HTX Growth Academy: Apa dampak pemotongan suku bunga sebesar 50 basis poin oleh Fed?

1. Perkenalan

On September 19, 2024, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to 4.75%-5.00%, the first rate cut since March 2020. The magnitude of this rate cut is relatively rare. Historically, the Federal Reserve usually makes a 25 basis point adjustment, but in a specific economic context, a 50 basis point rate cut shows the Federal Reserves concerns about the current economic situation. The global financial market reacted strongly to this, with varying degrees of volatility in the stock market, bond market, precious metals market and cryptocurrency market. As an emerging financial asset class, the cryptocurrency market has gradually been accepted by the mainstream financial market in recent years, especially with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the gradual participation of institutional investors, its influence and scale have continued to expand. Against the backdrop of a global economic slowdown, rising inflationary pressures and increasing geopolitical uncertainties, the impact of the Feds rate cut decision on the crypto market is particularly noteworthy.

2. Background of interest rate cuts and the Fed’s policy shift

1. The Fed’s interest rate hike cycle and interest rate cut background

Since March 2022, in response to rising inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve has launched a 17-month interest rate hike cycle, with a cumulative rate hike of 525 basis points. The last rate hike in this cycle brought the federal funds rate to 5.25%-5.50%, the highest level in 23 years. However, with the slowdown of US economic growth, the weakening labor market, and the gradual control of inflation, the Federal Reserve took a rare 50 basis point rate cut in September 2024, opening a cycle of monetary policy easing.

This move shows that the Fed has begun to shift its policy focus from controlling inflation to stimulating economic growth and stabilizing the labor market. At the press conference announcing the rate cut, Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed will continue to pay attention to economic data and flexibly adjust the policy pace according to the situation. This policy shift has brought new uncertainties to the market, but it also indicates that the cost of funds will decrease and liquidity will increase, which may bring positive impetus to the crypto market in the short term.

2. The history and impact of the Fed’s interest rate cuts

Historically, the Feds rate cuts of more than 50 basis points usually occurred when the economy or the market faced an emergency, such as the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2001, the financial crisis in 2007, and the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020. Therefore, the scale of this rate cut exceeded the expectations of many investment banks, and the market generally interpreted it as the Feds increasing concerns about the economic outlook. In fact, rate cuts usually help reduce borrowing costs, boost consumption and investment, and increase market liquidity. However, rate cuts may also bring the risk of rising inflation, which will have a complex impact on the market in the medium and long term. From the perspective of monetary policy, rate cuts directly reduce the attractiveness of traditional low-risk assets such as bonds, and drive funds to high-risk assets such as stocks, real estate, and cryptocurrencies. Therefore, rate cuts usually bring short-term upward momentum to risky assets.

3. The short-term impact of the Fed’s interest rate cut on the crypto market

1. Increased market liquidity drives up crypto asset prices

Easing monetary policy means increased market liquidity. As borrowing costs fall, funds will flow more easily into the capital market, especially those asset classes with higher risks but greater potential returns, such as cryptocurrencies. Historically, whenever the Federal Reserve adopts an easing policy, the crypto market tends to show strong upward momentum. After the announcement of the rate cut, the price of Bitcoin rose rapidly, breaking through the key support level of $60,000 and breaking through $62,000 again, while ETH broke through $2,400. This shows that the markets expectations of increased liquidity have driven investors demand for Bitcoin, especially in the context of increased expectations of a depreciation of the US dollar. Investors regard digital currencies such as Bitcoin as an effective tool to hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. Not only Bitcoin, but other altcoins have also benefited from increased market liquidity. In the trading session after the announcement of the rate cut, ZetaChain rose 20.6%, Saga and Nervos Network rose 13.7% and 11% respectively. Such small-cap crypto assets usually have higher price volatility. In a market environment with ample liquidity, investors are often more willing to take risks in order to obtain higher returns.

2. Investors’ risk appetite rises

Interest rate cuts not only mean an increase in liquidity, but also increase investors risk appetite. In a high-interest rate environment, investors usually seek stable fixed-income products, while when interest rates fall, risky assets (such as stocks and cryptocurrencies) usually become the target of capital pursuit. For the crypto market, this inflow of funds not only brings about price increases, but may also drive the market to further expand. In the short term, the increase in investors risk appetite will support the prices of Bitcoin and other mainstream cryptocurrencies. Especially with the participation of institutional investors, the markets price trend is more stable, attracting more funds to flow in. However, this increase in risk appetite may have negative effects when the economic outlook deteriorates. Once the markets expectations of a recession intensify, investors may quickly withdraw funds from high-risk assets, leading to sharp fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, although the interest rate cut boosts investor confidence in the short term, the markets uncertainty about the future economic environment will still put pressure on price trends.

