HTX Growth Academy | Laporan Riset Makro Pasar Kripto: Siklus Pasar Bull Baru Telah Tiba

1. Perkenalan

Recently, the Bitcoin and kriptocurrency markets have ushered in a new round of explosion, and one of the important driving factors is the so-called Trump deal effect. Bitcoin broke through the key historical resistance level in a short period of time, which not only shows the strong rebound of the crypto market, but also shows the continued favor of digital assets by global investors in an uncertain macro environment. This report will deeply analyze the direct and indirect impact of the Trump deal on the cryptocurrency market, and explore the changes in market sentiment, price fluctuations and possible future trends it brings. We will comprehensively evaluate the future trend of Bitcoin and other crypto assets and potential market risks based on macroeconomic data, policy background, market sentiment and other factors.

2. Macroeconomic Background Analysis: Multiple Driving Forces of the Crypto Bull Pasar

2.1 Global economic growth slowdown and the safe-haven nature of crypto assets

Global economic growth has continued to slow down since 2023, especially after the Feds consecutive interest rate hikes, the liquidity of the US dollar has been restricted, and the overall liquidity of capital markets has declined. Global investors are more inclined to allocate risk-resistant assets against the backdrop of slowing economic growth, and Bitcoin has gradually been regarded as a kind of digital gold due to its decentralized and anti-inflation characteristics. In 2024, the crypto market is entering a new bull market cycle, which is closely related to the increase in global demand for safe-haven assets.

This safe-haven property of cryptocurrencies stems from their low correlation with traditional markets. Especially after Trump became active again on the political stage, his public statements in support of cryptocurrencies brought confidence to the market, prompting investors to include Bitcoin in their portfolios as a safe-haven asset in an uncertain economic environment, thereby driving up Bitcoin prices.

2.2 Fed policy changes and currency depreciation

The Feds interest rate policy has a profound impact on the crypto market. After the pandemic, the Fed raised interest rates several times to control inflation. However, as the pace of interest rate hikes slowed in 2024, market expectations for interest rate cuts increased. The volatility of the US dollar index and the depreciation trend of the US dollar have led investors to turn to cryptocurrencies to avoid the long-term depreciation risk of the US dollar.

In this case, the scarcity and borderless nature of Bitcoin attracted global capital inflows. Especially under the influence of Trump, the demand for Bitcoin in the US market has seen a new round of growth. The linkage between the US economy and the depreciation of the US dollar has prompted investors from other countries to flock to the Bitcoin market to avoid the risk of depreciation of their own currencies. In addition, the Federal Reserve may continue to have an accommodative monetary policy in the future, which will continue to benefit the crypto market.

2.3 The long-term threat of inflation and the anti-inflation properties of cryptocurrencies

As the global economy recovers, inflation continues to rise. The fixed supply, scarcity and decentralized nature of cryptocurrencies make them increasingly attractive for investment in the context of rising inflation. In particular, Bitcoin, with its constant total amount, becomes an insurance against inflation, providing a unique value-preserving function compared to traditional assets.

Trumps public support has further strengthened this attribute. With the increasing political uncertainty and high inflationary pressure in the United States, Bitcoins anti-inflation characteristics have led more institutional and individual investors to regard it as a long-term investment option. As the global demand for anti-inflation assets increases, Bitcoin is expected to become an important hedging tool in the new bull market cycle.

3. The direct impact of Trump’s transactions on the crypto market

3.1 Interpretation and Origin of the Concept of “Trump Deal”

The term Trump Trade first appeared during Trumps presidency. His policies and words and deeds frequently caused fluctuations in the capital market, causing the sentiment of the financial market to change rapidly. Trumps economic policies, attitude towards the Federal Reserve, and public stance on digital assets have all affected investors risk appetite. Currently, Trumps remarks in support of the cryptocurrency field have reactivated this effect, and investors generally believe that his words and deeds have played an important role in boosting the price of Bitcoin.

In the new round of market fluctuations, the Trump trade effect is prominent, and the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Trumps support for crypto assets has not only brought huge market attention, but also attracted more traditional investors and new investors to enter the market. Under Trumps influence, price fluctuations in the crypto market have become more frequent, which has also brought greater investment opportunities.

