Matrixport Market Watch: BTC returns to $100,000, market bullish sentiment is evident

Last week, the price of BTC rose steadily, closing positively for 7 consecutive days and returning to $100,000. Since December 30, when BTC hit a low of $91,530.45, the price rebounded and rose for 7 consecutive days. As of January 6, BTC reached a high of $102,724.38, with a maximum increase of 11.35% within the week. Currently, the real-time price of BTC is $101,812.95. The price trend of ETH is roughly the same as that of BTC. It rose for 7 consecutive days and climbed to $3,744.83 on January 6, with a maximum increase of 13% within the week. The current price of ETH is $3,683.14 (the above data comes from Binance spot, January 7, 12:16).

This week, selling pressure shrank, market liquidity recovered, and BTC rebounded strongly, driving other popular currencies such as ETH and SOL higher. The bullish sentiment in the market is increasing. However, market trader Crypto Scient believes that $100,000 is still a key turning point for BTC. Unless BTC converts $99,000 into a long-term support level, the price may retest the $90,000-88,000 area.

Pasar Analisis

As of January 6, 2025, the total market value of global kriptocurrencies reached $3.65 trillion, up 6.7% from $3.42 trillion last week. Among them, the US spot BTC ETF performed well, with the total on-chain holdings exceeding 1.129 million BTC, accounting for 5.70% of the total BTC supply, worth about $106.8 billion. This week, the US spot BTC ETF had a net inflow of $240 million, and the historical cumulative net inflow has reached $38.9 billion, further consolidating its position as an important capital entrance in the market.

BTC options market bullish as traders bet on price to break $120,000

Deribit data on January 6 showed that options activity at strike prices of $110,000 and $120,000 increased significantly, reflecting traders strong expectations for further price increases. As of now, the open interest of call options with a strike price of $120,000 has reached $1.52 billion, making it the most popular contract type on the Deribit platform. With Trumps inauguration imminent, the BTC market has shown new optimism, especially in the options market.

At the same time, the Put/Call Ratio for all expiration dates has dropped to 0.24. This low ratio indicates that the trading volume of call options far exceeds that of put options, highlighting the markets confidence in the upward trend of BTC prices. In addition, the price correction at the end of December caused BTC to hit $91,000 at one point, but it has now quickly rebounded to $101,000, further consolidating the markets optimistic expectations for the upward trend.

As Trump is about to take office, the market remains focused on potential policy benefits, and the activity of the BTC options market may become a leading indicator of future price changes.

Miner selling pressure and exchange inflows both declined, supply tightening supports BTC mid-term bullish

On January 6, Bitfinex reported that BTCs liquidity inventory ratio has dropped sharply from 41 months in October 2024 to 6.6 months, and the exchange inventory has continued to flow out, while only 200,000 BTC flowed into the exchange this week, and the floating profit rate of short-term holders has dropped to 12%. The increase in the stock of stablecoins also shows that the market has sufficient capital reserves and a strong wait-and-see sentiment. During the same period, the inflow of BTC exchanges and the outflow of miners continued to decline, further easing the markets selling pressure and strengthening the expectation of BTCs medium-term rise.

At the same time, the outflow from miners to exchanges has also decreased significantly, indicating that the selling pressure from miners has slowed down. CryptoQuant data shows that on November 11, 2024, miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, a high point, and by early January 2025, this number had dropped to between 2,000 and 5,000 per day. The change in miners behavior reflects that they are more inclined to hold positions in response to price increases.

The dual effects of reduced supply and reduced selling pressure lay the foundation for BTCs rise in the medium term. As the market chip structure stabilizes, BTCs upward trend is expected to continue further.

Institutional and corporate holdings are accelerating, BTC is expected to exceed $200,000 in 2025

On December 31, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicted that the price of BTC will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, with continued increases in holdings by institutions and companies being the core driving force. Since the beginning of 2024, institutions have purchased 683,000 BTC through channels such as spot BTC ETFs and MicroStrategy.

At the corporate level, BTC holdings increase plan has become a trend. According to Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley, Since last Monday, 11 listed companies have purchased more BTC. 2025 may be an important node for more companies to join the BTC standard. Japanese listed company Metaplanet plans to increase its BTC holdings to 10,000 in 2025 to promote global adoption.

The dual effects of accelerated institutional buying and easing supply-side pressure will lay a solid foundation for BTCs medium- to long-term rise in 2025.

Trump-themed Memecoins led the gains, and sentiment in the altcoin sector rebounded

On January 7, the U.S. Congress officially confirmed Trumps election as president. As he is about to take office, the expectation of his crypto-friendly policies has driven the rise of related tokens. Trump concept memecoin TRUMP has risen for three consecutive days since January 4, with a cumulative increase of more than 80%; MAGA, TRUMPCOIN and others have risen by nearly 100%, but then fell back. However, the LINK, AAVE and other tokens held by the family project World Liberty Financial have not shown a significant rise.

Market sentiment turned optimistic, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index rose to 78, entering the Extreme Greed range. BTC returned above $100,000, driving a general market rally, but the altcoin sector had mixed gains and losses. SOL once again broke through 220 USDT, AVAX rose 6%, and SUI fell back to 5 USDT after hitting a new high.

The ETH ecosystem sector experienced a short-term correction, with LDO falling by about 3% and ENA falling by nearly 10%. Despite positive market expectations, volatility remains the focus of recent attention, and investors need to be wary of short-term correction risks.

Market Hotspots

Fed reserves fall below $3 trillion, lowest since 2020

On January 3, according to data from the Federal Reserve, U.S. banking system reserves fell to about $2.89 trillion in the week ending January 1, falling below the $3 trillion mark, the lowest level since October 2020 and the largest single-week drop in two and a half years, a decrease of about $326 billion.

Year-end regulatory requirements prompted banks to cut balance sheet activity, with funds flowing from banks to the Feds overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) facility. At the same time, the Fed continued to remove excess cash from the financial system through the quantitative tightening (QT) program, further tightening liquidity. Investors are advised to pay close attention to changes in the Feds policies and their potential impact on the banking system.

BTC mining difficulty hits new high, miners’ income reaches $1.44 billion

The difficulty and computing power of BTC network mining continue to rise. On December 30, 2024, the difficulty of BTC mining increased by 1.16% to 109.78 T, setting a new record high. The average computing power of the entire network reached 804.04 EH/s, and it is expected that the next difficulty adjustment will increase to 111.20 T. Despite the improvement of mining machine efficiency, the rapid growth of global computing power and rising energy costs put pressure on mining profitability.

In a high-difficulty environment, miners income remains strong, with cumulative income reaching $1.44 billion in 2024. According to a report by large mining company MARA, it earned $8.7 million in interest income in the first three quarters by optimizing resource utilization and lending strategies, while the power-on computing power reached 53 EH/s. As competition intensifies, miners need to continue to optimize their strategies to maintain profitability in a fierce market.

Penafian: Konten di atas bukan merupakan saran investasi, tawaran untuk menjual, atau ajakan untuk membeli kepada penduduk Daerah Administratif Khusus Hong Kong, Amerika Serikat, Singapura, dan negara atau wilayah lain tempat penawaran atau ajakan tersebut mungkin dilarang oleh hukum. Perdagangan aset digital mungkin sangat berisiko dan tidak stabil. Keputusan investasi harus dibuat setelah mempertimbangkan dengan saksama keadaan pribadi dan konsultasi dengan profesional keuangan. Matrixport tidak bertanggung jawab atas keputusan investasi apa pun berdasarkan informasi yang diberikan dalam konten ini.

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