ビットコインの将来の見通しを 3 分で簡単に見てみましょう。ボラティリティの中でビットコインはどこに向かうのでしょうか?

オリジナル｜Odあいly プラネットデイリー

著者: ウェンザー

Since Bitcoin completed its fourth halving on April 20, the price of Bitcoin has once again entered a volatile range, falling to around US$56,500 on May 1, and is currently trading around US$62,800.

The halving event and the expected rune fever did not bring new growth points to the price trend of Bitcoin. The market opinions on the subsequent rise and fall of Bitcoin have recently diverged again. Based on the previously published article BTC Completes the Fourth Halving in History, How Do Various Institutions Predict the Future Market? , Odaily Planet Daily will briefly sort out the views on Bitcoin trends for readers reference.

Positive view: Rising is still the main theme

SkyBridge Capital: BTC market value will eventually surpass gold

On April 18, SkyBridge Capital CEO Anthony Scaramucci said in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoins market value will eventually exceed the valuation of gold ($16 trillion). Bitcoin is an unprecedented high-quality asset in the past 5,000 years of human history. He said that Bitcoin still has a long way to go to catch up with golds $16 trillion market value, but he believes that as regulators recognize Bitcoin, the gap will narrow over time.

Bitwise: Firmly bullish on BTC prices

On April 23, three days after the Bitcoin halving, Bitwise Asset Management reiterated its bullish view on Bitcoin , predicting that Bitcoin will perform well in the next 12 months.
Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen said, “After the halving, what has historically happened to miners is that there has been some consolidation across the industry. Some miners are not prepared for the changes in mining economics after the halving. From a price perspective, what we usually see is that the year before the halving and the year after the halving are the best years for Bitcoin in a three- or four-year cycle, and this has happened. We definitely had a good year before the halving. We rebounded from the lows in 2022, had a great 2023, and we had a good start in 2024. I do think we will continue to test new highs in 2024 and the next year after the halving.”

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, made a bold prediction about market changes before Bitcoins fifth halving (expected to take place in April 2028). He believes that during the next halving, Bitcoins market volatility will decrease, portfolio allocation and ETF fund flows will increase, and some central banks will participate, and Bitcoins target price will be at least $250,000.

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley predicted that wealth management firms will increase their holdings of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a prediction made as Bitcoin ETFs are expected to receive a bigger boost after the halving.

Jan3 CEO: BTC price is expected to reach $1 million

On April 26, Jan3 CEO Samson Mow believed that the recent halving event coupled with the surge in demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs, when the supply shock meets the demand shock, may trigger the emergence of the Omega candle pattern, which is expected to push the Bitcoin price to the $1 million milestone.

Luxor releases Q1 report: BTC price will recover within five months

On May 2, mining pool and hashrate market Luxor released its first quarter report for 2024 , which stated that based on data showing that hashrate forward futures (essentially futures contracts, although they are traded over the counter rather than on exchanges) are at a premium, Bitcoin prices will recover within five months and have bottomed out, at least in the short term. On May 1, Bitcoin hashrate prices fell to an all-time low of $44.43/PH/day.

Bitcoin hashrate price data

TD Cowen: BTC prices may rise in May

On May 7, TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza said that Bitcoin prices may have great potential for growth in May, and Michael Saylors 会社 MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock is expected to rise sharply by the end of the year. He said that May 15 is the deadline for institutional investment managers to submit Form 13-F to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. If more companies purchase newly approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the first quarter, it will indicate that Bitcoin has gained further institutional recognition. In addition, the SECs possible rejection of the Ethereum ETF will also attract a lot of capital to Bitcoin, thereby generating incremental demand.

Analyst PlanB: BTC price will reach $500,000 in 2028

On May 7, PlanB published a post on the X platform stating that the average price of Bitcoin in the 2020-2024 halving cycle is $34,000, slightly lower than the $55,000 predicted by the S2F model in 2019, but still within the normal range, considering that the Bitcoin price was less than $4,000 when the prediction was made. The modified S2F model using the new data shows similar parameters and results: Bitcoin prices will reach $500,000 in 2024-2028 and $4 million in 2028-2032.

