Rapport de recherche sur le sentiment du marché des crypto-monnaies (2024.06.28-07.05) : D'autres paniquent, mais je suis gourmand. Puis-je acheter le prix le plus bas ?
Others are panicking but I am greedy. Can I buy BTC at the bottom?
1. The German government liquidates a large amount of Bitcoin
On-chain data shows that the German government recently transferred more than $195 million worth of Bitcoin to various crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp, a move that has exacerbated market volatility. Critics believe that such a large-scale government sell-off could have a long-term negative impact on the stability of the crypto market. These Bitcoins originated from an investigation into the illegal website Movie 2 k.to, when approximately 50,000 Bitcoins were seized.
2. Panic has not occurred yet, but irrational emotions are likely to spread
Although the market implied volatility is currently at a low level, it has been on an upward trend in recent years. This shows that market sentiment is beginning to become more unstable. Although panic has not yet occurred, irrational emotions are likely to spread.
3. The opportunity to buy at the bottom comes after the real panic occurs
When there is a real panic in the market, prices tend to fall significantly below the intrinsic value of the asset. This is the best time for bargain hunters to exit, as they can buy high-value assets at very attractive prices. Investors should remain calm and wait for further developments in the market to seize the real bargain hunting opportunities.
Specific reference to several time nodes of Bitcoin:
March 2020 -33%, implied volatility 190
Bitcoin Performance: In March 2020, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of around $4,000. The crash became known as “Black Thursday,” as Bitcoin plunged more than 50% from a high of around $9,000 in just a few days.
Bottom-picking signal: Despite the panic in the market, the plunge also provided an excellent opportunity for bottom-pickers. As governments and central banks around the world launched massive economic stimulus plans, Bitcoin rebounded rapidly in the following months, recovering and breaking through the all-time high of $20,000 by the end of the year.
May 2021 -45%, implied volatility 160
Bitcoin Performance: In May 2021, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of around $30,000. The plunge was about half of Bitcoin’s value from its all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April.
Bottom-picking signal: Despite the panic selling in the market, bottom-pickers and long-term investors quickly stepped in, believing that the long-term prospects of Bitcoin remained optimistic. Subsequently, the price of Bitcoin gradually recovered and broke through the $60,000 level again by the end of 2021.
June and November 2022 -22%, implied volatility 110
Bitcoin Performance: In November 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of approximately $16,000. The plunge reflected a significant blow to market confidence in the crypto industry, especially a crisis of confidence in some major trading platforms.
Bottom-picking signal: Despite this, some investors believe that this is a great entry point for long-term holding of Bitcoin. As the market gradually digested the negative news, the price of Bitcoin stabilized in the following months and showed some signs of rebound.
July 2024 -8%, implied volatility rises to 57.5, bottom-fishing still needs to wait
Although the current market implied volatility has increased, it has not yet reached a real panic level. Investors should pay close attention to market trends and wait for more obvious panic signals to appear before buying at the bottom.
Résumer
The plunges and subsequent bottoms at the above time points provide valuable lessons for investors. Short-term market fluctuations should not affect the assessment of the long-term value of Bitcoin. After waiting for panic selling to occur, calm investors can often find undervalued assets and get rich returns when the market recovers.
There are about 24 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.08.01)
https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168
Analyse de l'environnement technique et du sentiment du marché
Composants d'analyse des sentiments
Indicateurs techniques
Tendance des prix
BTC price fell -7.55% and ETH price fell -11.32% in the past week.
L’image ci-dessus est le graphique des prix du BTC au cours de la semaine dernière.
L’image ci-dessus est le graphique des prix de l’ETH au cours de la semaine dernière.
Le tableau montre le taux de variation des prix au cours de la semaine dernière.
Graphique de distribution du volume des prix (support et résistance)
Over the past week, BTC and ETH continued to fall after breaking down from the dense trading area at 7.04.
L'image ci-dessus montre la répartition des zones de trading denses de BTC au cours de la semaine dernière.
L’image ci-dessus montre la répartition des zones de négociation denses d’ETH au cours de la semaine dernière.
Le tableau montre la fourchette de négociation hebdomadaire intensive du BTC et de l’ETH au cours de la semaine dernière.
Volume et intérêt ouvert
Over the past week, BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they fell on July 4; open interest for both BTC and ETH continued to rise.
Le haut de l'image ci-dessus montre la tendance des prix du BTC, le milieu montre le volume des transactions, le bas montre l'intérêt ouvert, le bleu clair est la moyenne sur 1 jour et l'orange est la moyenne sur 7 jours. La couleur de la ligne K représente l'état actuel, le vert signifie que la hausse des prix est soutenue par le volume des transactions, le rouge signifie la fermeture des positions, le jaune signifie l'accumulation lente des positions et le noir signifie un état de surpeuplement.
Le haut de l'image ci-dessus montre la tendance des prix de l'ETH, le milieu est le volume des transactions, le bas est l'intérêt ouvert, le bleu clair est la moyenne sur 1 jour et l'orange est la moyenne sur 7 jours. La couleur de la ligne K représente l'état actuel, le vert signifie que la hausse des prix est soutenue par le volume des transactions, le rouge signifie la fermeture des positions, le jaune accumule lentement les positions et le noir est encombré.
Volatilité historique vs volatilité implicite
In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when it fell to 7.4; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH rose simultaneously.
La ligne jaune représente la volatilité historique, la ligne bleue la volatilité implicite et le point rouge la moyenne sur 7 jours.
Piloté par les événements
No data was released in the past week.
Indicateurs de sentiment
Sentiment d’élan
In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, gold was the strongest, while Bitcoin performed the worst.
L'image ci-dessus montre la tendance des différents actifs au cours de la semaine dernière.
Taux de prêt_Sentiment de prêt
The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 11.4%, and short-term interest rates remained at 12.8%.
La ligne jaune représente le prix le plus élevé du taux d'intérêt en USD, la ligne bleue représente 75% du prix le plus élevé et la ligne rouge représente la moyenne sur 7 jours de 75% du prix le plus élevé.
Le tableau montre les rendements moyens des taux d'intérêt en USD pour différents jours de détention dans le passé.
Taux de financement_Sentiment de levier du contrat
The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 10.9%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a low level.
La ligne bleue est le taux de financement du BTC sur Binance, et la ligne rouge est sa moyenne sur 7 jours.
Le tableau montre le rendement moyen des frais BTC pour différents jours de détention dans le passé.
Corrélation du marché_Sentiment de consensus
The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week dropped to around 0.73, and the consistency between different varieties increased significantly.
In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation
Étendue du marché_Sentiment général
Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 3.9% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 16.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 2.3% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 2.3% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market continued to fall.
L'image ci-dessus montre [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos, etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, lien, métier à tisser, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magie, mana, manta, masque, matic, meme, mina, mkr, près, néo, nfp, océan, un, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rune, rvn, sable, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vétérinaire, vagues, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] Proportion sur 30 jours de chaque indicateur de largeur
Résumer
Over the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continued to fall, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached the highest level during the decline on July 4. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has also increased simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate remains at a low level, which may reflect the continued low leverage sentiment of market participants towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies continue to fall, indicating that the overall market has maintained a weak trend over the past week.
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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom of BTC?
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