Laporan Riset Sentimen Pasar Kripto (26.07.2024-08.02): Bitcoin Turun karena The Fed Terus Mengarahkan

Bitcoin falls as Fed remains on hold

Since inflation has fallen less quickly than expected, the Federal Reserve has kept its interest rate target range between 5.25% and 5.5% since the end of July last year, the highest level in 23 years. After the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin fell to as low as $62,300 and then rebounded.

As the third quarter draws to a close, most market participants expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. If the fight against inflation continues to make good progress, a rate cut could be announced as early as this years September meeting. This could be a positive factor for risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Historically, a lower interest rate environment is good for cryptocurrencies as investors tend to seek higher-yielding assets. Despite the uncertain economic outlook, the prospect of looser monetary policy has boosted positive sentiment toward Bitcoin. However, investors need to be mindful of the risk of price volatility in the short term.

There are about 47 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (September 19, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Analisis lingkungan teknis dan sentimen pasar

Komponen Analisis Sentimen

Indikator teknis

Tren harga

BTC price rose -0.68% and ETH price rose 0.88% over the past week.

Gambar di atas adalah grafik harga BTC dalam seminggu terakhir.

Gambar di atas adalah grafik harga ETH dalam seminggu terakhir.

Tabel tersebut menunjukkan tingkat perubahan harga selama seminggu terakhir.

pctChange1Day3Day5Day7Daybtc_pctChange1.12% -2.14% -3.74% -0.68% eth_pctChange-0.91% -3.44% -1.4% 0.88%

Grafik Distribusi Volume Harga (Support dan Resistance)

In the past week, BTC and ETH broke down from the concentrated trading area and then rebounded.

Gambar di atas menunjukkan sebaran area perdagangan BTC yang padat dalam seminggu terakhir.

Gambar di atas menunjukkan sebaran area perdagangan ETH yang padat dalam seminggu terakhir.

Tabel tersebut menunjukkan rentang perdagangan intensif mingguan BTC dan ETH dalam seminggu terakhir.

Volume dan Minat Terbuka

In the past week, the trading volumes of both BTC and ETH increased after the August 1 interest rate meeting; the open interest of both BTC and ETH increased slightly.

Gambar bagian atas menunjukkan tren harga BTC, bagian tengah menunjukkan volume perdagangan, bagian bawah menunjukkan open interest, warna biru muda adalah rata-rata 1 hari, dan oranye adalah rata-rata 7 hari. Warna garis K mewakili keadaan saat ini, hijau berarti kenaikan harga didukung oleh volume perdagangan, merah berarti penutupan posisi, kuning berarti akumulasi posisi secara perlahan, dan hitam berarti keadaan ramai.

Gambar di atas menunjukkan tren harga ETH, di tengah adalah volume perdagangan, di bawah adalah open interest, biru muda adalah rata-rata 1 hari, dan oranye adalah rata-rata 7 hari. Warna garis K mewakili keadaan saat ini, hijau berarti kenaikan harga didukung oleh volume perdagangan, merah berarti penutupan posisi, kuning berarti akumulasi posisi secara perlahan, dan hitam berarti ramai.

Volatilitas Historis vs. Volatilitas Tersirat

Historical volatility for BTC and ETH was highest this past week at 8.1; implied volatility for both BTC and ETH fell.

Garis kuning adalah volatilitas historis, garis biru adalah volatilitas tersirat, dan titik merah adalah rata-rata 7 hari.

Didorong oleh peristiwa

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this past week, and after the interest rate meeting, Bitcoin fell to a low of 62,300.

Emotional indicators

Sentimen Momentum

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.

Gambar di atas menunjukkan tren berbagai aset dalam seminggu terakhir.

Suku Bunga Pinjaman_Sentimen Pinjaman

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 8.3%, and short-term interest rates rose to 12%.

Garis kuning adalah harga tertinggi suku bunga USD, garis biru adalah 75% dari harga tertinggi, dan garis merah adalah rata-rata 7 hari dari 75% dari harga tertinggi.

Tabel ini menunjukkan rata-rata pengembalian suku bunga USD pada hari-hari penyimpanan yang berbeda di masa lalu

Tingkat Pendanaan_Sentimen Leverage Kontrak

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 7.9%, and contract leverage sentiment is gradually recovering.

Garis biru adalah tingkat pendanaan BTC di Binance, dan garis merah adalah rata-rata 7 hari

Tabel tersebut menunjukkan rata-rata pengembalian biaya BTC untuk hari penyimpanan yang berbeda di masa lalu.

Korelasi Pasar_Sentimen Konsensus

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.5, and the consistency between different varieties fell from a high level.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Luas Pasar_Sentimen Keseluruhan

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 42.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 16.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 20% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 35% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market maintained a downward trend.

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Meringkaskan

In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fell after the interest rate meeting, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies increased after the interest rate meeting on August 1. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased slightly. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has decreased simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate has rebounded slightly from a low level, which may reflect the gradual recovery of market participants leverage sentiment towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies have retreated, indicating that the overall market has continued to fall in the past week.

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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.26-08.02): Bitcoin Falls as Fed Keeps Steering

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