Interpretation of macroeconomic policies in 2025: What is the impact on the crypto market?

Original title: Crypto is Macro Again

Original article by: Marco Manoppo, Investor at Primitive Ventures

Original translation: Ashley, BlockBeats

Editors note: The author analyzes how the क्रिप्टो market will be affected by macroeconomic and policy changes, especially Trumps tax increase policy and inflationary pressure. As the Trump administration strengthens its regulatory support for cryptocurrencies, including the CFTCs focus on fraud prevention and the FDICs adjustment of banking policies, it may promote the stability of the crypto market. In the coming months, the stablecoin bill and macroeconomic factors may dominate the market trend.

मूल सामग्री निम्नलिखित है (पढ़ने और समझने में आसानी के लिए मूल सामग्री को पुनर्गठित किया गया है):

Cryptocurrency markets are no longer an isolated asset class. They are once again deeply intertwined with macroeconomic forces and regulatory changes. In the next 3-6 months, it will be regulation and macroeconomics that will dominate the cryptocurrency market, rather than microeconomics or industry developments within the industry.

Cryptocurrencies have been steadily falling since the launch of the $TRUMP token, which was released on January 17, 2025, just days before Trump’s second inauguration, sparked speculation but failed to push the market higher on a sustained basis.

Meanwhile, macroeconomic forces are also at work.

On February 1, 2025, President Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada, a 10% tariff on Canadian energy exports, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. The impact on risk assets was immediate.

Since the introduction of these tariffs, the overall cryptocurrency market cap has fallen by about 13%, from $3.8 trillion to $3.3 trillion. Bitcoin itself hit a three-week low of $91K before rebounding to $96K, while Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies have seen more dramatic declines, with declines of up to 25%.

Why are crypto markets reacting to tariffs?

Trade war fears and risk aversion

The threat of a global trade war has investors fleeing risky assets. Traditional financial (TradFi) investors view Bitcoin as a high-risk asset and are turning to safer assets such as gold, bonds, and the U.S. dollar. A typical risk-averse trade is taking place, and cryptocurrencies are included in this category.

Inflation and interest rates are back in focus

Tariffs raise the cost of imported goods, which could lead to higher inflation. If inflation remains high, the Federal Reserve could delay or cancel expected rate cuts, reducing liquidity in financial markets. Since Bitcoin does not generate yield, higher interest rates make it less attractive compared to U.S. Treasuries or even cash deposits.

This dynamic is in stark contrast to the low-rate, liquidity-driven environment of 2020-2021, when cryptocurrencies flourished. As a result, macro trends are once again the primary driver of cryptocurrency performance.

The role of regulation and traditional finance

While tariffs and inflation dominate the short-term outlook, regulatory changes are equally critical. Global regulators are increasing their scrutiny of crypto markets, and the U.S. Securities and अदला-बदली Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have recently taken some industry-friendly steps, suggesting a more constructive regulatory stance in the U.S.

At the same time, traditional financial institutions (TradFi) have accelerated their adoption of cryptocurrencies, recognizing its potential as a diversified asset class.

• Matt Britzman of Hargreaves Lansdown noted that trade war fears sparked by tariffs usually fade quickly, but in the meantime investors hedge with gold, Treasuries and the dollar.

• Likewise, Joel Kruger of LMAX Group noted that the market is not afraid of extreme tariff measures but is adapting to Trumps negotiating tactics.

This means that while there is more volatility in the short term, long-term investors may continue to accumulate Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as prices decline.

What might happen in the next 3-6 months?

Cryptocurrencies are once again part of the macroeconomy. Cryptocurrencies are no longer independent of the fluctuations of traditional markets. Economic policies, central bank decisions, and geopolitical events all directly affect the performance of digital assets.

With inflation, interest rates, and trade policy dominating the dynamics of financial markets, digital assets are no longer isolated from the broader economic environment. Institutional money now views major cryptocurrencies as part of the traditional financial (TradFi) space, meaning that regulatory changes and global economic trends will shape the trajectory of cryptocurrencies.

Over the next 3-6 months, expect markets to continue to face volatility as they digest tariff updates, Fed policy decisions, and upcoming regulatory measures.

The question is not whether cryptocurrency will decouple from the macroeconomy, but how it responds to this new reality.

All that really matters right now are macro events and what Trump says on regulation.

बाज़ारs are reacting dramatically to trade policy, interest rate expectations, and regulatory decisions that could shape the trajectory of the industry in the coming months.

A review of key regulatory and macro developments driving the cryptocurrency industry

Cryptocurrency has become a national priority in the United States

President Trump signed an executive order making cryptocurrency a national priority and established the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets to create a regulatory framework and assess the nation’s digital asset reserves.

The order protects fair banking access for self-custodial and crypto businesses and explicitly prohibits the launch of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC). It also revokes digital asset policies during the Biden administration, marking a shift in U.S. regulatory attitudes toward supporting cryptocurrencies. The working group is led by David Sacks (crypto tsar).

Impact on Cryptocurrencies:

• Rejecting the launch of a CBDC and supporting private dollar-backed stablecoins could benefit stablecoin issuers while limiting government-controlled alternatives.

• Industry expectations for strategic Bitcoin reserves have yet to materialize, but assessments of digital asset reserves suggest that future government accumulation is likely.

Regulatory teams supporting cryptocurrencies

Trump has almost completed the formation of his cryptocurrency regulatory team, nominating Jonathan Gould (OCC), Jonathan McKernan (CFPB), and a16z’s Brian Quintenz (CFTC).

These candidates all have experience in cryptocurrency or financial regulation, indicating their support for a market-based stance.