Pantera Capital: BTC price will reach 117,000 by 2025

On May 9, Pantera Capital released its prediction for Bitcoin price in the latest Pantera Fund V launch letter, predicting that Bitcoin price will reach $117,000 in August 2025. The letter stated that in the blockchain letter released in November 2022, it updated the analysis of the impact of BTC price since the halving in 2013, and finally predicted that BTC will rise to $117,000 in August 2025.
It also said that in previous halvings, the average rebound time before and after the halving was almost the same. There is similarity between the cycles. The rebound before the 2024 halving lasted 515 days, only one day longer than the 514 days before the 2020 halving. At the same time, based on this model, the Pantera Bitcoin Fund has almost doubled on average in 11 years.

It is worth mentioning that Pantera Capital allegedly deleted the message later. Currently, the latest content on its official website is an article about the Ton ecosystem published on May 8.

Jack Dorsey: BTC price could reach at least $1 million by 2030

On May 9, Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey said in an interview that by 2030, the price of Bitcoin could reach at least $1 million, adding that its value could grow further from then on. He pointed out that the price of Bitcoin is not actually the most interesting aspect of Bitcoin, but the collaborative nature of the ecosystem and the way it incentivizes collective efforts to enhance the network.

QCP Capital: BTC prices may be affected by political factors

On May 10, QCP Capital released an analysis that the US election will end in November this year. Historically, the market tends to be optimistic about the election. Presidential candidate Trump has been making cryptocurrency-friendly proposals, which may become a bullish factor in the cryptocurrency market. In addition, unless the Federal Reserve explicitly rules out the possibility of a rate cut or hints at a rate hike, the market seems likely to continue to digest the impact of the rate cut, and these expectations may maintain the markets bullish tone for some time.

In addition, QCP Capital analysts previously said that Bitcoin risk reversal has turned positive, with call options now more expensive than put options. This shows investors bullish sentiment as they are willing to pay higher prices for options that benefit from Bitcoins rise than for options that prevent price falls.

Japanese listed company Metaplanet: Bitcoin has been used as a strategic reserve asset

On May 13, Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, announced a strategic transformation of its financial management. Metaplanet has adopted Bitcoin as its strategic reserve asset to cope with Japans continued economic pressures, especially high government debt levels, long-term negative real interest rates, and the resulting weakness of the yen.

Metaplanets strategy explicitly prioritizes a Bitcoin-first, Bitcoin-only approach, and may use long-term yen liabilities and periodic stock issuance as strategic financial options to continuously accumulate more Bitcoin rather than retain the increasingly weak yen. This approach is designed to increase the value of each Bitcoin and consolidate shareholder value in the long run. In April, Metaplanet purchased approximately $6.25 million worth of Bitcoin.

Negative view: Decline is the hard rule

Senior trader: BTC price may fall back to 30,000 or even lower

On April 26, veteran trader Peter Brandt wrote that Bitcoin prices may have peaked in the current bull market cycle when they hit a new high of $73,835, and expected them to fall back to around $30,000 or even the lows of 2021. He attributed this expected pullback to a phenomenon known as exponential decay, which he believes will affect the recent highs in Bitcoin prices, and in the long run, such a decline may be the most favorable thing.

Blog article screenshot

Standard Chartered Bank: BTC price may fall back to 30,000

On May 1, Standard Chartered Bank said that as the price of Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 mark, it could fall further to around $50,000. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, said, The fall of Bitcoin prices below $60,000 has now reopened the path to the $50,000-$52,000 range. The driving factors appear to be a combination of cryptocurrency-specific and broader macro factors.

He also said that concerns about cryptocurrencies include the five consecutive days of outflows from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF and the poor market response to the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in Hong Kong. It is particularly important to note that as the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF continues to experience outflows, the current average purchase price of the ETF is below $58,000, which poses a risk of liquidation. More than half of the spot ETF positions are in a loss-making state, so the risk that some of these positions may be liquidated must also be considered.

