Trump gewinnt die Wahl – wie schätzen Händler die Marktaussichten ein?

The election dust has settled and Trump has been re-elected as President of the United States.

Funds could no longer be held back, and Bitcoin rose violently when the key swing state of Pennsylvania turned positive. The super asset with a market value of trillions of dollars quickly rose by 3 points, and key integers were broken through continuously. The market finally waited for Bitcoins historical high.

$75, 000 for a brand new future.

New highs mean that everything will be replanned. So what do top traders think of Bitcoin after Trump’s election? BlockBeats has compiled some for you, hoping to provide a reference.

Trumps influence on Bitcoin

PlanB: BTC is expected to reach $1 million by the end of 25

PlanB is the creator of the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model and is well-known in the Krypto industry for his unique model of the relationship between asset scarcity and price. His analysis looks at the growth potential of Bitcoins long-term value, especially price fluctuations after the halving event. His latest forecast points out that if Trump wins the upcoming presidential election, the Bitcoin market may usher in an unprecedented price surge. PlanB constructs a series of monthly timelines to show the direction of Bitcoins price development under different market scenarios.

In the forecast a few months ago, PlanB gave specific values based on its own model S 2 F:

October: Classic Bullish Month, BTC Reaches $70,000

PlanB predicts that the price of Bitcoin will see a strong rise in October. He believes that the surge in Bitcoin may be driven by increased volatility in the global market and the recovery of investor confidence, which is also the point in time when Bitcoin has shown a surge in price many times in history.

November: Trump wins the election, Bitcoin price reaches $100,000

If Trump wins the election, PlanB believes that Bitcoin will usher in a major turning point. He pointed out that Trumps coming to power may bring friendly policies to cryptocurrencies, thus ending the current Biden/Harris administrations war on cryptocurrencies, especially the policy checks and balances on senior regulators such as Gary Gensler and Elizabeth Warren, which will cause the price of Bitcoin to climb directly to $100,000.

December: ETF funds pour in, Bitcoin soars to $150,000

PlanB believes that Trumps victory will clear the way for the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, and a large amount of funds are expected to flow into the market. The inflow of ETFs represents the acceptance and recognition of the mainstream financial market and the trust of investors, which will further push the price of Bitcoin to $150,000.

January 2025: Crypto returns to the US, Bitcoin climbs to $200,000

As the Trump administration opens up to cryptocurrency policies, a large number of crypto industry companies and investors may bring their businesses back to the United States. PlanB predicts that this will have a significant market demand effect, pushing the price of Bitcoin to $200,000.

February 2025: The Power Law team exits with a profit, and the price falls back to $150,000

The February pullback is a prediction of a correction in the Bitcoin market. PlanB believes that investors’ profit-taking will cause Bitcoin to briefly fall back to $150,000 after hitting a high. However, this adjustment will be short-lived and necessary, laying a more stable foundation for the next stage of the rise.

March to May 2025: Bitcoin globalization trend, price breaks through $500,000

Starting from March, PlanB expects Bhutan, Argentina, Dubai and other countries to gradually use Bitcoin as legal tender, and starting from April, the United States will also start a strategic reserve of Bitcoin under the promotion of Trump. Then, in May, he believes that other countries, especially non-EU countries, will join this trend, causing Bitcoin to further climb to $500,000.

June 2025: AI-powered, $600,000

In June, PlanB proposed the hypothesis that artificial intelligence began to autonomously participate in arbitrage in the Bitcoin market. He predicted that with the participation of AI in the Bitcoin market, this high-frequency Handel will further drive the price up, causing Bitcoin to exceed $600,000.

July-December 2025: FOMO subsides, price reaches $1 million

In the following months, PlanB believes that the markets FOMO sentiment has begun to subside, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a new high of $1 million by the end of the year. At this time, Bitcoin has not only become a mainstream asset reserve, but also a must-have for global investors.

2026-2027 — Markt Correction and Bear Market

In 2026, PlanB predicts that the price of Bitcoin will pull back from $1 million to $500,000 and enter the distribution stage. By 2027, the market will enter a bear market and the price of Bitcoin is expected to drop to $200,000.

PlanB concluded that the key to this prediction lies in the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He pointed out that scarcity will become a core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold. PlanB believes that in the next 18 months, Bitcoin prices are expected to jump due to the halving effect and market demand, thereby continuing to consolidate its position as digital gold among global investors.

