Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.08.16–08.23): Bitcoin rises as dovish turn to impending rate cut

Bitcoin rises as dovish stance turns to imminent rate cut

At 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, August 23, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made an important speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.

**It is worth noting that Powell stated quite clearly: The time for policy adjustment has come. The policy direction is clear, and the timing and pace of interest rate cuts will depend on subsequent data, changes in the outlook and the balance of risks.

Some analysts said that although Powell confirmed the markets widespread expectation of starting interest rate cuts in September, this speech was also dovish, providing a certain clarity to the financial market in the short term, but did not provide many clues about how the Fed will act after the September meeting.

For example, if there is another negative employment report, whether there will be a sharp 50 basis point rate cut, and whether rate cuts will continue in the coming months. However, Powells speech at least confirmed that the Feds fight against inflation over the past two years is about to reach a critical turning point.

After the annual meeting, Bitcoin rose from US$61,000 to a high of US$65,000, an increase of 6.5%.

There are about 26 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (September 19, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Analyse de l'environnement technique et du sentiment du marché

Composants d'analyse des sentiments

Indicateurs techniques

Prglace Trends

In the past week, BTC prices rose 8.77% and ETH prices rose 6.55%.

L’image ci-dessus est le graphique des prix du BTC au cours de la semaine dernière.

L’image ci-dessus est le graphique des prix de l’ETH au cours de la semaine dernière.

Le tableau montre le taux de variation des prix au cours de la semaine dernière.

Graphique de distribution du volume des prix (support et résistance)

In the past week, both BTC and ETH broke through the concentrated trading area and formed an upward trend.

L'image ci-dessus montre la répartition des zones de trading denses de BTC au cours de la semaine dernière.

L’image ci-dessus montre la répartition des zones de négociation denses d’ETH au cours de la semaine dernière.

Le tableau montre la fourchette de négociation hebdomadaire intensive du BTC et de l’ETH au cours de la semaine dernière.

Volume et intérêt ouvert

In the past week, the trading volume of BTC and ETH was the largest when they rose to 8.23; the open interest of BTC and ETH both increased slightly.

Le haut de l'image ci-dessus montre la tendance des prix du BTC, le milieu montre le volume des transactions, le bas montre l'intérêt ouvert, le bleu clair est la moyenne sur 1 jour et l'orange est la moyenne sur 7 jours. La couleur de la ligne K représente l'état actuel, le vert signifie que la hausse des prix est soutenue par le volume des transactions, le rouge signifie la fermeture des positions, le jaune signifie l'accumulation lente des positions et le noir signifie un état de surpeuplement.

Le haut de l'image ci-dessus montre la tendance des prix de l'ETH, le milieu est le volume des transactions, le bas est l'intérêt ouvert, le bleu clair est la moyenne sur 1 jour et l'orange est la moyenne sur 7 jours. La couleur de la ligne K représente l'état actuel, le vert signifie que la hausse des prix est soutenue par le volume des transactions, le rouge signifie la fermeture des positions, le jaune accumule lentement les positions et le noir est encombré.

Volatilité historique vs volatilité implicite

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was highest when they fluctuated in a wide range of 8.20; the implied volatility of BTC increased while that of ETH decreased.

La ligne jaune représente la volatilité historique, la ligne bleue la volatilité implicite et le point rouge la moyenne sur 7 jours.

Piloté par les événements

This past week, the Federal Reserve’s annual meeting hinted at an upcoming rate cut, and Bitcoin rose 6.5% in response.

Indicateurs de sentiment

Sentiment d’élan

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/CSI 300, Bitcoin was the strongest, while CSI 300 performed the worst.

L'image ci-dessus montre la tendance des différents actifs au cours de la semaine dernière.

Taux de prêt_Sentiment de prêt

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 6.6%, and short-term interest rates rose to 10.1%.

La ligne jaune représente le prix le plus élevé du taux d'intérêt en USD, la ligne bleue représente 75% du prix le plus élevé et la ligne rouge représente la moyenne sur 7 jours de 75% du prix le plus élevé.

Le tableau montre les rendements moyens des taux d'intérêt en USD à différents jours de détention dans le passé.

Taux de financement_Sentiment de levier du contrat

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was -1.4%, and contract leverage sentiment is turning pessimistic.

La ligne bleue est le taux de financement du BTC sur Binance, et la ligne rouge est sa moyenne sur 7 jours.

Le tableau montre le rendement moyen des frais BTC pour différents jours de détention dans le passé.

Corrélation du marché_Sentiment de consensus

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.85, and the consistency between different varieties has increased from a low level.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Étendue du marché_Sentiment général

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 89% of them were priced above the 30-day moving average, 75% of them were above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 66% of them were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 48% of them were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market returned to an upward trend.

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Résumer

In the past week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fluctuated and then rose. The historical volatility peaked on August 20 when the market fluctuated widely, and the trading volume peaked on August 23 when the market rose. The open interest of both BTC and ETH increased. The implied volatility of BTC increased while that of ETH decreased. Bitcoin performed the best in comparison with gold, Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index and CSI 300, while CSI 300 performed the weakest. Bitcoins funding rate fell to negative, reflecting the pessimistic sentiment of market participants. The correlation between the selected 129 currencies remained at around 0.85, showing that the consistency between different varieties has risen from a low level. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies in the overall market are still back to an upward trend. The Federal Reserves annual meeting hinted at an upcoming rate cut, and Bitcoin rose 6.5% in response.

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