?

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