The key to PlanBs prediction is the scarcity value of Bitcoin. He pointed out that investors like scarcity, and there are basically three options for scarcity now: real estate (S2F100, market value of $10 trillion), gold (S2F60, market value of $20 trillion) or Bitcoin (S2F120, market value of $1 trillion). Therefore, the scarcity of Bitcoin will become a core factor driving asset prices, just like scarce assets such as real estate and gold.

Alex Krüger: BTC spot will be the main currency on election night

Alex Krüger, an Argentine economist, trader and consultant, believes that the election results will directly affect the direction of Bitcoin prices:

Trump wins: Bitcoin price target is $90,000 by the end of the year. Krüger estimates that if Trump wins, Bitcoin price will quickly reach $90,000 by the end of the year, giving a 55% probability of realization. In this scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin price will soar rapidly because the market has partially anticipated the positive impact of Trumps victory on cryptocurrencies. However, there is still a certain degree of price underestimation, and the markets rapid reaction will be reflected soon after the news is confirmed.

Krüger stressed the importance of timing, especially for leveraged investors. He pointed out that if the market confirms Trumps victory, the price of Bitcoin will rise rapidly. Krügers personal operation is an unleveraged position (mainly Bitcoin and some technology stocks such as Nvidia). He believes that spot positions should be the main focus to avoid the volatility risks brought by high leverage.

At the same time, Krüger said that regardless of the election results, he remains optimistic about the U.S. stock market. He pointed out that the rise and fall of the stock market will directly affect Bitcoin, because the price of Bitcoin is highly correlated with the U.S. stock index. Especially in the scenario of Trumps victory, he expects that more friendly cryptocurrency policies and growth-oriented economic measures will drive the stock market higher, which will in turn benefit Bitcoin.

At present, Krüger pointed out that the market has partially priced in Trumps victory. As for the strategy on election night, Krüger said that he will mainly hold Bitcoin spot and take long-term operations when Trump wins, such as increasing his holdings of Solana (SOL).

The Giver: Midterms will fall after the election

The Giver is an anonymous senior investor with extensive experience in buy-side and sell-side financial institutions. He currently works in special situation private equity, providing a different perspective. The Givers strategy is more conservative and short-term-focused than Krüger and PlanB. He believes that the election-driven rise in Bitcoin is more of a temporary phenomenon than a long-term trend. This view places special emphasis on the driving effects of market liquidity and short-term events, and points out that Bitcoin may see a downward adjustment after the election. His specific analysis is:

The driving force behind Bitcoins rise this time is from event-driven non-sticky buyers, that is, some short-term speculators seeking to hedge against election risks, not due to overall trends. These buyers will not hold Bitcoin for a long time, and they may quickly exit the market once the election dust settles. Therefore, these funds lack stickiness and Bitcoin prices may face selling pressure after the election.

The sluggish performance of altcoins and the concentration of Bitcoin. In his opinion, the inflow of funds is mainly concentrated in Bitcoin, but not widely in altcoins, which leads to the sluggish performance of altcoins. This shows that the current capital flow is more based on Bitcoin as a hedging tool, rather than the benefit of the entire crypto market.

The Giver expects that Bitcoins open interest and positions will continue to be crowded this week, and even reach new highs. He pointed out that this right-side effect may bring a short-term surge in Bitcoin prices, but it is unlikely to last into the next year due to the limited market capacity in the fourth quarter of 2024. This short-term effect makes it more likely that Bitcoin prices will peak before the election, but the speculative liquidity behind it is not enough to support a long-term rally.

Markus: Hedging strategy of long BTC and short SOL

Markus Thielen is a well-known analyst at Matrixport and 10X Research. His prediction of Bitcoins market value of $1 trillion a few months ago was extremely accurate and quickly spread among the investment community, making him famous.

Markus latest analysis is based on 10X Researchs latest signal model, which has a hit rate of 73% to 87%, usually achieved within 2 weeks to 9 months. He predicts that if the price of Bitcoin continues to develop along the historical trend, it may rise by 8% in the next two weeks, 13% in a month, 26% in two months, and 40% in three months. Based on this calculation, the price of Bitcoin may exceed $100,000 by January 27, 2025, and reach a target of about $140,000 on April 29, 2025.

Regarding the election results, Markus analyzed the impact of different election results on Bitcoin and other crypto assets. If Trump wins, Markus predicts that Bitcoin may rise by 5%, and Solana and Ethereum may also gain similar gains. He believes that Trumps victory will bring a more cryptocurrency-friendly policy environment, which is expected to drive the market up.

