Análisis macro de SignalPlus (20240506): Los activos de riesgo tienen la posibilidad de empezar a subir lentamente de nuevo

For the first time this year, employment data was lower than expected (no surprise increase), with an overall employment change of +175,000 (the previous average increase was around 275,000), and the unemployment rate also unexpectedly rising from 3.83% to 3.87%.

Other higher-frequency job market indicators are also beginning to show signs of a slowdown, such as the recent JOLTS report showing a lower ratio of job openings to the unemployed, and private sector hiring and quits at multi-year lows.

In addition, hiring trends among small businesses weakened significantly, with both the employment components of the ISM and PMI showing weakness, and the share of service and manufacturing firms hiring falling to levels typically seen in recessions.

Last Friday, we pointed out that the non-farm payrolls data was more likely to be dovish, especially considering that the Federal Reserve FOMC made it clear that they were increasing their attention to the weakening of the job market and were willing to ignore the recent inflation situation. Now that the employment data is indeed weak, the return of interest rate cut expectations to the market has triggered another wave of risk rebound.

Yields have seen a bullish steepness, with the 2-year yield falling from 5% to 4.8% and the 10-year yield returning to 4.5%, with the market pricing again predicting nearly 2 rate cuts this year. In the stock market, technology stocks rose 2%, the SPX closed above 5,100 points, and the USD/JPY fell from last weeks high of 159 to 152.5 in 48 hours. All in all, market sentiment was boosted by the dovish interest rate backdrop, ending last week with a strong risk rebound.

This weeks macro data will be relatively light, and the comments of Fed officials may be more important than the data itself. China will release money supply/financing data, while the United States will have Barkin, Williams, Kashkari, Jerrferson, Collins, Cook and Bowman take turns to express policy opinions. After a few weeks of risk cleansing, market positions should be cleaner than in March, and risk sentiment may have found a recent bottom, at least before the data begins to imply more hard landing risks. As investors continue to adjust their portfolios rather than sell stocks directly, the realized volatility of the SPX remains very low. Bloomberg reported that during the current adjustment, the leading stocks of the SPX have changed, although it is more like a rotation in the magnificient 7. Risk assets are expected to have a chance to slowly climb from here.

Cryptocurrency is increasingly correlated with macro sentiment, as sentiment shifted back toward an accommodative Fed/lower forward rates/stronger equities, crypto prices rebounded sharply last Friday, with BTC spot price exceeding $64,000 over the weekend, despite weak spot gold performance. US ETF inflows were strong last Friday, reaching $378 million, and even Grayscale saw $63 million in inflows. In the current macro environment, we maintain our view that risk-reward has become more neutral, and expect short-term price corrections to be more favorable for buying on dips.

Puede buscar SignalPlus en la tienda de complementos de ChatGPT 4.0 para obtener información de cifrado en tiempo real. Si desea recibir nuestras actualizaciones de inmediato, siga nuestra cuenta de Twitter @SignalPlus_Web3 o únase a nuestro grupo WeChat (agregue el asistente WeChat: SignalPlus 123), el grupo Telegram y la comunidad Discord para comunicarse e interactuar con más amigos. Sitio web oficial de SignalPlus: https://www.signalplus.com

This article is sourced from the internet: SignalPlus Macro Analysis (20240506): Risk assets have a chance to start climbing slowly again

Relacionado: ¿Puede el precio de Pepe (PEPE) alcanzar un nuevo máximo histórico esta semana?

En resumen, el precio de Pepe observó una recuperación de 27% en las últimas 24 horas después de caer desde el máximo histórico de $0.00001000. Esta subida infundió esperanza y confianza en los corazones de 15.300 alcistas históricos, que esperaban beneficios una vez más. Casi $900 millones en PEPE están a punto de generar ganancias, lo que impulsará a los inversores a mantener el impulso alcista. El precio de Pepe reavivó el sentimiento alcista entre los inversores el miércoles después de registrar un aumento sustancial en los gráficos. Esto infundió esperanza entre cierto grupo de inversores de volver a ver beneficios. Sin embargo, las condiciones más amplias del mercado representan un obstáculo en el camino de la moneda meme para alcanzar un nuevo máximo histórico. Objetivo de $900 millones de los inversores El precio de Pepe registró un repunte de 643% desde finales de febrero para llevar el precio a un máximo histórico...