Crypto Market Sentiment Research Report (12.07.-19.07.2024): Trumps Ermordung treibt Bitcoin nach oben

Trump assassination drives Bitcoin surge

The rising probability of Trumps victory has made risky assets such as Bitcoin popular. In particular, the Republican Party mentioned in its latest campaign platform that if Trump takes office, it will end the suppression of cryptocurrencies, which has greatly boosted confidence in the cryptocurrency market.

The “Trump deal” is a hit.

After Trump was attacked over the weekend, a series of Trump-related assets such as U.S. Treasury yields and Bitcoin soared. This is all thanks to the fact that he survived the assassination attempt, and the American peoples support for Trump has soared.

Among them, Bitcoin rose for six consecutive days, with a total increase of 11.59% this week, reaching a high of US$66,000.

There are about 11 days until the next Fed meeting (August 1, 2024)

https://hk.investing.com/economic-calendar/interest-rate-decision-168

Analyse des technischen Marktes und der Stimmungslage

Komponenten der Stimmungsanalyse

Technische Indikatoren

Preisentwicklung

In the past week, BTC prices rose 11.59% and ETH prices rose 10.55%.

Das obige Bild ist das Preisdiagramm von BTC der letzten Woche.

Das obige Bild ist das Preisdiagramm von ETH der letzten Woche.

Die Tabelle zeigt die Preisänderungsrate der letzten Woche.

Preis-Volumen-Verteilungsdiagramm (Unterstützung und Widerstand)

In the past week, BTC and ETH formed a new intensive trading area as they rose to high levels and increased in volume.

Das obige Bild zeigt die Verteilung der BTC-Handelsgebiete mit hoher Dichte in der vergangenen Woche.

Das obige Bild zeigt die Verteilung der ETH-Handelsgebiete mit hoher Dichte in der vergangenen Woche.

Die Tabelle zeigt die wöchentliche intensive Handelsspanne von BTC und ETH in der vergangenen Woche.

Volumen und offenes Interesse

In the past week, BTC and ETH had the largest trading volume when they rose from July 15 to 16; the open interest of BTC and ETH both fell slightly.

Oben im obigen Bild ist der Preistrend von BTC dargestellt, in der Mitte das Handelsvolumen, unten das offene Interesse, hellblau ist der 1-Tages-Durchschnitt und orange der 7-Tages-Durchschnitt. Die Farbe der K-Linie stellt den aktuellen Zustand dar, grün bedeutet, dass der Preisanstieg durch das Handelsvolumen unterstützt wird, rot bedeutet, dass Positionen geschlossen werden, gelb bedeutet, dass Positionen langsam akkumuliert werden und schwarz bedeutet, dass der Zustand überfüllt ist.

Oben im obigen Bild ist der Preistrend von ETH dargestellt, in der Mitte das Handelsvolumen, unten das offene Interesse, hellblau der 1-Tages-Durchschnitt und orange der 7-Tages-Durchschnitt. Die Farbe der K-Linie stellt den aktuellen Zustand dar, grün bedeutet, dass der Preisanstieg durch das Handelsvolumen unterstützt wird, rot bedeutet, dass Positionen geschlossen werden, gelb bedeutet, dass Positionen langsam angesammelt werden und schwarz bedeutet, dass Positionen überfüllt sind.

Historische Volatilität vs. implizite Volatilität

In the past week, the historical volatility of BTC and ETH was the highest when it rose to 7.16; the implied volatility of BTC and ETH rose synchronously.

Die gelbe Linie ist die historische Volatilität, die blaue Linie die implizite Volatilität und der rote Punkt ist der 7-Tage-Durchschnitt.

Ereignisgesteuert

There were no major data releases in the past week.

Stimmungsindikatoren

Momentum-Stimmung

In the past week, among Bitcoin/Gold/Nasdaq/Hang Seng Index/SSE 300, Bitcoin was the strongest, while Nasdaq performed the worst.

Das obige Bild zeigt den Trend verschiedener Vermögenswerte in der vergangenen Woche.

Kreditzins_Kreditstimmung

The average annualized return on USD lending over the past week was 8.9%, and short-term interest rates rose to 12.6%.

Die gelbe Linie stellt den höchsten Preis des USD-Zinssatzes dar, die blaue Linie entspricht 75% des höchsten Preises und die rote Linie ist der 7-Tage-Durchschnitt von 75% des höchsten Preises.

Die Tabelle zeigt die durchschnittlichen Renditen der USD-Zinssätze an verschiedenen Haltetagen in der Vergangenheit

Finanzierungsrate_Vertragshebelstimmung

The average annualized return on BTC fees in the past week was 4.4%, and contract leverage sentiment remained at a low level.

Die blaue Linie ist die Finanzierungsrate von BTC auf Binance und die rote Linie ist der 7-Tage-Durchschnitt

The table shows the average return of BTC fees for different holding days in the past.

Marktkorrelation_Konsensstimmung

The correlation among the 129 coins selected in the past week remained at around 0.9, and the consistency between different varieties increased significantly.

In the above picture, the blue line is the price of Bitcoin, and the green line is [1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, algo, ankr, ant, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, audio, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, bnb, btc, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, eth, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot, icp, icx , imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, ocean, one, ont, op, pendle, qnt, qtum, rndr, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx , sol, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wld, woo, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx] overall correlation

Marktbreite_Gesamtstimmung

Among the 129 coins selected in the past week, 78% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average, 37% of the prices were above the 30-day moving average relative to BTC, 33% of the prices were more than 20% away from the lowest price in the past 30 days, and 67.7% of the prices were less than 10% away from the highest price in the past 30 days. The market breadth indicators in the past week showed that most of the coins in the overall market rebounded and rose.

The picture above is [bnb, btc, sol, eth, 1000 floki, 1000 lunc, 1000 pepe, 1000 sats, 1000 shib, 100 0x ec, 1inch, aave, ada, agix, ai, algo, alt, ankr, ape, apt, arb, ar, astr, atom, avax, axs, bal, band, bat, bch, bigtime, blur, cake, celo, cfx, chz, ckb, comp, crv, cvx, cyber, dash, doge, dot, dydx, egld, enj, ens, eos,etc, fet, fil, flow, ftm, fxs, gala, gmt, gmx, grt, hbar, hot , icp, icx, idu, imx, inj, iost, iotx, jasmy, jto, jup, kava, klay, ksm, ldo, link, loom, lpt, lqty, lrc, ltc, luna 2, magic, mana, manta, mask, matic, meme, mina, mkr, near, neo, nfp, ocean, one, ont, op, ordi, pendle, pyth, qnt, qtum, rndr, robin, rose, rune, rvn, sand, sei, sfp, skl, snx, ssv, stg, storj, stx, sui, sushi, sxp, theta, tia, trx, t, uma, uni, vet, waves, wif, wld, woo,xai, xem, xlm, xmr, xrp, xtz, yfi, zec, zen, zil, zrx ] 30-day proportion of each width indicator

Zusammenfassen

In the past week, the prices of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) rose for 6 consecutive days, while the volatility and trading volume of these two cryptocurrencies reached the highest level when they rose on July 16. The open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum is declining. In addition, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum has also risen in tandem. Bitcoins funding rate remains at a low level, which may reflect the continued low leverage sentiment of market participants towards Bitcoin. Market breadth indicators show that most cryptocurrencies have rebounded and risen, indicating that the overall market has rebounded from lows in the past week.

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