SignalPlus Volatility Column (20240516): Macroeconomics is positive, BTC returns to 66,000

Yesterday (15 May 24), important economic data was released. In the past few days, three consecutive inflation data exceeded expectations, while the US CPI index was roughly in line with expectations; retail data was unexpectedly flat, continuing the recent weakness in consumer data. Although the current inflation level and momentum are still far higher than the Feds target, these two data have eased market concerns about the re-acceleration of prices to a certain extent, restored market confidence in the Feds September rate cut, and US Treasury yields fell in the short term. The three major US stock indexes also closed up about 1%, setting a record high.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar

Fuente: Invertir

In terms of digital currencies, boosted by the weakening of US economic data, the price of BTC has been rising all the way to break through the 66,000 mark, attracting the communitys carnival. The recent inflow of BTC Spot ETF is also relatively healthy. Although IBIT no longer has growth, the total inflow per day yesterday reached 303 $m, mainly contributed by FBTC and BITB. On the other hand, from the comparison chart below, we can see that ETHs performance in this round of market is relatively poor. In the past 24 hours, it has only gained half of BTCs increase and returned to the vicinity of 3,000 US dollars.

Fuente: TradingView

Fuente: Inversores de Farside

In terms of options, the implied volatility levels of BTC and ETH also showed very different changes. The main change of BTC is reflected in the upward movement of the medium- and long-term IV. The block trades in the past day are also mainly distributed in the medium- and long-term. The largest one is the Long Straddle of 277.5 BTC per leg, which is bullish on the volatility at the end of June, and the diagonal spread of selling May and buying June Call. The front-end IV of ETH fell sharply, attracting a group of Buy 17 MAY vs Sell 24 MAY transactions with a volume of up to 19,450 ETH per leg on the block. At the same time, there are also many call options positions on the option chain at the end of May. Although ETH has performed relatively poorly recently, there are still traders who are paying for its next upside space.

Source: Deribit (as of 16 MAY 16: 00 UTC+ 8)

Fuente: SignalPlus

Fuente de datos: Deribit, distribución general de transacciones ETH

Fuente de datos: Deribit, distribución general de transacciones BTC

Fuente: Deribit Block Trade

Fuente: Deribit Block Trade

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