Sam Altmans New Years Outlook: The first AI agents are expected to join the workforce this year

Originalautor: Sam Altman

Originalübersetzung: TechFlow

ChatGPT’s second birthday is just over a month away, and we’ve entered a new era of models capable of complex reasoning. A new year is always a time for reflection, and I wanted to take this opportunity to share some personal reflections on this journey and some of the things I’ve learned along the way.

As we get closer to AGI, now is an important moment to reflect on how far we’ve come as a company. There are still many unknowns to explore, many unsolved problems, and it’s still early days. But we’ve learned a lot more than when we started.

We founded OpenAI about nine years ago because we believed that AGI was possible and had the potential to be the most impactful technology in human history. We wanted to find ways to build AGI and ensure that it would benefit humanity broadly, and we also wanted to write our own page in history. Our goals are extremely ambitious, and we firmly believe that this work can give back to society in equally ambitious ways.

At the time, almost no one cared about AGI, and if anyone did, it was mostly because they thought we couldn’t possibly succeed.

In 2022, OpenAI was still a low-key research lab, working on a project tentatively called Chat With GPT-3.5. (We are indeed much better at research than naming.) We noticed that developers really liked the experience of talking to the model through the playground feature of the API. So we thought that building a demo around this conversational experience would not only show people what is possible in the future, but also help us improve the performance and safety of our models.

In the end, we decided to name it ChatGPT and officially launch it on November 30, 2022.

We had always vaguely known that the AI revolution would arrive someday, but we didn’t know what that moment would look like. To our surprise, this launch was that turning point.

The launch of ChatGPT has triggered an unprecedented wave of growth – both in our company, the industry, and around the world. We finally see the huge potential brought by AI, and we can foresee that there will be more breakthroughs on the way in the future.

The road has not been smooth, and making the right choice is never easy.

Over the past two years, we have built an entire company around this new technology from almost nothing. With challenges like this, the only way to learn is by doing. When the technology itself is new, no one can tell you exactly how to do it.

Building a company at such a fast pace, with little existing experience to draw on, was bound to be a chaotic process. We often took two steps forward and one step back (or even one step forward and two steps back, at times). While mistakes were corrected along the way, there were few manuals or clear directions to follow when navigating new territory. Moving quickly into unknown territory was an exhilarating experience, but it was also a source of great stress for all involved. Conflicts and misunderstandings were inevitable.

These years have been the most rewarding, fun, and fulfilling, but also the most exhausting and stressful, of my life. The last two years in particular have been the hardest, but I am most grateful. I know that one day, when I’m retired and sitting on my farm watching the plants grow and feeling a little bored, I’ll think back to how lucky I was to have had the opportunity to fulfill my childhood dream. I try to remind myself of this every Friday, even if it’s sometimes 1 p.m. and seven things have gone wrong.

About a year ago, on a Friday, I was fired from my job during a video call with absolutely no warning. The board published a blog post announcing the news right after we hung up. I was in a hotel room in Las Vegas, and it was like a dream that suddenly turned into a nightmare.

Being fired publicly without warning set off hours of chaos, followed by days of uncertainty. The strangest thing was the state of “information chaos.” None of us could get a clear answer about what happened or why.

In my opinion, this entire incident was a failure of governance, despite the good intentions of those involved, myself included. Looking back, I certainly wish I had handled things differently. I also like to believe that I am more mature and thoughtful today than I was a year ago.

This incident made me realize that a board needs to have diverse perspectives and rich experience to meet complex challenges. Good governance needs to be built on a deep foundation of trust and credibility. I am grateful that many people have worked together to build a stronger governance system for OpenAI so that we can continue to pursue our mission of AGI for the benefit of all humanity.

My biggest realization this year is that I have so much to be grateful for and so many people to thank: thank you to all my colleagues at OpenAI who have chosen to invest their time and energy in realizing this dream; thank you to our friends who have supported us in times of crisis; thank you to our customers and partners who have trusted us, worked with us, and relied on our technology to succeed; and thank you to the people in my life who have shown me that they care.

We returned to work in a more united and motivated way. I’m incredibly proud of the focus we’ve shown since then. We’ve done some of the best research work ever at OpenAI. We’ve grown from about 100 million weekly active users to over 300 million. Most importantly, we’ve continued to bring technology to the world that people really love and that solves real problems.

