Matrixport Investment Research: Amerika Serikat telah memasuki jalur kebijakan pelonggaran moneter, dan volatilitas pasar

At 2:00 am on September 19, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, and the target range of the federal funds rate was reduced from 5.25%-5.50% to 4.75%-5.0%, and the US monetary policy easing cycle officially began. This rate cut is the first rate cut since March 2020. The market generally believes that the start of the rate cut cycle is good for risky assets. After the rate cut information was announced, crypto assets, gold and US stocks, led by BTC, all rose to varying degrees.

The Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 bp this year, and the market remains concerned about a recession

The Feds dot plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice more this year, totaling 50 bp, four times in 2025, totaling 100 bp, and two times in 2026, totaling 50 bp, with an overall rate cut of 250 bp and an end point of 2.75-3%. The rate cut exceeded the expectations of many Wall Street investment banks. Historical data shows that the first rate cut of 50 bp only occurred in market emergencies, such as the technology bubble in January 2001, the financial crisis in September 2007, and the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.

Macro data expectations adjusted, the Feds confidence in curbing inflation increased

Public information shows that the Fed lowered its GDP growth forecast for this year from 2.1% to 2.0%, and significantly raised its unemployment forecast from 4.0% to 4.4%. It also lowered its PCE inflation forecast from 2.6 to 2.3%. The Feds adjustment of data expectations shows that it has increased its confidence in curbing inflation, and the labor market is also a focus of the Fed. Overall, the first large-scale interest rate cut and the more hawkish rate cut rhythm have brought an overall short-term boost to the market.

The market is polarized in its response to the Feds rate cuts. It is still unknown whether the economy will have a soft landing or will amplify inflation and geopolitical risks. However, in the short term, market volatility and uncertainty will increase, and market trends will become more complex. Investors are advised to pay close attention to leading economic indicators such as employment data to control risks.

Penafian: Pasar ini berisiko dan investasi harus dilakukan dengan hati-hati. Artikel ini bukan merupakan saran investasi. Perdagangan aset digital bisa sangat berisiko dan tidak stabil. Keputusan investasi harus dibuat setelah mempertimbangkan dengan saksama keadaan pribadi dan berkonsultasi dengan profesional keuangan. Matrixport tidak bertanggung jawab atas keputusan investasi apa pun berdasarkan informasi yang diberikan dalam konten ini.

This article is sourced from the internet: Matrixport Investment Research: The United States has entered the monetary easing policy channel, and market volatility may further increase

Related: What is the MetaGame of Altcoins in this Cycle?

Original author: Sleeping in the rain The ones that impressed me the most were Inscription and Memecoin. The emergence of hype like these two is driven by demand (even if this demand is just pseudo-demand or unsustainable demand) or Ponzi (high returns and high capital efficiency, derived from greed). A commonplace topic: The hype about Alt-Layer 1 in the last cycle came from users’ demand for high-performance, low-cost public chains. The emergence of DeFi Summer (Ponzi) has driven users’ demand for Ethereum block space, while Ethereum’s low performance and high fees (demand created) have pushed a large number of users to its competitors. Demand and Ponzi interact with each other and are subject to cycles. For example, the hype of DeFi and Alt-Layer 1 is the result of the interaction…