While the Senate confirmation process may take time, the Trump administration is developing a potentially more open regulatory framework for digital assets.

Impact on Cryptocurrencies:

• Gould may push for banking charters that support cryptocurrencies, while the CFTC under Quintenz may support blockchain innovation.

• This marks a shift in the U.S. regulatory attitude, especially in the regulation of stablecoins and crypto banking, and clearer and more favorable regulatory policies may emerge in the future.

19 US states and endowments considering Bitcoin investments

A growing number of 19 U.S. states are considering legislation to invest public funds in Bitcoin. Some proposals would allocate up to 10% of state funds to cryptocurrencies with larger market capitalizations.

Wisconsin and Michigan have already included Bitcoin in public employee retirement portfolios, and 23 other states are actively debating similar proposals.

Meanwhile, U.S. endowments are also increasing their exposure to cryptocurrencies as digital asset prices surge to new highs.

Impact on Cryptocurrencies:

• State-level Bitcoin investments could increase legitimacy, demand, and price stability, drive institutional adoption, and accelerate regulatory clarity. If passed, these laws would further the integration of cryptocurrencies into public finances, but legislative approval remains a key hurdle.

टोकनization Pilot Program

Acting CFTC Chair Caroline Pham is moving forward with a tokenization pilot program that would use stablecoins as collateral.

She is organizing a CEO summit for leaders of Coinbase, Ripple, Circle, and other major crypto companies to discuss the plan.

Impact on Cryptocurrencies:

• If this pilot program is implemented, it will help legitimize stablecoins in traditional finance, enhance liquidity in derivatives markets, and promote the widespread use of tokenized assets.

• By integrating blockchain-based collateral into regulated markets, the initiative could set a precedent for future pro-cryptocurrency policy under the CFTC’s evolving leadership.

CFTC now focuses on preventing fraud

CFTC Acting Chairwoman Caroline Pham also announced a major reorganization of the agency’s enforcement division, shifting the focus from “regulation through enforcement” to “fraud prevention.”

The reorganization reduced the number of task forces and consolidated enforcement efforts into two groups: the Complex Fraud Task Force and the Retail Fraud and General Enforcement Task Force.

Impact on Cryptocurrencies:

• By more explicitly focusing on preventing fraud rather than a broad crackdown, legitimate cryptocurrency companies could face fewer regulatory hurdles, thereby fostering greater institutional participation and improving market stability.

Cryptocurrency “re-banking”

Acting FDIC Chairman Travis Hill announced a major shift in the agency’s cryptocurrency regulation, pledging to reevaluate past guidance that discouraged banks from working with crypto companies.

As part of this reform, the FDIC released internal documents showing that regulators had pressured banks to cut ties with cryptocurrencies.

Impact on Cryptocurrencies:

• If the FDIC follows through on its pro-cryptocurrency reforms, banks may feel more confident working with digital asset companies, improving access to financial services for the industry.

• This shift could improve liquidity, encourage institutional adoption, and lay the foundation for more balanced regulatory policies.

• However, Senate hearings and ongoing political debate will determine the extent and pace of change.

The SEC’s New Cryptocurrency Task Force

SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce has outlined 10 priorities for the agency’s newly formed Cryptocurrency Task Force, which aims to provide regulatory clarity to the crypto industry.

Key points include defining the difference between securities and commodities, clarifying the rules for crypto lending and staking, and creating a more workable registration process.

Impact on Cryptocurrencies:

• Clearer classification rules and registration paths are likely to encourage more institutions to adopt and comply with the law, while the agency’s focus on fraud prevention is intended to build market confidence.

• However, due to ongoing litigation and policy review, true regulatory clarity may take some time to emerge.

U.S. stablecoin rules take shape

The United States is moving toward stablecoin regulation, with two competing bills currently in place: the STABLE Act in the House of Representatives and the GENIUS Act in the Senate, which propose different frameworks but agree on strict compliance measures.

Both bills support private, dollar-backed stablecoins and ban central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

The main differences include:

• Regulatory oversight (GENIUS allows states to regulate issuers until market cap reaches $10 billion; STABLE allows an opt-out of federal regulation if state-level rules meet criteria)

• Reserve requirements (STABLE allows the use of Treasury bonds, bank deposits, and central bank reserves, while GENIUS also includes money market funds and reverse repo)

• Consumer protection (GENIUS focuses on transparency and enforcement, while STABLE requires one-to-one reserves and prohibits algorithmic stablecoins)

Impact on Cryptocurrencies:

• Tighter regulation could challenge Tether’s dominance, as both bills would require monthly audits, asset segregation, and strict reporting, potentially forcing exchanges to delist non-compliant stablecoins, similar to the impact of the EU’s MiCA.

• These laws will pave the way for the legalization of stablecoins, attracting institutional adoption while creating barriers for less transparent issuers. If passed, they will establish clear मार्गदर्शकlines for stablecoin issuers, ensuring market stability and compliance.

अंतिम विचार

By now, it is clear that the cryptocurrency market is deeply embedded in the macro market. Currently, macroeconomic conditions and policies will drive price fluctuations in the coming quarters, rather than innovation within the industry.

While I mentioned earlier that Trump’s pro-crypto actions, such as executive orders, pardoning Ross Ulbricht, and launching meme coins, have fueled market optimism, many believe that these factors are mostly short-term optimization and speculation driven – and what is needed are long-term fundamental catalysts to properly attract new capital inflows from traditional finance (TradFi).

Regardless of what Trump says, the U.S. government’s policies will affect traditional financial players’ sentiment toward cryptocurrencies, thereby affecting broader market liquidity.

मूल लिंक

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