Matrixport Investment Research: Make good use of options for BTC risk management

The changes in global liquidity are obvious, and BTC may enter a consolidation phase. There is evidence that liquidity trends usually affect BTC price movements about 13 weeks in advance.

The hawkish tone of the FOMC meeting may suppress BTCs upward trend

Since the December 2024 FOMC meeting, inflows into BTC ETFs have leveled off, remaining at a record peak of $35.9 billion. However, as the Fed becomes increasingly hawkish, risk capital may hesitate to invest further in these ETFs until monetary policy becomes clearer. Although the market initially shrugged off the hawkish tone of the December FOMC meeting, analysis of BTCs historical performance suggests that such hawkish rhetoric may limit BTCs gains until the Fed signals a shift to a more dovish stance.

While many attribute the 2024 BTC price rally to the launch of the ETF, it may be more closely tied to the Fed鈥檚 policy changes. The 2024 rally began with a more dovish tone from Fed Chairman Powell in late January 2024. This coincided with BTC鈥檚 upward momentum, but at the March FOMC meeting, Powell became less clear about when the Fed would begin cutting rates, and this uncertainty may have led to the subsequent six months of sideways trading, making the next move heavily dependent on the Fed鈥檚 turn to dovishness in September.

Although Trumps policy stance is conducive to the rise of क्रिप्टोcurrencies, it cannot be ruled out that the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve may limit the upside. The current downside risks in the market seem limited, but risk management in advance can avoid risks.

Implied volatility is low, and the proper use of options can maintain market exposure and manage risk

Currently, with implied volatility at low levels, options present an attractive opportunity. Call options are relatively cheap, allowing traders to take advantage of potential upside. Alternatively, traders can use put options to protect fat BTC profits at a low cost. Given the current uncertain outlook, utilizing options is a prudent way for traders to manage risk while maintaining exposure to market volatility.

उपरोक्त कुछ विचार मैट्रिक्स ऑन टार्गेट से लिए गए हैं। हमसे संपर्क करें मैट्रिक्स ऑन टार्गेट की पूरी रिपोर्ट प्राप्त करने के लिए।

अस्वीकरण: बाजार जोखिम भरा है और निवेश में सावधानी बरतनी चाहिए। यह लेख निवेश सलाह नहीं है। डिजिटल एसेट ट्रेडिंग बेहद जोखिम भरा और अस्थिर हो सकता है। निवेश के फैसले व्यक्तिगत परिस्थितियों पर सावधानीपूर्वक विचार करने और वित्तीय पेशेवरों से परामर्श करने के बाद किए जाने चाहिए। मैट्रिक्सपोर्ट इस सामग्री में दी गई जानकारी के आधार पर किसी भी निवेश निर्णय के लिए जिम्मेदार नहीं है।

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Original author: BitMEX Welcome back to our weekly analysis of options investment strategies. Today, we will share a unique trading opportunity that stems from a significant difference in Bitcoin prediction probabilities between the BitMEX options market and prediction platform Polymarket. The last out-of-the-money Bitcoin call option with a strike price of $120,000 (expiring on December 27) on BitMEX shows that the risk-neutral probability of Bitcoin reaching this price is about 8%. However, participants on the Polymarket platform have priced the probability of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 before December 31 at about 17%. This significant difference may bring arbitrage opportunities for savvy traders. In this article, we take a closer look at this price mismatch, detail how the 8% probability is calculated, propose a trading strategy to exploit this discrepancy, and highlight…