Laporan Riset Sentimen Pasar Crypto (19-07-26-07-2024): Harga Ethereum turun lebih dari 7,5%, dan modal ETHE keluar

Ethereum price drops more than 7.5%, ETHE outflow surges

Data from Coinglass

ETHE is Grayscales Ethereum trust ETF with a fee of 2.5%. The Ethereum spot ETF had an overall net outflow of $133 million on the second day of listing. The culprit was Grayscales ETHE, which caused the sharp drop in Ethereum this week, with ETH falling to as low as around $3,100.

For most investors, the decision comes down to fees. Eight of the nine ETFs have management fees between 0.15% and 0.25%. Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH), a new fund created specifically for listing as an ETF, has a management fee of just 0.15%. These fees will be waived completely for the first six months after listing or until the funds assets under management (AUM) reaches $2 billion.

There are about 5 days until the next Fed meeting (2024.08.01)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Analisis lingkungan teknis dan sentimen pasar

Komponen Analisis Sentimen

Indikator teknis

Tren harga

BTC price rose 2.83% in the past week, while ETH price fell -7.33%.

Gambar di atas adalah grafik harga BTC dalam seminggu terakhir.

Gambar di atas adalah grafik harga ETH dalam seminggu terakhir.

Tabel tersebut menunjukkan tingkat perubahan harga selama seminggu terakhir.

Grafik Distribusi Volume Harga (Support dan Resistance)

In the past week, BTC rose and then fell back into the concentrated trading area, while ETH fell and formed a new concentrated trading area at a low level.

Gambar di atas menunjukkan sebaran area perdagangan BTC yang padat dalam seminggu terakhir.

Gambar di atas menunjukkan sebaran area perdagangan ETH yang padat dalam seminggu terakhir.

Tabel tersebut menunjukkan rentang perdagangan intensif mingguan BTC dan ETH dalam seminggu terakhir.

Volume dan Minat Terbuka

The biggest volume this past week was when BTC rose on July 19 and ETH fell on July 25; open interest rose for both BTC and ETH.

Gambar bagian atas menunjukkan tren harga BTC, bagian tengah menunjukkan volume perdagangan, bagian bawah menunjukkan open interest, warna biru muda adalah rata-rata 1 hari, dan oranye adalah rata-rata 7 hari. Warna garis K mewakili keadaan saat ini, hijau berarti kenaikan harga didukung oleh volume perdagangan, merah berarti penutupan posisi, kuning berarti akumulasi posisi secara perlahan, dan hitam berarti keadaan ramai.

Gambar di atas menunjukkan tren harga ETH, di tengah adalah volume perdagangan, di bawah adalah open interest, biru muda adalah rata-rata 1 hari, dan oranye adalah rata-rata 7 hari. Warna garis K mewakili keadaan saat ini, hijau berarti kenaikan harga didukung oleh volume perdagangan, merah berarti penutupan posisi, kuning berarti akumulasi posisi secara perlahan, dan hitam berarti ramai.

Volatilitas Historis vs. Volatilitas Tersirat

Historical volatility was highest this past week with BTC at 7.23 and ETH at 7.25; implied volatility was up with BTC and down with ETH.

Garis kuning adalah volatilitas historis, garis biru adalah volatilitas tersirat, dan titik merah adalah rata-rata 7 hari.

Didorong oleh peristiwa

There were no major data releases in the past week.

Indikator Sentimen

Sentimen Momentum

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/CSI 300, Bitcoin was the strongest, while Hang Seng Index performed the worst.

Gambar di atas menunjukkan tren berbagai aset dalam seminggu terakhir.

Suku Bunga Pinjaman_Sentimen Pinjaman

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 9.2%, and short-term interest rates fell to 6%.

Garis kuning adalah harga tertinggi suku bunga USD, garis biru adalah 75% dari harga tertinggi, dan garis merah adalah rata-rata 7 hari dari 75% dari harga tertinggi.

Tabel ini menunjukkan rata-rata pengembalian suku bunga USD pada hari-hari penyimpanan yang berbeda di masa lalu

Tingkat Pendanaan_Sentimen Leverage Kontrak

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 5.3%, and contract leverage sentiment rebounded from a low level.

Garis biru adalah tingkat pendanaan BTC di Binance, dan garis merah adalah rata-rata 7 hari

Tabel tersebut menunjukkan rata-rata pengembalian biaya BTC untuk hari penyimpanan yang berbeda di masa lalu.

Korelasi Pasar_Sentimen Konsensus

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.75, and the consistency between different varieties fell sharply and then rebounded.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Luas Pasar_Sentimen Keseluruhan

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 30% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 10% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 15% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 20% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market returned to a downward trend.

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Meringkaskan

In the past week, the market performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum was different. Bitcoin fluctuated widely within the range, with the trading volume reaching the highest point on July 19 when it rose, the open interest volume increased, the implied volatility increased, and the funding rate rebounded, indicating that market sentiment has warmed up. Ethereum, on the other hand, fell in price after the shock, mainly affected by the outflow of ETHE funds, with the trading volume reaching the highest point on July 25 when it fell, the open interest volume increased, and the implied volatility decreased. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies have returned to a downward trend, indicating that the entire market has been dominated by declines in the past week.

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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.19-07.26): Ethereum price fell by more than 7.5%, and ETHE capital outflow surged

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