Of course, we have also prepared for unexpected situations, so Markus suggested a strategy of long Bitcoin and short Solana to hedge against the uncertainty brought about by the election. However, Markus also pointed out that if the election results are delayed or controversial, this will increase market uncertainty and may lead to increased volatility in Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered analyst: If Trump wins, BTC will rise to $125,000 by the end of the year

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick predicts that if Trump wins the November election, the price of Bitcoin could climb to $125,000 by the end of the year.

Kendrick’s model shows that Bitcoin could stabilize around $73,000 on Election Day (November 5). In the event of a Trump victory, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to rise by about 4% immediately and another 10% in the following days, with rising market confidence and a looser regulatory environment becoming the main drivers.

Who becomes president, and how much impact will other assets have?

The market generally believes that transactions after Trumps victory are more complicated. The asset categories that are more bullish include cryptocurrencies such as gold and Bitcoin. US stocks and the US dollar may show a trend of short-term rise but medium-term correction. However, assets such as crude oil, US bonds, and copper may be affected to a certain extent.

US stocks

Trumps victory is expected to benefit small-cap stocks and certain industries in the U.S. stock market, especially traditional energy, gun manufacturing, private prison operators and small retailers. Since Trump prefers low taxes and reduced regulations, especially for domestic manufacturing, corporate tax cuts and his support for the energy and mining industries may drive small-cap stocks up. The Russell 2000 Index (small-cap benchmark) has begun to reflect this expectation, rising by about 4% since early October.

The US Dollar and the Foreign Austausch Markt

The expectation of a Trump victory has been reflected in the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Mexican peso, which is considered one of the currencies most affected by Trumps immigration policies. Market volatility has also increased significantly when Trumps election prospects have improved, with the MSCI Latin American Currency Index falling more than 3%, while the US dollar has strengthened significantly after Trumps statement on import tariffs on Mexican goods.

Oil and Copper

If Trump wins the election, traditional energy industries (such as oil and fossil fuels) may rise due to Trumps supportive policies. Trumps energy policies tend to reduce regulations and support domestic mining and fossil fuel use, which will have a positive impact on related markets.

US Treasury Bonds

Trumps victory is a short-term positive for US bonds. In the interest rate and bond markets, market analysts said that smart money has begun to pay attention to the bond market. The yield of US bonds may rise due to the expectation of Trumps victory. In the long run, under the influence of fiscal expansion and inflation risks, US bonds may face greater selling pressure.

gold

As the most traditional inflation hedging tool, gold seems to continue to rise regardless of who wins the election. Analysts generally believe that the US government debt problem will continue to expand and will be diluted through inflation. Therefore, gold and Bitcoin have become the main choices for investors to hedge against inflation. Gold, due to its safe-haven properties, will attract investors to cope with the potential depreciation pressure of the US dollar and economic uncertainty.

However, analysts at Standard Chartered Bank pointed out that gold is more likely to rise after Trumps victory, as the market generally expects more fiscal spending after Trumps victory, which will drive inflation in the short term and further increase demand for gold.

Suddenly becoming a loyal crypto player, how much does Trump like Bitcoin?

Once upon a time, Trump was a staunch opponent of cryptocurrency. In early 2019, while still in office, Trump publicly criticized Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, saying they were empty value and believed that crypto assets could be used as tools for illegal activities. He said Bitcoin was not a currency and was extremely volatile.

After leaving the White House, Trump continued to be reserved in interviews, calling Bitcoin a scam and insisting that the U.S. dollar should be the worlds only reserve currency. During this period, Trumps attitude towards cryptocurrencies was generally negative. But the NFT trend in 2021 soon began to influence Trumps views.

The story begins in 2022. At that time, the cryptocurrency market was in a cold winter, many crypto projects were on the verge of bankruptcy, and market confidence was low. At this time, Trumps long-term adviser Bill Zanker appeared in his life and brought a suggestion to change Trumps mind: issuing Trump-themed NFTs.

Trump showed unexpected interest in this – however, he did not like the term NFT, preferring to call it digital trading cards. Although it seemed strange, these cards were very popular, priced at $99 each, and were almost sold out after they were released. Trumps NFT actually allowed the former president to stand in front of crypto people for the first time, not only bringing him tens of millions of dollars in income, but also allowing him to discover a new and powerful support group.

As a result, Trumps attitude towards encryption has completely reversed in the past few years.