4. The long-term impact of the Fed’s interest rate cut on the crypto market

1. Liquidity cycle and growth opportunities in the crypto market

The Feds easing policy usually means an increase in liquidity, which supports high-risk assets. As institutional investors interest in cryptocurrencies continues to grow, loose monetary policies have further promoted the expansion of the crypto market. As the flagship asset of the crypto market, Bitcoin has gradually been regarded as a kind of digital gold with the potential to fight inflation. Therefore, in the future easing cycle, Bitcoin and other major crypto assets are expected to continue to benefit from increased liquidity. Especially after the launch of Bitcoin ETF, institutional investors can allocate crypto assets through more convenient channels. Loose monetary policies mean a decline in returns on traditional financial instruments, which will drive more institutional funds to digital currencies such as Bitcoin, further promoting the growth of the market.

However, the growth of the crypto market does not only rely on liquidity, but also on technological innovation and changes in the regulatory environment. The development of smart contract platforms such as Ethereum has provided the basis for the explosion of decentralized finance (DeFi) and NFT markets. With the increase in liquidity, innovative financial products such as lending and liquidity mining in the DeFi ecosystem will further develop, providing impetus for the expansion of the crypto market.

2. The impact of inflationary pressure and policy changes on the market

While rate cuts will help boost market liquidity in the short term, they may also exacerbate inflationary pressures. Since 2022, inflation in the United States has been high, and although the Feds rate hike policy has alleviated this problem to a certain extent, the increase in consumption and borrowing brought about by rate cuts may cause inflation to rise again. In the long run, if inflation continues to rise, the Fed may have to raise interest rates again, which will have a negative impact on the crypto market. Rate hikes mean a reduction in liquidity, and investors will withdraw funds from high-risk assets and return to low-risk fixed income products or US dollar-based assets, leading to capital outflows and price declines in the crypto market.

In addition, rising inflation will also affect consumers purchasing power and investors risk appetite. If the Fed has to adopt a tougher monetary policy to deal with inflation, the crypto market may face greater downward pressure. Therefore, future policy adjustments will have a profound impact on the long-term direction of the crypto market.

3. Economic recession risk and crypto market response

Although the Feds rate cut policy has stimulated the market in the short term, the crypto market may not be able to maintain its current upward momentum if the risk of a recession intensifies. Historically, whenever the economy falls into recession, investors tend to withdraw funds from high-risk assets and turn to safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold. Currently, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. Although it has the potential to fight inflation, investors interest in high-volatility assets may decline during a recession, leading to a price correction. For example, under the impact of the epidemic in early 2020, Bitcoin once fell below $4,000, but with the Feds easing policy and the recovery of market sentiment, Bitcoin ushered in a strong rebound in the second half of 2020.

Therefore, the long-term trend of the crypto market will depend on the health of the global economy. Once the economic outlook deteriorates, investors may reassess the risks of cryptocurrencies and choose to withdraw funds to more stable traditional assets.

5. The impact of the Fed’s rate cut on the cryptocurrency market

1. Bitcoin: The rise of a safe-haven asset

As the leader of the crypto market, Bitcoins price performance is often a leading indicator of overall market sentiment. As the Feds rate cuts have led to rising expectations of a depreciation of the dollar, investors interest in Bitcoin has also increased. Bitcoin is widely regarded as digital gold, and its appeal as an inflation hedge has increased during periods of loose monetary policy. With the influx of institutional funds, especially the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, institutional investors can more easily allocate Bitcoin, which will drive its price to continue to rise in the future. However, Bitcoins price trend is still affected by the macroeconomic environment. If the global economy falls into recession, investors demand for Bitcoin may decrease, leading to increased price volatility.

2. Altcoins: Opportunities and risks of high volatility

Against the backdrop of rising Bitcoin prices, altcoins tend to show greater price volatility. The increased market liquidity brought about by the Feds rate cut has driven more funds to riskier altcoins. Compared with Bitcoin, altcoins have a smaller market capitalization, so they are more sensitive to changes in market liquidity. For example, altcoins such as ZetaChain, Saga, and Nervos Network saw significant price increases in the short term after the news of the rate cut was released. This reflects that investors are more willing to seek high-yield opportunities when risk appetite rises. However, the volatility of such assets also means that their prices are more susceptible to changes in market sentiment. Once the market environment changes or liquidity decreases, the price of altcoins may quickly pull back.

Investors need to be cautious in dealing with market fluctuations when participating in the altcoin market. In the event of a deteriorating economic situation or increasing inflationary pressure, market sentiment may quickly shift from high-risk assets to safe-haven assets, which will put pressure on the prices of altcoins. Therefore, although the interest rate cut has driven the rise of altcoins in the short term, in the long run, investors still need to pay attention to changes in the global economic and financial environment.

3. Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and Stablecoins: New Growth Drivers

Decentralized finance (DeFi) is a major innovation in the crypto market, providing decentralized lending, trading, and asset management services. As the Feds interest rate cuts increase market liquidity, the DeFi ecosystem will benefit from lower borrowing costs and higher market participation. In the traditional financial system, falling interest rates usually drive investors and businesses to increase lending activities. Similarly, in the DeFi field, investors may take advantage of lower borrowing costs for leverage operations, further driving the growth of the DeFi market. In addition, activities such as liquidity mining and yield farming on DeFi platforms may attract more funds due to increased market liquidity, injecting new vitality into the entire DeFi ecosystem.