3.2 Changes in market sentiment: from waiting to chasing the rise

The change in market sentiment brought about by Trumps remarks is particularly obvious. Since his first statement, the price of Bitcoin has quickly broken through important resistance levels in the short term, causing many investors who were on the sidelines to enter the market at an accelerated pace. The market sentiment has shifted from waiting to chasing the rise, and FOMO (fear of missing out) has driven the price of Bitcoin up.

At the same time, the cryptocurrency market sentiment index shows that as Trumps related remarks increase, the markets optimism has climbed to a year-on-year high. Investors not only see Bitcoin as a short-term profit tool, but also as a long-term means of hedging against future policy uncertainties and protecting personal assets. This change in sentiment has triggered capital flows, further pushing up the price of Bitcoin.

3.3 Far-reaching impact on the crypto ecosystem

Trumps support for cryptocurrency has not only affected the price of Bitcoin, but also driven the development of the entire crypto ecosystem. Especially in emerging fields such as NFT, DeFi and Web3.0, Trumps remarks have injected new impetus into investors confidence. These innovative fields have attracted a lot of funds and developers attention due to their decentralized and risk-resistant properties, driving the activity of the entire market. Especially in the field of NFT, as the Trump family launched cryptocurrency-based projects, NFT jual beli volume has increased significantly. The expansion of the NFT market has benefited mainstream crypto assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, while enhancing the liquidity of the entire crypto ecosystem and helping the long-term development of the market.

4. Analysis of different stages of the new bull market cycle

4.1 Early stage of bull market: institutional entry and price drive

In the early stage of the bull market, the influx of institutional investors was the main driving force for the market to rise. Stimulated by Trumps relevant remarks, many institutional investors increased their Bitcoin holdings, which greatly improved the liquidity of the market. According to statistics, the proportion of funds held by institutional investors has increased significantly, indicating that Bitcoin has gradually entered the investment portfolios of traditional investors. Compared with the past, institutional holdings in this round of bull market are more stable, especially driven by the entry of large investment funds, hedge funds and pension funds, the price fluctuations of Bitcoin have stabilized. The entry of institutions not only increases the depth of the market, but also reduces the volatility of Bitcoin and increases the maturity of the market.

4.2 Mid-term bull market: FOMO effect and retail investors’ entry

The mid-term of a bull market is usually accompanied by an amplification of the FOMO effect. Driven by institutional investors, retail investors attention has risen sharply. Especially in the context of Trumps remarks frequently making headlines, many retail investors have quickly joined the market in order to share the dividends of the bull market. The changes in the market sentiment index clearly reflect this phenomenon. The market activity has increased significantly, and the trading volume has reached a record high. The discussion volume of cryptocurrencies on various social media has continued to rise, especially after Bitcoin broke through the psychological resistance level one after another, the FOMO sentiment has driven the entry of retail investors. Against the backdrop of high market sentiment, prices have soared rapidly.

4.3 Late bull market: risk control and rational investment

In the later stage of the bull market, market volatility may increase and risk appetite may decrease. At this time, some investors who entered the market at high levels may gradually reduce their positions, causing market sentiment to fluctuate. At the same time, government regulatory policies and market adjustment pressures may also affect prices. Although Trump supports cryptocurrencies, investors need to remain cautious to prevent high risks.

During this phase, the market tends to fluctuate, and investors should strengthen risk control. The reduction of holdings by institutional investors in the late bull market will also trigger price fluctuations. During the market turn, investors should adopt a prudent strategy to reduce risks.

V. In-depth analysis of policy risks

Trumps support for cryptocurrencies has brought positive signals to the market, but the legal status and compliance of cryptocurrencies still face risks.

5.1 Regulatory developments in the United States

Despite Trumps support for cryptocurrencies, regulators such as the U.S. Securities and Menukarkan Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) remain cautious about crypto assets. The regulatory measures of these agencies have a profound impact on the price fluctuations in the crypto market. In particular, in terms of the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the SECs attitude will directly affect market liquidity and prices. If the attitude of regulators towards crypto assets changes, it may affect market sentiment and lead to price adjustments.

5.2 Global Policy Risks

In addition to the United States, regulatory policies in other countries also have a significant impact on the market. For example, China and the European Union have a stricter attitude towards cryptocurrencies. Changes in policies in various countries may lead to capital flows, increasing market volatility. Under the influence of Trump, the United States may relax its policies, but the positions of other countries also need to be closely monitored.

