SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240528): Recalling Mentougou

U.S. stocks and bonds were closed yesterday due to the Memorial Day holiday, but there will be important data (GDP and the PCE inflation data favored by the Federal Reserve) released later this week, so it is considered a short but busy week.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

In terms of digital currency, Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 mark again during yesterdays U.S. trading session after trading sideways for nearly a week. The markets bullish enthusiasm seems to have finally been impressed by the continued inflow of ETFs. Considering that the U.S. stock market is closed for holidays, the analysis platform Santiment characterized this wave of rise as an encouraging sign because it proves that BTC can perform well even when the correlation with TradFis rise and fall is not so close.

Source: TradingView; Farside Investors

But things did not go smoothly. Just after BTC broke through 70,000, the market received news that Mt.Goxs cold wallet transferred 12.24 kBTC to an unmarked address, worth about $840 million. In 2014, Mt.Goxs creditors were hit hard when the exchange collapsed. The exchange has been trying to recover funds for repayment over the past decade. Todays transfer on the BTC chain was seen by some traders as a potential catalyst for selling pressure and bearishness. The BTC price then fell rapidly from the intraday peak to below 68,000.

Source: Twitter

In terms of options, the markets attention has returned to BTC. The roller coaster market in the past 24 hours and the markets concerns about potential selling pressure have raised the implied volatility. The IV curve has flattened and risen overall, and the volatility smile has quickly tilted towards put options after the price fell. From the perspective of transactions, the largest BTC transaction was also a group of Short Risky (450 BTC per leg) in June, selling 75,000-Call and buying 65,000-Put as protection, with a net premium of about 2B TC.

Source: Deribit (as of 28 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Sumber: SignalPlus

Sumber: SignalPlus

Sumber Data: Deribit, distribusi keseluruhan transaksi ETH

Sumber Data: Deribit, distribusi transaksi BTC secara keseluruhan

Sumber: Perdagangan Blok Deribit

Sumber: Perdagangan Blok Deribit

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