Informe de investigación sobre el sentimiento del mercado de criptomonedas (28/06/2024-5/07/2024): otros están entrando en pánico, pero yo soy codicioso. ¿Puedo comprar el precio más bajo?

Others are panicking but I am greedy. Can I buy BTC at the bottom?

1. The German government liquidates a large amount of Bitcoin

On-chain data shows that the German government recently transferred more than $195 million worth of Bitcoin to various crypto exchanges, including Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp, a move that has exacerbated market volatility. Critics believe that such a large-scale government sell-off could have a long-term negative impact on the stability of the crypto market. These Bitcoins originated from an investigation into the illegal website Movie 2 k.to, when approximately 50,000 Bitcoins were seized.

2. Panic has not occurred yet, but irrational emotions are likely to spread

Although the market implied volatility is currently at a low level, it has been on an upward trend in recent years. This shows that market sentiment is beginning to become more unstable. Although panic has not yet occurred, irrational emotions are likely to spread.

3. The opportunity to buy at the bottom comes after the real panic occurs

When there is a real panic in the market, prices tend to fall significantly below the intrinsic value of the asset. This is the best time for bargain hunters to exit, as they can buy high-value assets at very attractive prices. Investors should remain calm and wait for further developments in the market to seize the real bargain hunting opportunities.

Specific reference to several time nodes of Bitcoin:

March 2020 -33%, implied volatility 190

Bitcoin Performance: In March 2020, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of around $4,000. The crash became known as “Black Thursday,” as Bitcoin plunged more than 50% from a high of around $9,000 in just a few days.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite the panic in the market, the plunge also provided an excellent opportunity for bottom-pickers. As governments and central banks around the world launched massive economic stimulus plans, Bitcoin rebounded rapidly in the following months, recovering and breaking through the all-time high of $20,000 by the end of the year.

May 2021 -45%, implied volatility 160

Bitcoin Performance: In May 2021, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of around $30,000. The plunge was about half of Bitcoin’s value from its all-time high of nearly $65,000 in April.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite the panic selling in the market, bottom-pickers and long-term investors quickly stepped in, believing that the long-term prospects of Bitcoin remained optimistic. Subsequently, the price of Bitcoin gradually recovered and broke through the $60,000 level again by the end of 2021.

June and November 2022 -22%, implied volatility 110

Bitcoin Performance: In November 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell to a low of approximately $16,000. The plunge reflected a significant blow to market confidence in the crypto industry, especially a crisis of confidence in some major trading platforms.

Bottom-picking signal: Despite this, some investors believe that this is a great entry point for long-term holding of Bitcoin. As the market gradually digested the negative news, the price of Bitcoin stabilized in the following months and showed some signs of rebound.

July 2024 -8%, implied volatility rises to 57.5, bottom-fishing still needs to wait

Although the current market implied volatility has increased, it has not yet reached a real panic level. Investors should pay close attention to market trends and wait for more obvious panic signals to appear before buying at the bottom.

Resumir

The plunges and subsequent bottoms at the above time points provide valuable lessons for investors. Short-term market fluctuations should not affect the assessment of the long-term value of Bitcoin. After waiting for panic selling to occur, calm investors can often find undervalued assets and get rich returns when the market recovers.

There are about 24 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (2024.08.01)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Análisis del entorno técnico y de sentimiento del mercado.

Componentes del análisis de sentimiento

Indicadores técnicos

Tendencia de precios

BTC price fell -7.55% and ETH price fell -11.32% in the past week.

La imagen de arriba es el gráfico de precios de BTC la semana pasada.

La imagen de arriba es el gráfico de precios de ETH la semana pasada.

La tabla muestra la tasa de cambio de precios durante la última semana.

Gráfico de distribución de volumen de precios (soporte y resistencia)

Over the past week, BTC and ETH continued to fall after breaking down from the dense trading area at 7.04.

La imagen de arriba muestra la distribución de las densas áreas comerciales de BTC durante la semana pasada.

La imagen de arriba muestra la distribución de las densas áreas comerciales de ETH durante la semana pasada.

La tabla muestra el rango de negociación intensivo semanal de BTC y ETH durante la semana pasada.

Volumen e interés abierto

Over the past week, BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they fell on July 4; open interest for both BTC and ETH continued to rise.

La parte superior de la imagen de arriba muestra la tendencia del precio de BTC, el medio muestra el volumen de operaciones, la parte inferior muestra el interés abierto, el azul claro es el promedio de 1 día y el naranja es el promedio de 7 días. El color de la línea K representa el estado actual, el verde significa que el aumento de precios está respaldado por el volumen de operaciones, el rojo significa cerrar posiciones, el amarillo significa acumular posiciones lentamente y el negro significa estado abarrotado.

La parte superior de la imagen de arriba muestra la tendencia del precio de ETH, el medio es el volumen de operaciones, la parte inferior es el interés abierto, el azul claro es el promedio de 1 día y el naranja es el promedio de 7 días. El color de la línea K representa el estado actual, el verde significa que el aumento de precios está respaldado por el volumen de operaciones, el rojo significa que se cierran posiciones, el amarillo se acumula lentamente y el negro está abarrotado.

Volatilidad histórica versus volatilidad implícita

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when it fell to 7.4; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH rose simultaneously.

La línea amarilla es la volatilidad histórica, la línea azul es la volatilidad implícita y el punto rojo es su promedio de 7 días.

Evento conducido

No data was released in the past week.

Indicadores de sentimiento

Sentimiento de impulso

La semana pasada, entre Bitcoin/Oro/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, el oro fue el más fuerte, mientras que Bitcoin tuvo el peor desempeño.

La imagen de arriba muestra la tendencia de diferentes activos durante la semana pasada.

Tasa de préstamo_Sentimiento de préstamo

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 11.4%, and short-term interest rates remained at 12.8%.

La línea amarilla es el precio más alto de la tasa de interés en USD, la línea azul es 75% del precio más alto y la línea roja es el promedio de 7 días de 75% del precio más alto.

La tabla muestra los rendimientos promedio de las tasas de interés en USD para diferentes días de tenencia en el pasado.

Tasa de financiación_Sentimiento de apalancamiento del contrato

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 10.9%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a low level.

La línea azul es la tasa de financiación de BTC en Binance y la línea roja es su promedio de 7 días.

La tabla muestra el rendimiento promedio de las tarifas de BTC para diferentes días de tenencia en el pasado.

Correlación del mercado_Sentimiento de consenso

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week dropped to around 0.73, and the consistency between different varieties increased significantly.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Amplitud del mercado_Sentimiento general

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 3.9% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average, 16.5% of the coins were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 2.3% of the coins were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 2.3% of the coins were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market continued to fall.

La imagen de arriba muestra [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jazmín, jto, saltar, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, enlazar, telar, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magia, mana, manta, máscara, matic, meme, mina, mkr, cerca, neo, nfp, oceano, uno, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rosa, rvn, arena, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, veterinario, olas, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] Proporción de 30 días de cada indicador de ancho

Resumir

Over the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) continued to fall, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached the highest level during the decline on July 4. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum has increased. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has also increased simultaneously. Bitcoins funding rate remains at a low level, which may reflect the continued low leverage sentiment of market participants towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies continue to fall, indicating that the overall market has maintained a weak trend over the past week.

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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.06.28-07.05): Others are panicking, but I am greedy. Can I buy the bottom of BTC?

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