VI. Conclusion: The prospects of a new bull market and investors’ response strategies

In 2024, against the backdrop of heightened global economic uncertainty and a reshuffle of the U.S. political landscape, the “Trump Trade” effect has injected new momentum into the Bitcoin market. The breakthrough in Bitcoin prices and the start of a bull market cycle have brought lucrative opportunities to the market, but also increased risks. Macroeconomic factors, the Fed’s policy dynamics, inflationary conditions, and global regulatory policies are all key variables that will affect the future market.

A detailed analysis of the current market shows that although Bitcoins anti-inflation and risk-averse properties have been fully utilized in this bull market, the driving forces and challenges of this bull market are more complex and diverse than ever before. Both the entry of institutions and the FOMO sentiment of retail investors may fuel the markets rise and amplify the potential risk of market bubbles. Therefore, when investing in Bitcoin and other crypto assets, investors need to adopt a cautious strategy and pay close attention to market signals to ensure returns while effectively controlling risks.

7. Future investment advice: diversification strategy and risk management

Based on the macro analysis of this bull market, the following are some strategic suggestions for investors:

7.1 Long-term investment strategy: stay rational and hold on patiently

For investors who are optimistic about the value of Bitcoin in the long term, accumulating positions in batches in the early and mid-term of the bull market is a more stable choice. Especially with the potential promotion of Trumps cryptocurrency support policy, the favorable policies in the future will further enhance the market appeal of Bitcoin. Long-term investors should remain patient when the market adjusts, and take the medium and long term as the investment cycle to avoid frequent transactions due to short-term fluctuations.

7.2 Medium-term strategy: seize the opportunity of the market and set stop-profit and stop-loss

In the middle of a bull market, when price fluctuations occur frequently, investors can adopt a swing trading strategy. Take advantage of the markets ups and downs to buy and sell in order to achieve periodic gains. However, be wary of the risks brought about by drastic market fluctuations. It is recommended to set clear stop-profit and stop-loss positions in each transaction to prevent potential losses caused by changes in market sentiment.

7.3 Risk management: pay attention to policy changes and adjust positions

Policy uncertainty has always been a source of risk in the cryptocurrency market. Although Trumps attitude may be good for the crypto market, there is still a risk of changes in future regulatory policies, especially from the review of the SEC and other international regulators. Therefore, investors are advised to always pay attention to policy changes, maintain appropriate cash positions and flexibly adjust positions to cope with sudden policy risks.

7.4 Portfolio Diversification: Balancing Traditional Assets and Crypto Assets

In this round of bull market, although Bitcoins characteristics as a safe-haven asset are gradually recognized, its high volatility cannot be ignored. Investors should avoid investing all their funds in the cryptocurrency market, but instead balance crypto assets and traditional assets through asset diversification to improve the risk resistance of the overall investment portfolio. Risk-resistant assets such as bonds and gold in the traditional market can be used as hedging tools to reduce the overall risk brought by the volatility of crypto assets.

8. Summary and Outlook: The Bright Spots and Concerns of the New Bull Market

Overall, in 2024, the Bitcoin market ushered in a new round of bull market outbreak driven by Trumps support and changes in the global economic environment. Bitcoins positioning as digital gold has become increasingly established, attracting the participation of a large number of institutional and individual investors, and the depth and breadth of the crypto market have gradually expanded. In the new round of bull market cycle, the market has shown unprecedented vitality. It is expected that under the environment of favorable policies and continued tightening of the global economy, the bull market may continue for a long time.

However, market prosperity often means increased risks. Investors should be aware of the high volatility of crypto assets and policy uncertainty, and should not blindly chase the market upswing. In the future, investors need to find a balance between market sentiment and the macro environment, and achieve long-term stable returns through rational layout and prudent operations.

The advent of the new bull market has brought unprecedented opportunities to the cryptocurrency market, but successful investment is inseparable from a deep understanding of market trends and prudent risk management. In a market environment where opportunities and challenges coexist, only a steady and cautious investment strategy can grasp the real long-term value in the ever-changing crypto market.

This article is sourced from the internet: HTX Growth Academy | Crypto Market Macro Research Report: New Bull Market Cycle Arrives

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