BTC Volatility Weekly Review (December 23-30)

Key indicators: (December 23, 4pm -> December 30, 4pm Hong Kong time)

• BTC/USD fell 1.9% ($95,300 -> $93,500), ETH/USD rose 3.0% ($3,300 -> $3,400)

• The price action over the past week was quite volatile, but it ultimately held between $92,500 and $99,000, resulting in a reduction in realized volatility (at least the volatility between settlement points). We speculate that this trend will continue in the next few trading days, but there is a possibility of volatility at the end of the year settlement. At the same time, this long round of price adjustment may end before the end of the year and prepare for the next round of increases.

• The current support level is as low as $92,000, and we expect to find good support at the $90,000 level, with the next support level falling all the way to $85,000. If the $85,000 support falls, we will see a more substantial decline, but we think this is very unlikely. Coming to the upper price, if the coin price successfully recaptures the psychological point of $100,000, it will open up the opportunity to test higher and reach our target price level of $11,500-12,000 (expected in the early to mid-first quarter).

Marché Thème

• In a very quiet holiday week, prices took a break from a more hawkish Fed meeting, with US stocks taking a break from the downside and the dollar trading higher against other fiat currencies.

• Momentum in the cryptocurrency market is beginning to shift to the downside. The market is clearly long, and it is hard to find signs of buyers. Rumors that MSTR will enter a quiet period before its January earnings report also reduce the pressure on BTC prices to rise in the next few weeks.

BTC ATM Implied Volatility

• Despite some local price fluctuations, the overall level of realized volatility continues to decline as the price of the currency finds balance in the large range of $92,000-99,000. However, the implied volatility for February and later expiration remains stubbornly high, and the market is still digesting the large demand earlier this month.

• We expect implied volatility to be more reasonably lower in January. The current market pricing for implied volatility for the first quarter is averaging over 60 pips per week, which is difficult to sustain based on historical data. Although we expect to see volatility increase in January as the market repositions at the beginning of the new year and Trump is inaugurated on the 20th. However, the BTC asset itself has become more stable and is well supported by ETF inflows. Therefore, we feel that sustainable actual volatility will be in the 40-50 range (rather than the current pricing of over 60 pips on February/March and later expiration dates).

BTC Skewness/Kurtosis

• Skewness has trended higher this week despite implied volatility remaining constant at low prices and realized volatility quite high below. The market continues to seek upside opportunities in 2025 and take advantage of the current lower prices. Meanwhile, the large buy flow from earlier this month has created shorts in the middle of the curve.

• Kurtosis has fallen unilaterally as the correlation between price and skewness has broken down. Meanwhile, demand on the lower flank remains absent in the medium to long term (only some short-term strategic buyers on the lower side to prevent the price from plummeting below $90,000).

This concludes the 2024 report! Thank you for reading, and Happy New Year!

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This article is sourced from the internet: BTC Volatility Weekly Review (December 23-30)

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