Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.08.16–08.23): Bitcoin rises as dovish turn to impending rate cut

Bitcoin rises as dovish stance turns to imminent rate cut

At 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, August 23, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made an important speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting.

**It is worth noting that Powell stated quite clearly: The time for policy adjustment has come. The policy direction is clear, and the timing and pace of interest rate cuts will depend on subsequent data, changes in the outlook and the balance of risks.

Some analysts said that although Powell confirmed the markets widespread expectation of starting interest rate cuts in September, this speech was also dovish, providing a certain clarity to the financial market in the short term, but did not provide many clues about how the Fed will act after the September meeting.

For example, if there is another negative employment report, whether there will be a sharp 50 basis point rate cut, and whether rate cuts will continue in the coming months. However, Powells speech at least confirmed that the Feds fight against inflation over the past two years is about to reach a critical turning point.

After the annual meeting, Bitcoin rose from US$61,000 to a high of US$65,000, an increase of 6.5%.

There are about 26 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (September 19, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Análisis del entorno técnico y de sentimiento del mercado.

Componentes del análisis de sentimiento

Indicadores técnicos

Prhielo Trends

In the past week, BTC prices rose 8.77% and ETH prices rose 6.55%.

La imagen de arriba es el gráfico de precios de BTC la semana pasada.

La imagen de arriba es el gráfico de precios de ETH la semana pasada.

La tabla muestra la tasa de cambio de precios durante la última semana.

Gráfico de distribución de volumen de precios (soporte y resistencia)

In the past week, both BTC and ETH broke through the concentrated trading area and formed an upward trend.

La imagen de arriba muestra la distribución de las densas áreas comerciales de BTC durante la semana pasada.

La imagen de arriba muestra la distribución de las densas áreas comerciales de ETH durante la semana pasada.

La tabla muestra el rango de negociación intensivo semanal de BTC y ETH durante la semana pasada.

Volumen e interés abierto

In the past week, the trading volume of BTC and ETH was the largest when they rose to 8.23; the open interest of BTC and ETH both increased slightly.

La parte superior de la imagen de arriba muestra la tendencia del precio de BTC, el medio muestra el volumen de operaciones, la parte inferior muestra el interés abierto, el azul claro es el promedio de 1 día y el naranja es el promedio de 7 días. El color de la línea K representa el estado actual, el verde significa que el aumento de precios está respaldado por el volumen de operaciones, el rojo significa cerrar posiciones, el amarillo significa acumular posiciones lentamente y el negro significa estado abarrotado.

La parte superior de la imagen de arriba muestra la tendencia del precio de ETH, el medio es el volumen de operaciones, la parte inferior es el interés abierto, el azul claro es el promedio de 1 día y el naranja es el promedio de 7 días. El color de la línea K representa el estado actual, el verde significa que el aumento de precios está respaldado por el volumen de operaciones, el rojo significa que se cierran posiciones, el amarillo se acumula lentamente y el negro está abarrotado.

Volatilidad histórica versus volatilidad implícita

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was highest when they fluctuated in a wide range of 8.20; the implied volatility of BTC increased while that of ETH decreased.

La línea amarilla es la volatilidad histórica, la línea azul es la volatilidad implícita y el punto rojo es su promedio de 7 días.

Evento conducido

This past week, the Federal Reserve’s annual meeting hinted at an upcoming rate cut, and Bitcoin rose 6.5% in response.

Indicadores de sentimiento

Sentimiento de impulso

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/CSI 300, Bitcoin was the strongest, while CSI 300 performed the worst.

La imagen de arriba muestra la tendencia de diferentes activos durante la semana pasada.

Tasa de préstamo_Sentimiento de préstamo

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 6.6%, and short-term interest rates rose to 10.1%.

La línea amarilla es el precio más alto de la tasa de interés en USD, la línea azul es 75% del precio más alto y la línea roja es el promedio de 7 días de 75% del precio más alto.

La tabla muestra los rendimientos promedio de las tasas de interés en USD en diferentes días de tenencia en el pasado.

Tasa de financiación_Sentimiento de apalancamiento del contrato

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was -1.4%, and contract leverage sentiment is turning pessimistic.

La línea azul es la tasa de financiación de BTC en Binance y la línea roja es su promedio de 7 días.

La tabla muestra el rendimiento promedio de las tarifas de BTC para diferentes días de tenencia en el pasado.

Correlación del mercado_Sentimiento de consenso

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.85, and the consistency between different varieties has increased from a low level.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Amplitud del mercado_Sentimiento general

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 89% of them were priced above the 30-day moving average, 75% of them were above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 66% of them were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 48% of them were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market returned to an upward trend.

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Resumir

In the past week, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) fluctuated and then rose. The historical volatility peaked on August 20 when the market fluctuated widely, and the trading volume peaked on August 23 when the market rose. The open interest of both BTC and ETH increased. The implied volatility of BTC increased while that of ETH decreased. Bitcoin performed the best in comparison with gold, Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index and CSI 300, while CSI 300 performed the weakest. Bitcoins funding rate fell to negative, reflecting the pessimistic sentiment of market participants. The correlation between the selected 129 currencies remained at around 0.85, showing that the consistency between different varieties has risen from a low level. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies in the overall market are still back to an upward trend. The Federal Reserves annual meeting hinted at an upcoming rate cut, and Bitcoin rose 6.5% in response.

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