Nine years ago, we had no idea where we would end up. Even today, we have only a vague idea of what the future holds. The development of AI has been full of ups and downs, and we expect more challenges and opportunities in the future.

Some of these changes have been gratifying, while others have been challenging. The continued emergence of research breakthroughs has been exciting, and many former skeptics have now become staunch supporters. Of course, we have also witnessed some colleagues choose to leave and become our competitors. As the team continues to grow, personnel turnover is inevitable, and OpenAIs expansion speed is particularly amazing. Startups usually experience personnel changes every time they scale up, but at OpenAI, this change occurs almost every few months. The changes in the past two years are almost equivalent to the development of an ordinary company in ten years. When an industry-leading company grows at such a fast pace, it is inevitable that the goals and priorities of team members will diverge. At the same time, as a leader in the industry, we have inevitably become the target of various criticisms and attacks, especially pressure from competitors.

Our vision has never changed, but our strategy will continue to adjust and evolve over time. For example, in the beginning, we never thought that we would need to build a product company. We thought we only needed to focus on doing excellent research. Similarly, we did not expect that we would need such a huge amount of funds to support our work. Now, we need to build many things that we could not even imagine a few years ago. And in the future, there will definitely be more new challenges waiting for us that we cannot foresee at present.

We are proud of our achievements in research and technology application so far, and we are committed to continuing to explore in-depth aspects of safety and benefit sharing. We have always believed that the best way to make AI systems safe is to gradually and rhythmically introduce them to the world, giving society enough time to adapt and evolve with technology. We will continue to learn from practical applications and continuously improve the safety of technology. We know that it is crucial to become a leader in global safety and alignment research, and that such research needs to be Führungd by real-world feedback.

Today, we are confident that we have the tools to build AGI as traditionally defined. We believe that by 2025, we may see the first AI agents “join the workforce” and significantly improve the productivity of businesses. This will be a historic moment. We continue to believe that gradually putting great tools in people’s hands is the best way to achieve broad and far-reaching impact.

We have begun to set our sights on a more ambitious goal, the pursuit of true superintelligence. While we are passionate about our current products, our mission is to work on that wonderful future. With superintelligence, we will be able to achieve all possible goals. Superintelligent tools will greatly accelerate scientific discovery and technological innovation, helping us solve complex problems that are beyond human ability alone, thereby significantly improving the wealth and prosperity of society.

Now, this all may sound like science fiction, or even crazy to even talk about. But that’s okay — we’ve faced similar situations before, and we’re excited to take on this challenge again. We are very confident that in the coming years, everyone will see the promise we see, and realize how important it is to exercise great caution while maximizing general benefit and empowerment. Given the potential and possibilities of our work, OpenAI is not destined to be a normal company.

I feel lucky and honored to be able to be part of this cause.

(Thanks to Josh Tyrangiel for the inspiration. I wish we had more time to talk.)

Many people contributed tremendously to OpenAI and myself during those few days, but two people stood out.

Ron Conway and Brian Chesky have gone above and beyond the call of duty to help me, and I dont even know how to express my gratitude. I have long heard of Rons abilities and perseverance, and I have received countless help and advice from Brian over the past few years.

But it’s only when you work side by side with people in real crisis situations that you can truly see their extraordinary abilities. I can say without exaggeration that without their help, OpenAI might have collapsed. They worked day and night for days until the problem was completely solved.

Despite the intensity of their work, they remained calm, demonstrated clear strategic thinking, and provided invaluable advice. They prevented me from making several mistakes, without making any themselves. They utilized their extensive network of contacts to meet all needs and successfully navigated many complex situations. I am sure they also did many things that I was not aware of.

However, what touched me most was their care, compassion and support.

I thought I knew how to support a founder and a company, and to some extent I did. But I had never seen or even heard of support like theirs. Now I understand why they have such a legendary reputation. They are truly special and fully deserve it. They all have an extraordinary ability to help at critical moments, despite all odds, and demonstrate unwavering commitment. Our tech industry is better for them.

Of course, there are others like them. Thats what makes the tech industry special, more important than people think, and what makes the industry tick. I look forward to passing that spirit on.

On a more personal note, I would especially like to thank Ollie for his support that weekend and all the time. He is unparalleled in every way and you could not ask for a better partner.

This article is sourced from the internet: Sam Altmans New Years Outlook: The first AI agents are expected to join the workforce this year

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