November 1, 2024 is the 16th anniversary of the release of the Bitcoin white paper. Trump tweeted his blessing for Bitcoin and said that if elected, he would end the Harris administrations crackdown on cryptocurrencies and even called on supporters to help him realize his vision of Bitcoin Made in America. At this point, he is no longer an opponent or even just a bystander, but a presidential candidate of a crypto advocate.

The most iconic event was his attendance at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, where Trump announced that he would become a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency. He even understood the biggest pain points in the crypto community and promised to fire current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and replace him with a regulator who understands crypto.

He bluntly stated that opposition to encryption is a wrong policy and that he would make the United States a Bitcoin superpower and hoped to lead the development of the global encryption industry through a more friendly regulatory environment. He even praised Bitcoin as the core of the modern economy, saying that if Bitcoin is to go to the moon in the future, he hopes that the United States can become the leader.

Trump attended the Bitcoin 2024 conference. Source: WSJ

In his speech, Trump tried his best to contrast himself with the Democratic Partys strict stance on cryptocurrencies, especially comparing himself with Elizabeth Warren, who is known for crypto regulation. He also pointed out that if elected, he would create a Presidential Cryptocurrency Advisory Committee. Trumps statement immediately triggered warm applause and cheers from the audience. Even more shocking, he also proposed that the market value of Bitcoin may surpass gold in the future, and publicly criticized the anti-crypto policies of the Biden and Harris administrations.

During the conference, Trump seemed to have experienced a public awakening. He was no longer the former president who was skeptical of cryptocurrencies, but became a defender of Bitcoin and the free market. The audience was infected by his change of attitude and regarded him as a hero in the crypto circle.

Trump attended the Bitcoin 2024 conference. Source: The New York Times

Another detail behind this transformation reveals the subtle connection between Trump and cryptocurrency. At the conference, he looked at the crypto supporters in the crowd and mentioned that Bitcoin had risen 3,900% during his last presidency, from less than $1,000 to more than $30,000. His speech not only ignited the audience, but also gained the support of Bitcoin industry giants, such as Elon Musk, twin brother Winklevoss, and Marc Andreessen, founder of venture capital giant A16Z, all expressed support for his crypto policy.

In addition to Bitcoin itself, Trump has gradually realized the important role of Bitcoin mining in the United States energy security and economic sovereignty. In June 2024, he met with executives from several large Bitcoin mining companies in the United States and promised to strongly support cryptocurrency mining activities in terms of policy. He even posted on the Truth Social platform that Bitcoin mining is the last line of defense against central bank digital currency (CBDC) and hopes that all remaining Bitcoins will be made in the United States. In Trumps view, Bitcoin mining is not just an economic activity, it also symbolizes the United States will to fight against the central bank.

In September, Trump bought a cheeseburger with Bitcoin at PubKey, a Bitcoin-themed bar in New York. This move also promoted the possibility of pulling Bitcoin back from a financial investment product to a daily trading currency, and became a symbol of his crypto stance.

Trump also made a bigger promise to the crypto community, not only publicly stating that he would keep a strategic reserve of Bitcoin, but also planning to pardon Rose Ulbricht, who was sentenced to life imprisonment for operating a dark web platform. Through these radical measures, Trump successfully made himself the savior of the crypto community. He promised to protect Bitcoin from excessive government regulation and to make the United States the center of global cryptocurrency.

Amid the suspense of whether Trump will return to the White House, the future of Bitcoin and the entire crypto market seems to be at a crossroads. In the past few years, political turmoil, policy changes, and global economic uncertainty have pushed Bitcoin step by step to new heights. If Trump comes to power again, his support for cryptocurrencies may undoubtedly trigger a new frenzy in the market, bringing Bitcoin to new heights and even reshaping the financial landscape of the United States.

This article is sourced from the internet: Trump wins the election, how do traders view the market outlook?

Related: A look at the U.S. Treasury Department’s report on crypto assets and Treasury bond markets

Original translation: Pzai, Foresight News Crypto asset growth and usage trends Crypto assets have experienced rapid growth, albeit from a small base. Growth has come both from native cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, and from stablecoins. Cryptocurrency market capitalization chart Cryptocurrency adoption by households and industries has so far been limited to holding crypto assets for investment purposes, crypto asset market capitalization remains low relative to other financial and physical assets, and growth to date does not appear to have cannibalized demand for Treasury securities. Crypto asset use cases are evolving, but interest is primarily along two tracks: Bitcoin’s primary use appears to be as a store of value in the DeFi world, aka “digital gold.” Speculative interest appears to have played a prominent role in crypto growth so…