10x Research: Insist on bearish judgment on BTC price after halving

10x Research, a cryptocurrency research institution, published a statement on the X platform, saying that it continues to stick to its judgment that Bitcoin will be bearish after the halving. In addition, since the halving, the inflow of stablecoins has almost zero growth, and the leverage ratio of Bitcoin futures contracts has also dropped significantly, which are all the basis for supporting its judgment. Previously, the research institution also stated that when Bitcoin undergoes a triangular consolidation, investors should pay attention to potential fake dips. Bitcoins relative strength has fallen back to a low of 40% in this adjustment, which is similar to the three adjustments of Bitcoin since the beginning of 2023.

In addition to this, in response to the DTCC’s announcement that any ETF or other investment vehicle that includes Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as an underlying investment will not be given collateral value, 10x Research said that Bitcoin is making lower price highs – a new downtrend seems to be in place, which is where the DTCC’s announcement may have an impact.

Neutral view: Volatility will be the new normal

Arthur Hayes: BTC price will fluctuate between $60,000 and $70,000 until August

On May 2, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes pointed out in his blog post that the Feds decision to reduce the pace of balance sheet reduction from $95 billion per month to $60 billion is essentially equivalent to $35 billion in new liquidity per month. At the same time, given the current fiscal forecast, the Treasury Department is expected to issue additional short-term Treasury bills with maturities of 4 weeks, 6 weeks, and 8 weeks in the coming days to ensure sufficient liquidity to meet cash needs for the week around the end of May. This move is expected to bring additional US dollar liquidity to the market.
In addition, after the bankruptcy of Republic First Bank, a small US bank, the FDIC used the insurance fund to protect the interests of all depositors in order to avoid a run on deposits. This means that the US authorities have essentially added $6.7 trillion in contingent liabilities to the banking system across the country, and these liabilities will be funded by additional money printing.
He believes that the above factors will continue to inject dollar liquidity into the market and reduce the downward pressure on cryptocurrencies. Although the market may not react immediately, it is expected that prices will bottom out, fall and start to rise slowly. He predicts that Bitcoin may have bottomed out around $58,600, and will return to above $60,000, and then consolidate in the $60,000-70,000 range before August. In addition, he also said that he would use this rebound to release USDe pledge and buy high-Beta altcoins at the bottom.

Conclusion: Long-term bullish, bull market may not be over yet

Based on the above views, we can draw the following conclusions in stages:

• In the long run, if we extend the time scale to years, both industry institutions and individuals are still bullish on the price of Bitcoin;

• In the short term, the price of Bitcoin will be affected by the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, the US election, and whether the Ethereum ETF is passed or not.

• From May to August, the price of Bitcoin may slowly bottom out amid fluctuations, and then wait for more market news and policy factors to enter the next stage of the market.

As the half-year deadline for the Bitcoin spot ETF approaches and more than a month after the Bitcoin halving event, perhaps we still need more patience and “let the bullets fly for a while.”

Odaily Planet Daily will continue to follow up and update more about the views of institutions and individuals on the future trend of Bitcoin prices.

This article is sourced from the internet: A 3-minute quick look at Bitcoin’s outlook for the future: Where will it go amid volatility?

関連: Dogwifhat (WIF) は予想よりも早く $5 に到達する可能性がある

In Brief Dogwifhat daily unique trades recovers after reaching a month-low of 32,700. Another indicator has decreased in the last few days, but the uptrend remains strong. A golden cross formed on March 25, and Dogwifhat’s price has grown by 64.88%. Dogwifhat (WIF) price is witnessing signs of early recovery, sparking curiosity about whether its upward trajectory will persist. While there has been a slight weakening in the market’s momentum, the overall upward trend remains intact. Dogwifhat Looks Promising From a 30-day low on March 23, WIF’s daily unique trades have made a significant leap to 74,500 by April 3, marking a 127.83% increase. Although this recovery is noteworthy, it is essential to recognize that these figures still fall short of the 161,000 peak observed on March 5, highlighting potential…