As a special asset class in the crypto market, the main function of stablecoins is to provide a stable asset pegged to a fiat currency (such as the US dollar). When market volatility intensifies, stablecoins often become a safe-haven option for investors. After the Fed cuts interest rates, investors may use stablecoins for arbitrage transactions or as a market hedging tool. Therefore, the demand for stablecoins may continue to grow against the backdrop of increased liquidity and rising market volatility.

4. Institutional investors’ participation accelerates

With the Feds rate cuts and increased global liquidity, institutional investors interest in the cryptocurrency market is also rising. Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, institutional investors have been able to allocate crypto assets in a more convenient way, further promoting the development of the market. The influx of institutional funds not only brings momentum for price increases, but also improves the maturity and stability of the market. Although the crypto market is still known for its high volatility, as more and more institutional investors participate in it, the volatility of the market is expected to gradually decrease. In the long run, this will help increase the mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrencies and promote further expansion of the market.

VI. The impact of geopolitical and global economic factors

In addition to the Federal Reserves monetary policy, the global economic environment and geopolitical risks also have a significant impact on the crypto market. Currently, the global economic slowdown, escalating trade tensions, and regional conflicts have brought uncertainty to the global market. As a decentralized and borderless asset, cryptocurrency is often seen as a safe haven when geopolitical risks increase. Especially in countries with strict capital controls, investors may transfer funds to crypto assets such as Bitcoin to circumvent local currency depreciation and capital restrictions.

However, the weakness of the global economy may also have a negative impact on the crypto market. If the risk of recession increases and investors risk appetite declines, funds will flow to traditional safe-haven assets such as the US dollar and gold, leading to capital outflows and price declines in cryptocurrencies. Therefore, although cryptocurrencies can resist geopolitical risks to a certain extent, the health of the global economy is still an important factor affecting market trends.

7. Future Outlook: Opportunities and Challenges in the Crypto Pasar

1. Opportunities in the crypto market

The increase in liquidity brought about by the Feds rate cut provides short-term growth opportunities for the crypto market, especially against the backdrop of accelerated inflows of institutional funds, the price of crypto assets is expected to continue to rise. Bitcoins positioning as digital gold will be further consolidated, attracting more long-term investors. Innovative areas such as DeFi and NFT will also benefit from increased market liquidity and technological advances. With the influx of more users and capital, these emerging markets will provide impetus for the further expansion of the crypto industry. In addition, with the increasing popularity of stablecoins and decentralized lending platforms, the cryptocurrency ecosystem will continue to improve.

2. Challenges of the Crypto Market

Although the Feds rate cut is beneficial to the crypto market in the short term, the market still faces multiple challenges in the long run. First, inflationary pressure and the Feds policy reversals may lead to uncertainty in market sentiment. If the Fed raises interest rates again in the future, the market may face the risk of reduced liquidity, leading to sharp price fluctuations. Second, the deterioration of the global economic outlook may put downward pressure on the crypto market. As a highly volatile asset, cryptocurrencies are susceptible to changes in investors risk preferences during a recession. In addition, geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the regulatory environment will also have an important impact on market trends.

3. Regulatory risks and compliance

As the crypto market continues to develop, global regulators are paying more attention to crypto assets. Governments are gradually developing regulatory frameworks related to cryptocurrencies to prevent money laundering, tax evasion and other illegal activities. Although regulation can bring a certain degree of transparency and legitimacy to the market, uncertain regulatory policies may also inhibit market innovation and development. The compliance of cryptocurrencies will be key to future market development. Enterprises and project parties need to ensure that their platforms meet the regulatory requirements of various countries, especially in terms of user privacy, fund security and anti-money laundering compliance issues. As the regulatory environment becomes increasingly stringent, compliant projects and platforms in the market will be more competitive.

8. Kesimpulan

The Feds 50 basis point rate cut marks a major shift in US monetary policy, and global financial markets have experienced significant volatility as a result. For the crypto market, the rate cut has brought short-term growth opportunities, especially for areas such as Bitcoin, altcoins, DeFi and stablecoins, which benefit from increased liquidity and improved risk appetite. However, the market is also facing challenges from multiple uncertainties such as inflation, global economic slowdown and regulatory policies. In the future, the crypto market will continue to be affected by macroeconomic, monetary policy and geopolitical risks. Although market sentiment is positive in the short term, in the long run, investors need to pay close attention to global economic trends, policy changes and the evolution of the regulatory environment to cope with potential market volatility.

Overall, the Feds interest rate cut policy provides new opportunities for the crypto market, but investors should be wary of potential risks while enjoying the dividends of market growth. The growth path of the crypto market is still full of challenges, but driven by increased liquidity, technological innovation and institutional participation, its future is still full of possibilities.

This article is sourced from the internet: HTX Growth Academy: What impact will the Fed’s 50 basis point interest rate cut have?

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