Forbes: In 2025, cryptocurrency will be redefined

Artículo original de Nina Bambysheva, Forbes

Traducción original: Luffy, Foresight News

Crypto winter? It’s over. Crypto empires falling and court drama? They’re a thing of the past. The survivors? Battle-tested and savvy, as if this is a new gold rush.

After years of conflict with the U.S. Securities and Intercambio Commission (SEC), Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have finally arrived. According to criptocurrency research firm K 33 Research, as of December 16, the assets held by U.S. Bitcoin ETFs reached $129 billion, surpassing the $125 billion of gold ETFs.

Mercado excitement after the US election, coupled with Donald Trumps promise to make the United States the cryptocurrency capital of the world and establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, pushed the price of Bitcoin to over $100,000 at one point.

Solana is seeing growth, fueled by memecoin hype and the rise of new narratives like DePIN, a network that uses blockchain technology to decentralize control and ownership of physical infrastructure. Platforms like Polymarket, where users can bet on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, and battle royale game Off The Grid have found mainstream success. A new wave of “degens” are betting on tokens like fartcoin and dogwifhat, both of which now have market caps of over $1 billion.

“This year, crypto has entered mainstream consciousness in a way that it hasn’t been in 2021, and it’s now a sustainable, long-term asset class that will have a voice and play an important role,” said Rob Hadick, general partner at Dragonfly, a San Francisco-based cryptocurrency venture capital firm. “If you just look at the impact of crypto on the election, whether it’s crypto political donations or promoting it in legislatures and presidential candidates, this is unprecedented and a big step forward in the legitimization of crypto.”

Donald Trump attends the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee. Photo credit: The Washington Post

As Trump and a group of pro-cryptocurrency officials prepare to take office, what industry insiders call the golden age of cryptocurrency has arrived. Here are the trends brewing:

All-time Highs and US Bitcoin Reserves

The art of bold price predictions is back in fashion. Crypto asset management company Bitwise predicts that if the United States establishes a strategic reserve similar to oil or gold, the price of Bitcoin will reach $200,000 or even $500,000. The logic is: the official US Bitcoin reserves will trigger global FOMO.

Trump proposed using 200,000 Bitcoins (worth $21 billion) confiscated from criminals to start the reserve at the Nashville Bitcoin Conference in July. But the legal path is unclear: would congressional approval be required, or could the executive branch act unilaterally? Crypto-friendly Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed a reserve scheme operated by the Treasury Department in July. Skeptics argue that bitcoins volatility could undermine financial stability. Trumps silence on whether the U.S. would buy more bitcoin through the open market adds another layer of confusion.

Crypto Regulatory Reset: A Friendly Washington

The new administration is expected to be the most cryptocurrency-friendly to date. Some of the key government appointments related to cryptocurrency include:

• U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC): Former SEC Commissioner and cryptocurrency supporter Paul Atkins is set to replace cryptocurrency nemesis Gary Gensler, who was known for his litigation and enforcement crackdowns on crypto companies during his tenure.

• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC): Brian Quintenz, policy chief at Andreessen Horowitz and former CFTC commissioner, is the favorite to lead the agency.

• Treasury: Hedge fund billionaire and Bitcoin advocate Scott Bessent is Trumps pick for Treasury secretary.

• Department of Commerce: Howard Lutnik, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald (the primary custodian of Tether’s USDT reserves), will lead this department.

• AI and Crypto Czar: David Sacks, a longtime venture capitalist who also worked with Elon Musk at PayPal, will oversee policy in two key areas of Trump’s strategy to bolster the country’s competitiveness.

• House Financial Services Committee: Rep. French Hill, R-Arkansas, who has championed crypto-friendly legislation alongside outgoing committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, plans to prioritize a crypto market structure bill in the first 100 days and investigate the so-called Choke Point 2.0, which many believe unfairly targeted the crypto industry through debanking practices.

“There’s a real opportunity to get good policy for the industry,” said Kristin Smith, CEO of the Washington, D.C.-based Blockchain Association, which represents more than 100 cryptocurrency companies. “The White House has said this is a priority. I think we’re going to see a big shift across government, legislation to drive market structure and stablecoins, and a lot of innovation coming back to the U.S.,” she added.

New Crypto IPOs and VC Entrance

The cryptocurrency IPO process is heating up. Bitwise lists five companies that could go public next year:

• Circle: Issuer of the second largest stablecoin USDC, which secretly applied for an IPO in January this year.

