Rapport de recherche sur le sentiment du marché des crypto-monnaies (2024.07.19-07.26) : le prix de l'Ethereum a chuté de plus de 7,5% et le capital d'ETHE a chuté de plus de 1,5%.

Ethereum price drops more than 7.5%, ETHE outflow surges

Data from Coinglass

ETHE is Grayscales Ethereum trust ETF with a fee of 2.5%. The Ethereum spot ETF had an overall net outflow of $133 million on the second day of listing. The culprit was Grayscales ETHE, which caused the sharp drop in Ethereum this week, with ETH falling to as low as around $3,100.

For most investors, the decision comes down to fees. Eight of the nine ETFs have management fees between 0.15% and 0.25%. Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH), a new fund created specifically for listing as an ETF, has a management fee of just 0.15%. These fees will be waived completely for the first six months after listing or until the funds assets under management (AUM) reaches $2 billion.

There are about 5 days until the next Fed meeting (2024.08.01)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Analyse de l'environnement technique et du sentiment du marché

Composants d'analyse des sentiments

Indicateurs techniques

Tendance des prix

BTC price rose 2.83% in the past week, while ETH price fell -7.33%.

L’image ci-dessus est le graphique des prix du BTC au cours de la semaine dernière.

L’image ci-dessus est le graphique des prix de l’ETH au cours de la semaine dernière.

Le tableau montre le taux de variation des prix au cours de la semaine dernière.

Graphique de distribution du volume des prix (support et résistance)

In the past week, BTC rose and then fell back into the concentrated trading area, while ETH fell and formed a new concentrated trading area at a low level.

L'image ci-dessus montre la répartition des zones de trading denses de BTC au cours de la semaine dernière.

L’image ci-dessus montre la répartition des zones de négociation denses d’ETH au cours de la semaine dernière.

Le tableau montre la fourchette de négociation hebdomadaire intensive du BTC et de l’ETH au cours de la semaine dernière.

Volume et intérêt ouvert

The biggest volume this past week was when BTC rose on July 19 and ETH fell on July 25; open interest rose for both BTC and ETH.

Le haut de l'image ci-dessus montre la tendance des prix du BTC, le milieu montre le volume des transactions, le bas montre l'intérêt ouvert, le bleu clair est la moyenne sur 1 jour et l'orange est la moyenne sur 7 jours. La couleur de la ligne K représente l'état actuel, le vert signifie que la hausse des prix est soutenue par le volume des transactions, le rouge signifie la fermeture des positions, le jaune signifie l'accumulation lente des positions et le noir signifie un état de surpeuplement.

Le haut de l'image ci-dessus montre la tendance des prix de l'ETH, le milieu est le volume des transactions, le bas est l'intérêt ouvert, le bleu clair est la moyenne sur 1 jour et l'orange est la moyenne sur 7 jours. La couleur de la ligne K représente l'état actuel, le vert signifie que la hausse des prix est soutenue par le volume des transactions, le rouge signifie la fermeture des positions, le jaune accumule lentement les positions et le noir est encombré.

Volatilité historique vs volatilité implicite

Historical volatility was highest this past week with BTC at 7.23 and ETH at 7.25; implied volatility was up with BTC and down with ETH.

La ligne jaune représente la volatilité historique, la ligne bleue la volatilité implicite et le point rouge la moyenne sur 7 jours.

Piloté par les événements

There were no major data releases in the past week.

Indicateurs de sentiment

Sentiment d’élan

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/CSI 300, Bitcoin was the strongest, while Hang Seng Index performed the worst.

L'image ci-dessus montre la tendance des différents actifs au cours de la semaine dernière.

Taux de prêt_Sentiment de prêt

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 9.2%, and short-term interest rates fell to 6%.

La ligne jaune représente le prix le plus élevé du taux d'intérêt en USD, la ligne bleue représente 75% du prix le plus élevé et la ligne rouge représente la moyenne sur 7 jours de 75% du prix le plus élevé.

Le tableau montre les rendements moyens des taux d'intérêt en USD à différents jours de détention dans le passé.

Taux de financement_Sentiment de levier du contrat

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 5.3%, and contract leverage sentiment rebounded from a low level.

La ligne bleue est le taux de financement du BTC sur Binance, et la ligne rouge est sa moyenne sur 7 jours.

Le tableau montre le rendement moyen des frais BTC pour différents jours de détention dans le passé.

Corrélation du marché_Sentiment de consensus

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.75, and the consistency between different varieties fell sharply and then rebounded.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Étendue du marché_Sentiment général

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 30% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 10% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 15% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 20% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market returned to a downward trend.

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Résumer

In the past week, the market performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum was different. Bitcoin fluctuated widely within the range, with the trading volume reaching the highest point on July 19 when it rose, the open interest volume increased, the implied volatility increased, and the funding rate rebounded, indicating that market sentiment has warmed up. Ethereum, on the other hand, fell in price after the shock, mainly affected by the outflow of ETHE funds, with the trading volume reaching the highest point on July 25 when it fell, the open interest volume increased, and the implied volatility decreased. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies have returned to a downward trend, indicating that the entire market has been dominated by declines in the past week.

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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.07.19-07.26): Ethereum price fell by more than 7.5%, and ETHE capital outflow surged

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