साइकिल कैपिटल: एक सप्ताह की ऑन-चेन डेटा ट्रैकिंग (20240729)

Fear and Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index is now 74, which is in a greedy position, and the market investment sentiment is high. In the decline in June, the Fear and Greed Index fell sharply, falling below 30 in early July, the lowest value in more than a year, and then rebounded significantly.

CME BTC contract positions

CMEs positions have been growing continuously since July 5, and began to reduce on July 23. After Trumps speech at the Bitcoin conference on July 28, the positions increased again.

The corresponding logical change is that after July 5, funds were bullish on the market. On July 23, near the pressure level and the Bitcoin conference, some selling funds reduced their positions. After Trumps speech, BTC fell, but quickly rebounded, indicating that the decline caused by selling funds was limited, so some funds were bullish on the future market and re-entered the market.

CME BTC Leveraged Funds Short Position

Leveraged fund short positions increased by 103 contracts and 515 BTC last week (2024/07/16 – 2024/07/23). Usually, when this indicator is upward, it also means that the spot side of arbitrage funds is also increasing their positions, and when the indicator drops to the turning point, it indicates that there will be an upward trend after the short positions are closed.

Bitfinex BTC Margin Long Position

After the long positions on Bitfinex reached a low point on March 16 (corresponding to the high point of the market), they continued to accumulate long positions. So far, the positions are still at a high level, but are no longer growing.

Stablecoin Supply Oscillator (SSRO)

When SSRO hit the bottom on July 9, it was already lower than the low point in August-September last year, indicating that the participation of funds in the market was rapidly declining. But this also formed a turning point and rebounded from the low point. This relatively low position is a relatively good rebound condition for the cottage industry.

Changes in the proportion of long-term and short-term BTC holders

The blue part shows the change in the proportion of BTC held by long-term holders. According to the previous two bull markets in 2017 and 2021, there will be two decreases in the proportion of BTC held by long-term holders, and the second decrease will be greater than the first.

From December 2023 to April 2024, during the main uptrend of BTC, long-term BTC holders continued to sell. Since April, BTC has entered a wide range of fluctuations, and long-term holders have stopped selling and tend to continue holding BTC.

BTC long-term holders have unrealized net gains and losses

In the two cycles of 2017 and 2021, the unrealized net profit and loss of BTC long-term holders entered the blue area and exceeded 0.75. Since this round of market, the indicator has not entered the blue area and is still running in the green area. It is believed that the indicator should enter the blue area and run for a period of time to form the top of this round of market.

BTC short-term holders have unrealized net gains and losses

In a bull market, when the unrealized net profit and loss of BTC short-term holders is close to 0 or below 0, a relative stage bottom will be formed. It was below 0 twice in 2023 and twice in 2024. From the end of June to the beginning of July 2024, the unrealized net profit and loss of short-term holders was below 0, and it recovered to above 0 on July 15. Referring to the trend in September 2023, the main rise may be formed in the future.

This article is sourced from the internet: Cycle Capital: One-week on-chain data tracking (20240729)

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