EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation (6.24~6.30): Short-term effective support, capital pressure becomes the decisive fac

Auteur original : Shang2046

Les informations, opinions et jugements sur les marchés, projets, devises, etc. mentionnés dans ce rapport sont fournis à titre indicatif uniquement et ne constituent aucun conseil en investissement.

Market Week

After BTC fell all the way to $58,400 last week, the trading volume was effectively increased and gained strong support. After a four-day rebound, it gradually approached the $64,000 mark. Coinbases weekly trading volume increased by 31% month-on-month. The market followed the trend and formed the second largest chip accumulation point of 479,000 BTC at $61,000. The first chip accumulation point was $16,000, which is where this round of bull market started.

Once again, the short-term investor breakeven support was validated. The eMerge engine shows that after a short-term loss liquidation, the market is at the bottom of the mid-line. However, the market still needs to work hard to return to the latest breakeven point of $64,400.

A further test point is the $66,000 mainstream mining machine shutdown price for US miners that we have repeatedly mentioned. If the results pass these two barriers, the price of BTC is expected to return to the big bull market rhythm in March. When it plummeted to $58,400 last week, market sentiment also quickly fell to an extreme panic state, with the panic index reaching 31. But even so, the adjustment of BTC prices from the high point is only 20%, but after 16 weeks of shrinking high-level shocks, market confidence has been greatly impacted. Some pessimists even asked whether this round of bull market has ended?

We tend to believe that the market is in the second half of a mid-term clearing phase. Extending the time period to a one-year cycle, several key factors, such as interest rate cuts and structural positive factors from the US election, remain solid.

As we mentioned in the previous weekly report, in the short term, people may have overestimated the momentum of spot ETFs in the United States and Hong Kong: institutions account for only 22% (most of which are hedge funds), and real long-term investors have not yet come in. But in the long run, people have seriously underestimated the significance of ETF exposure.

What about the bigger picture? Last week, the far-right party won the first French parliamentary election. Before that, the far-right also won the European Parliament election. In the United States, Mr. America First Trump seems to be getting closer to moving into the White House for the second time; right-wing forces are rising widely around the world. Their common characteristics are that they reject global trade and cooperation externally and brew populist trends internally.

The world has entered an era of rupture and turmoil under the background of the Cold War and local hot wars. This is the historic window period for Bitcoin to truly leap to the throne of the worlds major safe-haven asset.

Supply and demand structure

The outflow of USD stablecoins exceeded $650 million last week, reversing the inflow of the previous week. The holdings of long-term investors increased by 20,000 coins last week. However, the holdings of coins on exchanges increased by 20,000 coins to 2.967 million coins, indicating a slight increase in short-term selling pressure.

As for ETFs, after a net outflow of 175 million last Monday, the remaining four days were all slight inflows, with an overall outflow of 38 million US dollars for the week. Overall, the liquidity of ETFs is also in a quasi-frozen state, and the scale has shrunk significantly compared with the daily inflows of hundreds of millions of US dollars in March and April.

In terms of contract data that are more sensitive to short-term prices, whether it is the volume of open contracts, rates or volatility, they are all at a relatively low level in the past six months, indicating that the market may be brewing a new direction.

On-chain data

The on-chain data showed abnormal changes, and the full-week data was active. New addresses, active entities, and calculations all rebounded, and the number of new addresses on the 7th showed a rebound trend. There was no significant change in the on-chain transfer fee.

EMC BTC Cycle indicator

Like last week, the EMC BTC Cycle bullish indicator is 0.125 and the market is still in a bullish dormant period.

FIN

EMC Labs a été fondé par des investisseurs en actifs cryptographiques et des data scientists en avril 2023. Il se concentre sur la recherche sur l'industrie de la blockchain et les investissements sur le marché secondaire de la cryptographie, prend la prospective, la connaissance et l'exploration de données de l'industrie comme son cœur de compétitivité et s'engage à participer à l'industrie en plein essor de la blockchain. grâce à la recherche et à l’investissement, et en promouvant les actifs blockchain et cryptographiques pour apporter des bénéfices à l’humanité.

Pour plus d'informations, veuillez consulter : https://www.emc.fund

This article is sourced from the internet: EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Observation (6.24~6.30): Short-term effective support, capital pressure becomes the decisive factor

Related: Planet Daily | The U.S. unadjusted CPI annual rate in April was 3.4%, expected to be 3.40%, and the previous value was 3

Headlines The U.S. April unadjusted CPI annual rate was 3.4%, expected to be 3.40%, and the previous value was 3.50%. The U.S. unadjusted CPI annual rate in April was 3.4%, in line with expectations of 3.40% and the previous value of 3.50%. The seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate in April was 0.3%, in line with expectations of 0.30% and the previous value of 0.40%. The core CPI annual rate in April was 3.6%, which was expected to be 3.60% and the previous value was 3.80%. (Jinshi) Swap markets expect Fed rate cuts to accelerate in 2024 Analyst Steve Goldstein said the markets first reaction was positive – stocks rose and bonds also rose. SP 500 futures rose 0.5% from flat, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell 11 basis points.…