Bericht zur Stimmungsforschung am Kryptomarkt (09.08.-16.08.2024): Leichte Schwankungen der Preisspanne bei den Inflationsdaten

Mild inflation data, price range fluctuations

Bildquelle: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/13/wednesdays-cpi-report-could-mark-a-change-in-thinking-for-the-fed.html?qsearchterm=CPI

Bildquelle: https://hk.investing.com/

This week, two important inflation data, PPI and CPI, were released. CNBC said the data showed that the United States has passed the environment of ultra-high inflation. Moderate inflation data may mean that the Federal Reserve can turn its attention to other economic challenges, such as employment rate.

Data: PPI data, an indicator of producer inflation, showed that prices rose by only 0.2% in July and were up about 2.2% year-on-year. This figure is now very close to the Feds 2% target, indicating that market expectations for the central bank to start cutting interest rates are basically on target.

CPI data, an indicator of consumer inflation, showed a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9% over the past 12 months, a figure that, while much lower than the high point in mid-2022, is still far from the Feds 2% target.

In terms of market conditions: After the release of the PPI data at 20:30 on the evening of the 13th, Hong Kong time, the market began to rise, and Bitcoin rose from 59,000 to around 61,500. It was not until the release of the CPI data at 20:30 on the 14th that the market began to fall, and Bitcoin fell from 61,500 to around 58,000.

Future events: The latest employment rate data will be released on September 6, the latest CPI and PPI data will be released on September 11 and 12, and the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate decision at 02:00 Hong Kong time on September 19. September will be a critical node. If the Federal Reserve decides to cut interest rates, the market may bring a new round of surprises.

There are about 33 days until the next Federal Reserve interest rate meeting (September 19, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Analyse des technischen Marktes und der Stimmungslage

Komponenten der Stimmungsanalyse

Technische Indikatoren

Price Trends

BTC price fell -6.72% and ETH price fell -4.2% in the past week.

Das obige Bild ist das Preisdiagramm von BTC der letzten Woche.

Das obige Bild ist das Preisdiagramm von ETH der letzten Woche.

Die Tabelle zeigt die Preisänderungsrate der letzten Woche.

Preis-Volumen-Verteilungsdiagramm (Unterstützung und Widerstand)

In the past week, both BTC and ETH have been fluctuating downward in a range of dense trading areas.

Das obige Bild zeigt die Verteilung der BTC-Handelsgebiete mit hoher Dichte in der vergangenen Woche.

Das obige Bild zeigt die Verteilung der ETH-Handelsgebiete mit hoher Dichte in der vergangenen Woche.

Die Tabelle zeigt die wöchentliche intensive Handelsspanne von BTC und ETH in der vergangenen Woche.

Volumen und offenes Interesse

In the past week, both BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they rebounded sharply on August 12; the open interest of BTC increased while that of ETH decreased.

Oben im obigen Bild ist der Preistrend von BTC dargestellt, in der Mitte das Handelsvolumen, unten das offene Interesse, hellblau ist der 1-Tages-Durchschnitt und orange der 7-Tages-Durchschnitt. Die Farbe der K-Linie stellt den aktuellen Zustand dar, grün bedeutet, dass der Preisanstieg durch das Handelsvolumen unterstützt wird, rot bedeutet, dass Positionen geschlossen werden, gelb bedeutet, dass Positionen langsam akkumuliert werden und schwarz bedeutet, dass der Zustand überfüllt ist.

Oben im obigen Bild ist der Preistrend von ETH dargestellt, in der Mitte das Handelsvolumen, unten das offene Interesse, hellblau der 1-Tages-Durchschnitt und orange der 7-Tages-Durchschnitt. Die Farbe der K-Linie stellt den aktuellen Zustand dar, grün bedeutet, dass der Preisanstieg durch das Handelsvolumen unterstützt wird, rot bedeutet, dass Positionen geschlossen werden, gelb bedeutet, dass Positionen langsam angesammelt werden und schwarz bedeutet, dass Positionen überfüllt sind.

Historische Volatilität vs. implizite Volatilität

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when they rebounded sharply on August 12; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH both decreased.

Die gelbe Linie ist die historische Volatilität, die blaue Linie die implizite Volatilität und der rote Punkt ist der 7-Tage-Durchschnitt.

Ereignisgesteuert

The PPI and CPI inflation data were released this past week. After the PPI data was released at 20:30 on the evening of the 13th Hong Kong time, the market began to rise, and Bitcoin rose from 59,000 to around 61,500. It was not until 20:30 on the 14th when the CPI data was released that the market began to fall, and Bitcoin fell from 61,500 to around 58,000.

Stimmungsindikatoren

Momentum-Stimmung

In der vergangenen Woche war der Nasdaq unter den Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300 am stärksten, während Bitcoin am schlechtesten abschnitt.

Das obige Bild zeigt den Trend verschiedener Vermögenswerte in der vergangenen Woche.

Kreditzins_Kreditstimmung

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 8.1%, and short-term interest rates remained at 6.7%.

Die gelbe Linie stellt den höchsten Preis des USD-Zinssatzes dar, die blaue Linie entspricht 75% des höchsten Preises und die rote Linie ist der 7-Tage-Durchschnitt von 75% des höchsten Preises.

Die Tabelle zeigt die durchschnittlichen Renditen der USD-Zinssätze an verschiedenen Haltetagen in der Vergangenheit

Finanzierungsrate_Vertragshebelstimmung

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 0.2%, and contract leverage sentiment continued to decline.

Die blaue Linie ist die Finanzierungsrate von BTC auf Binance und die rote Linie ist der 7-Tage-Durchschnitt

Die Tabelle zeigt die durchschnittliche Rendite der BTC-Gebühren für verschiedene Haltetage in der Vergangenheit.

Marktkorrelation_Konsensstimmung

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week was around 0.45, and the consistency between different varieties has dropped from a high level.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Marktbreite_Gesamtstimmung

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 4% of them were priced above the 30-day moving average, 24% of them were priced above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 6% of them were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 7% of them were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicator in the past week showed that most coins in the overall market maintained a downward trend.

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Zusammenfassen

In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) showed a volatile downward trend, especially when the historical volatility and trading volume reached a peak during the sharp drop and rebound on August 12. The open interest of BTC increased, while that of ETH decreased. The implied volatility decreased. Bitcoin performed the worst in comparison with gold, Nasdaq, Hang Seng Index and CSI 300, while Nasdaq performed the strongest. Bitcoins funding rate continued to decline, reflecting the continued decline in market participants interest in its leveraged trading. The correlation between the selected 129 currencies remained at around 0.45, showing that the consistency between different varieties has declined from a high level. The market breadth indicator shows that most cryptocurrencies in the overall market are still in a downward trend. The market began to rise after the PPI data was released on the 13th, and then the market began to fall after the CPI data was released on the 14th.

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This article is sourced from the internet: Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (2024.08.09-08.16): Mild Inflation Data Price Range Fluctuation

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