• Figure: The company, known for its blockchain-based financial services such as mortgages, personal loans and asset tokenization, has been exploring a listing since last year.

• Kraken: The US-based cryptocurrency exchange’s IPO plans date back to 2021.

• Anchorage Digital: Status as a federally chartered bank could pave the way for it to go public.

• Chainalysis: A leader in blockchain compliance and intelligence services, expected to go public.

Additionally, Dragonfly’s Hadick said: “I expect the LP (limited partners of crypto venture capital institutions) market to get better and they will want to put more money into cryptocurrencies. Many traditional Web2 crossover funds will return to the Web3 field. We have already seen such trends in certain areas, such as stablecoins and payments.” He added that venture capital transactions tend to lag behind public market price increases by one or two quarters.

Crypto-related companies included in major stock indices

MicroStrategy’s shares are up more than 400% this year. The company is now a component of the Nasdaq-100 index, thanks to new accounting rules that allow companies to reflect their bitcoin investments at market value in their financial statements, and analysts predict that the company will be added to the SP 500 next. The change could put MicroStrategy in the portfolios of countless American investors by entering index-tracking funds. MicroStrategy co-founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor’s “Bitcoin treasury” strategy (selling bonds and stocks to hoard bitcoin) has pushed his $86 billion business into the top 100 companies in the SP 500. Coinbase, which is up 70% this year, could also join the coveted index, analysts say.

Stablecoins surge

With the United States about to introduce much-anticipated stablecoin legislation, the stablecoin industry is expected to usher in explosive growth, with the market value expected to double to $400 billion. According to Bitwise data, stablecoin transactions will reach $8.3 trillion in 2024, almost comparable to Visas $9.9 trillion in payments.

Tether and Circle remain dominant. However, Hadick warned that their growth could soon stall if they continue to operate more like asset managers than payments companies.

Stripe’s $1.1 billion acquisition of stablecoin platform Bridge in October sent a message: stablecoins could become a cornerstone of fintech. Stripe called it a “superconductor of financial services” and touted its unparalleled speed, low cost, and global reach. Robinhood followed suit and explored building a global stablecoin network.

Meanwhile, the next generation of “stablecoin 2.0” models are quietly emerging. “There are a lot of new stablecoin models that are returning revenue to token holders or applications that actually attract users,” explained Ceteris, director of research at New York-based cryptocurrency analysis firm Delphi Digital. “I think these models are disruptive.”

Traditional asset tokenization is accelerating

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has been promoting tokenization for years. Everything from real estate to art may soon have tokens. The biggest benefits of tokenization are: instant settlement, lower costs than traditional securitization, 24/7 liquidity and transparency.

Three years ago, the cryptocurrency industry tokenized only $2 billion in real-world assets (RWAs), including private credit, U.S. debt, commodities, and stocks. Today, that number is closer to $14 billion. Venture capital firm ParaFi predicts that by 2030, the tokenized RWA market could soar to $2 trillion, heralding a major shift in asset ownership and trading.

New applications, better infrastructure

The buzzword for the end of 2024 is AI Agents. Get ready to witness a fusion of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency that is closer to science fiction.

This trend is already gaining momentum. Take TruthTerminal, an AI agent that not only received $50,000 from Marc Andreessen, but also became a millionaire using social media X. Its success was due to promoting a token based on a ridiculous early 2000s meme (the token’s anonymous creator transferred a large sum of money to TruthTerminal’s wallet, which is managed by Andy Ayrey).

But analysts are cautious. Practical AI agents, such as those that attempt to perform complex transactions across blockchains on behalf of users, are few and far between and in their early stages. “Agents are exciting because they are so new,” says Delphi’s Ceteris. “But for better or worse, it could be the biggest bubble of this cycle.”

While the blockchain industry remains fragmented and most decentralized applications have yet to go mainstream, work on building a robust infrastructure continues. “Solana sets the trend for the era of high-throughput blockchains, where almost every new chain is launched, resulting in a large amount of cheap block space,” Ceteris explained.

Just like that, the crypto narrative has shifted from survival to prosperity. This is just a taste of what the next year could bring. You can choose to prepare your popcorn for the show, or get your wallet out for this opportunity. Caution is essential, the market will experience highs and lows. And this time, the stakes seem higher than ever.

This article is sourced from the internet: Forbes: In 2025, cryptocurrency will be redefiniciónned

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