El mercado alcista está regresando rápidamente: con una reversión polar, ¿es muy probable que la SEC apruebe el Ethereum?

Original｜Odaily Planet Daily

Autor: jk

Market Quick Facts: When was the last time Ethereum rose 20% in a day?

The cryptocurrency market has experienced a significant bullish rally over the past 24 hours.

Bitcoin hovered around $67,000 last night, breaking through the $70,000 mark in the early morning before falling back. It briefly fell back below $69,000 before rebounding strongly. As of the time of writing, it is currently trading at $71,364, with a 24-hour increase of 7.73%.

Ethereum’s rise is even more surprising: around 3 a.m. Beijing time, affected by the SEC’s news on the spot Ethereum ETF, Ethereum’s rise almost skyrocketed, soaring from around US$3,150 to over US$3,600 in just 3 hours. As of the time of writing, it is currently trading at US$3,653, with a 24-hour increase of 19.03%.

Ethereums increase, source: Coinmarketcap

In addition, other mainstream currencies influenced by Bitcoin and Ethereum have all seen huge increases: MATIC rose 9.78% in 24 hours, XRP rose 5.53% in 24 hours, SOL rose 9.94% in 24 hours, and DOGE rose 11.20% in 24 hours, basically returning to the market price level in early April.

The reason behind this: Has the previously unpopular Ethereum ETF reversed?

Until today, the cryptocurrency market was generally not optimistic about the Ethereum ETF. There are several reasons : the question of whether Ethereum itself is a security has not yet been determined . This issue is the core issue in the SECs case with several cryptocurrency exchanges. The attribution of this issue will directly determine the fate of the cryptocurrency market and whether it needs to be disclosed as a security ETF. In contrast, Bitcoin has never had such a debate and has always been considered a commodity, so it can become a less restricted ETF component asset like gold. Secondly, Ethereum has a greater market volatility and a shorter history than Bitcoin, so the regulatory opacity and market manipulation risks mentioned by the SEC before may be greater for Ethereum.

Therefore, most market participants, including big-name institutions such as Bitwise and Coinbase, do not have high expectations for approval. Coinbase gave the probability of 30% to 40% approval of the Ethereum spot ETF, while Katherine Dowling, general counsel of Bitwise, said more directly, Most people expect the SEC not to approve it.

However, these views have reversed today.

The reason is that Nate Geraci, president of ETFStore, tweeted on X, raising a potential possibility: Due to the deadline of the process, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must decide whether to approve the spot Ethereum ETF this week. However, the complete listing process requires the submission of two forms: an exchange rule change (19 b-4 s) and the approval of the registration statement (S-1 s), both of which are required for the launch of the ETF. Geraci pointed out that if the SEC wants to drag it out, in theory the SEC may approve 19 b-4 s and then slowly process S-1 s, especially given that the SEC has remained silent on related matters at present, which is very different from the previous activity in Bitcoin ETFs.

Later, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas reposted the post and proposed that the probability of spot Ethereum ETF approval has been raised from 25% to 75%. He said: I heard some rumors this afternoon that the SEC may make a 180-degree turn on this issue (based on some political reasons), so everyone is preparing now. He also reiterated that the probability will be capped at 75% until more evidence is seen, such as application updates.

Later, his colleague James Seyffart added, “Eric Balchunas raised the odds of spot Ethereum ETF approval to 75%. But that’s for the May 23 deadline for the 19 b-4 (VanEck’s deadline). We also need S-1 approval. It could be weeks to months before we see S-1 approval and an actual Ethereum ETF go live.”

Later, Fox reporter Eleanor Terrett said that a source claimed that the current development of the spot Ethereum ETF is: Things are evolving in real time. In the current context, that is to say, the general belief that it will not be approved may change. At the same time, according to CoinDesk, the SEC requires exchanges to speed up the update of the 19 B-4 document on the spot Ethereum ETF.

This series of signals basically indicates that the SEC’s attitude towards the Ethereum ETF may reverse. From the previous indifference (which is likely to indicate disapproval) to the current changes, the market has quickly rebounded to this series of good news.

The market’s response to this is very interesting. Under the tweet that “things are changing in real time,” retail investors commented:

Things are changing? My net worth is changing in real time.

This article is sourced from the internet: The bull market is coming back quickly: With a polar reversal, is it very likely that the SEC will approve the Ethereum ETF?